URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla
Referee: A. Martinez
Cerro Largo
Match Timeline
Cerro
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
19'
Lucas Correa
Cerro Largo
🟨
23'
Tiago Rijo
Cerro
🟥
32'
Gianni Rodríguez
Cerro
🔄
34'
T. Rijo ↔ F. Bregante
Cerro
🔄
62'
M. Garcia ↔ A. Pandiani
Cerro Largo
🔄
70'
G. Viera ↔ D. Daguerre
Cerro Largo
🔄
71'
A. Cambon ↔ E. Sosa
Cerro
78'
M. Anasco
Cerro Largo
🔄
81'
B. Aleman ↔ P. Nongoy
Cerro
🔄
81'
M. Ocampo ↔ A. Mendez
Cerro
🔄
81'
C. Barros ↔ S. Paiva
Cerro
🟨
84'
Emiliano Sosa
Cerro
🔄
85'
M. Anasco ↔ N. Ramos
Cerro Largo
🟨
90+7'
Damián Suárez
Cerro
90'
N. Ramos
Cerro Largo

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
100%
-
BTTS BTTS No
40.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Cerro Largo Win 100%
Draw 0%
Cerro Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerro Largo1.33
Cerro0.83
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo
WWDLW
19 GF / 20 GA
Cerro Cerro
WLDWL
10 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.12
Average Goals Scored
0.59
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.65
6
BTTS Yes
7
7
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 17 matches
Cerro Cerro 17 matches
Cerro Largo Statistic Cerro
6 Wins 3
2 Draws 4
9 Losses 10
19 Goals For 10
20 Goals Against 28
1.12 Avg Goals Scored 0.59
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.65
6 BTTS Yes 7
10 Over 1.5 10
7 Over 2.5 6
4 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 3
7 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cerro. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cerro Largo expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Cerro in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cerro having the stronger overall control.

Cerro Largo Analysis

Cerro Largo sit 12 with 17 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 8 defeats with a 16:19 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on T. Correa (5 goals), A. Pandiani (4 goals), D. Daguerre (3 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cerro Analysis

Cerro sit 16 with 10 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 9 defeats with a 8:24 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on T. Correa (5 goals), A. Pandiani (4 goals), Alejo Macelli (3 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cerro Largo won 8 times, Cerro won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:7 from Cerro Largo's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1 (100%)
Predicted formations: Cerro Largo 4-4-2 / Cerro 5-3-2
H2H summary: Cerro Largo wins 8, draws 5, Cerro wins 2

Lineups

Cerro Largo
Formation
Cerro
P. M. Gonzalez Ojeda
P. M. Gonzalez Ojeda
A. Hernandez
A. Hernandez
L. Correa
L. Correa
M. Fracchia
M. Fracchia
S. Franca
S. Franca
M. Garcia
M. Garcia
S. Assis
S. Assis
S. Marcel
S. Marcel
M. Anasco
M. Anasco
T. Correa
T. Correa
G. Viera
G. Viera
Y. Irrazabal
Y. Irrazabal
D. Suarez
D. Suarez
A. Macelli
A. Macelli
A. Lima
A. Lima
G. Rodriguez
G. Rodriguez
J. Amaro
J. Amaro
M. Ocampo
M. Ocampo
C. Barros
C. Barros
B. Aleman
B. Aleman
T. Rijo
T. Rijo
A. Cambon
A. Cambon
Cerro Largo 4-3-3
Starting XI
12
P. M. Gonzalez Ojeda
G
17
A. Hernandez
D
14
L. Correa
🟨 19'
D
16
M. Fracchia
D
20
S. Franca
D
8
M. Garcia
↓ 62'
M
15
S. Assis
M
5
S. Marcel
M
11
M. Anasco
⚽ 78' ↓ 85'
M
9
T. Correa
F
7
G. Viera
↓ 70'
M
Substitutes
1
J. Moreno
G
2
G. F. Chocobar
D
28
N. Ramos
⚽ 90' ↑ 85'
D
4
F. Souza
D
22
N. Bertocchi
M
25
E. Jourdan
M
10
A. Pandiani
↑ 62'
M
13
B. Barone
F
18
D. Daguerre
↑ 70'
F
19
F. Sellecchia
F
Cerro 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
12
Y. Irrazabal
G
22
D. Suarez
🟨 90+7'
D
5
A. Macelli
M
3
A. Lima
D
17
G. Rodriguez
31
J. Amaro
M
77
M. Ocampo
↓ 81'
M
27
C. Barros
↓ 81'
M
10
B. Aleman
↓ 81'
M
33
T. Rijo
↓ 34'
28
A. Cambon
↓ 71'
F
Substitutes
25
F. N. Correa Gonzalez
G
16
J. Guasone
D
24
I. Valenzuela
D
6
F. Bregante
↑ 34'
D
41
S. Cristoforo
M
19
E. Sosa
↑ 71' 🟨 84'
M
32
R. Mederos
M
35
P. Nongoy
↑ 81'
M
21
A. Mendez
↑ 81'
M
29
S. Paiva
↑ 81'
F
Last matches: Cerro Largo
08.06.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Boston River
3
0
W
17.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
11.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Penarol
2
3
L
03.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Progreso
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
20.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Boston River
0
1
L
10.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Cerro
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Albion FC
2
2
D
30.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Danubio
2
0
W
24.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Club Nacional
0
3
L
20.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Deportivo Maldonado
3
1
W
15.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Central Espanol
3
1
W
09.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Atletico Torque
0
1
L
01.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
0
2
L
21.02.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
13.02.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Wanderers
1
2
L
08.02.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Juventud
1
0
W
07.11.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
2
0
W
03.11.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
Last matches: Cerro
07.06.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
0
1
L
24.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
0
W
16.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
4
L
10.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
4
L
02.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
26.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
3
L
19.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
10.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
28.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
0
3
L
25.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Juventud
1
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
1
3
L
14.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Progreso
0
1
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
16.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Albion FC
0
3
L
09.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Danubio
0
1
L
09.11.25
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
0
0
D
01.11.25
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
0
D
H2H: Cerro Largo vs Cerro
29.05.26
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
2
0
W
10.04.26
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
1
1
D
07.09.25
H2H
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
1
W
19.06.25
H2H
Cerro
Cerro Largo
2
1
L
17.03.25
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
0
0
D
28.09.24
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
3
1
W
14.07.24
H2H
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
1
W
24.03.24
H2H
Cerro
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
30.11.23
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
0
0
D
02.07.23
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
0
1
L
29.04.23
H2H
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
0
D
24.03.21
H2H
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
1
W
07.10.20
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
2
1
W
10.10.19
H2H
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
2
W
17.08.19
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
2
0
W
Last matches: Cerro Largo
23.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Boston River
3
0
W
11.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Penarol
2
3
L
26.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
10.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Cerro
1
1
D
30.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Danubio
2
0
W
20.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Deportivo Maldonado
3
1
W
09.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Atletico Torque
0
1
L
13.02.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Wanderers
1
2
L
07.11.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
2
0
W
25.10.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
2
2
D
11.10.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Boston River
2
2
D
27.09.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Penarol
1
3
L
13.09.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
01.09.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Wanderers
0
1
L
18.08.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Danubio
1
0
W
27.10.18
Seg
Cerro Largo
Rentistas
2
0
W
06.10.18
Seg
Cerro Largo
Tacuarembo
3
1
W
15.09.18
Seg
Cerro Largo
Juventud
1
0
W
04.09.18
Seg
Cerro Largo
Albion FC
1
1
D
18.08.18
Seg
Cerro Largo
Deportivo Maldonado
1
0
W
H2H at home: Cerro Largo
29.05.26
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
2
0
W
10.04.26
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
1
1
D
17.03.25
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
0
0
D
28.09.24
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
3
1
W
30.11.23
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
0
0
D
02.07.23
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
0
1
L
07.10.20
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
2
1
W
17.08.19
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
2
0
W
Last matches: Cerro
16.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
4
L
10.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
4
L
26.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
3
L
10.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
28.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
0
3
L
21.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
1
3
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
16.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Albion FC
0
3
L
18.10.25
Pri
Cerro
Atletico Torque
2
1
W
05.10.25
Pri
Cerro
Progreso
0
2
L
26.09.25
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
1
0
W
14.09.25
Pri
Cerro
Danubio
1
5
L
31.08.25
Pri
Cerro
Juventud
0
1
L
17.08.25
Pri
Cerro
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
02.08.25
Pri
Cerro
CA River Plate
0
0
D
16.10.22
Seg
Cerro
Rampla Juniors
1
0
W
01.10.22
Seg
Cerro
Miramar
2
0
W
17.09.22
Seg
Cerro
La Luz
1
0
W
03.09.22
Seg
Cerro
Rampla Juniors
2
2
D
25.08.22
Seg
Cerro
Juventud
1
1
D
H2H away: Cerro
29.05.26
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
2
0
L
10.04.26
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
1
1
D
17.03.25
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
0
0
D
28.09.24
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
3
1
L
30.11.23
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
0
0
D
02.07.23
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
0
1
W
07.10.20
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
2
1
L
17.08.19
H2H
Cerro Largo
Cerro
2
0
L

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 12 3 4 35:20 15 39
W W D W W
2 19 10 7 2 25:15 10 37
D D D W L
3 19 11 3 5 28:18 10 36
W L W W W
4 19 9 5 5 29:20 9 32
W L L D W
5 19 10 1 8 31:26 5 31
W L W W W
6 19 9 4 6 27:25 2 31
D W L W W
7 19 8 5 6 29:24 5 29
L W W L W
8 19 7 5 7 22:24 -2 26
D W D D W
9 19 6 7 6 22:20 2 25
D W D L L
10 19 7 3 9 21:20 1 24
D W W L L
11 19 5 8 6 15:16 -1 23
D D L L L
12 19 6 3 10 19:26 -7 21
D L L W L
13 19 4 8 7 20:27 -7 20
D D L L L
14 19 5 4 10 23:30 -7 19
D L L W W
15 19 3 4 12 16:30 -14 13
L W L L L
16
Cerro Away
19 3 4 12 10:31 -21 13
L L W L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)