URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Parque Palermo
Referee: E. Ostojich
Central Espanol
Match Timeline
Cerro
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
9'
Y. Irrazabal
Cerro
🟨
13'
J. Amaro
Cerro
31'
M. Alonso
Central Espanol
32'
I. Rodriguez
Cerro
🟨
39'
D. Suarez
Cerro
🟥
42'
L. Fernandez
Central Espanol
🟨
45+3'
A. Villoldo
Central Espanol
🟨
45+3'
A. Macelli
Cerro
🟨
45+6'
Rodolfo
Central Espanol
45'
R. Tarragona
Central Espanol
🔄
46'
M. Alonso ↔ S. Navarro
Central Espanol
🔄
46'
J. Amaro ↔ S. Cristoforo
Cerro
🟨
51'
J. Guasone
Cerro
🔄
62'
J. Guasone ↔ A. Lima
Cerro
🔄
62'
F. Bregante ↔ C. Barros
Cerro
🔄
62'
R. Mederos ↔ T. Rijo
Cerro
🔄
68'
D. Suarez ↔ R. Carlos
Cerro
🔄
69'
R. Muniz ↔ F. Sosa
Central Espanol
🔄
69'
M. Aguilera ↔ L. Gandulfo
Central Espanol
🟨
70'
A. Macelli
Cerro
🟥
70'
A. Macelli
Cerro
🔄
75'
R. Tarragona ↔ D. Vera
Central Espanol
78'
D. Vera
Central Espanol
🟨
82'
B. Aleman
Cerro
🔄
83'
M. Montiel ↔ L. Pino
Central Espanol

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.8%
-
Probability Distribution
Central Espanol Win 69.8%
Draw 8.9%
Cerro Win 21.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Central Espanol1.38
Cerro0.98
Recent Form (Last 5)
Central Espanol Central Espanol
WWDLW
17 GF / 19 GA
Cerro Cerro
WLDWL
7 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
0.58
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
7
BTTS Yes
5
8
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Central Espanol Central Espanol 12 matches
Cerro Cerro 12 matches
Central Espanol Statistic Cerro
5 Wins 2
3 Draws 4
4 Losses 6
17 Goals For 7
19 Goals Against 16
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 0.58
1.58 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
7 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 7
8 Over 2.5 3
4 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Central Espanol's more proactive style and Cerro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cerro. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Cerro having the stronger overall control. Central Espanol arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 18 points compared to Cerro in 15 on 10, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Central Espanol Analysis

So far, Central Espanol have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 18 points from 12 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, while the 16:13 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on R. Tarragona (4 goals), F. Munoz (2 goals), I. Rodriguez (2 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Cerro Analysis

With 10 points from 12 games and a place of 15, Cerro still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 6:15, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through A. Pandiani (4 goals), Alejo Macelli (3 goals), T. Correa (3 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Central Espanol won 3 times, Cerro won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:10 from Central Espanol's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.38 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.1%)
Predicted formations: Central Espanol - / Cerro 5-3-2
H2H summary: Central Espanol wins 3, draws 1, Cerro wins 4

Lineups

Central Espanol
Formation
Cerro
Rodolfo
Rodolfo
L. Fernandez
L. Fernandez
I. Rodriguez
I. Rodriguez
A. Villoldo
A. Villoldo
J. Dupont
J. Dupont
G. Gandolfo
G. Gandolfo
M. Montiel
M. Montiel
M. Alonso
M. Alonso
R. Muniz
R. Muniz
M. Aguilera
M. Aguilera
R. Tarragona
R. Tarragona
F. N. Correa Gonzalez
F. N. Correa Gonzalez
J. Guasone
J. Guasone
A. Macelli
A. Macelli
G. Rodriguez
G. Rodriguez
D. Suarez
D. Suarez
R. Mederos
R. Mederos
J. Amaro
J. Amaro
F. Bregante
F. Bregante
B. Aleman
B. Aleman
B. Morales
B. Morales
A. Cambon
A. Cambon
Central Espanol 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
39
Rodolfo
🟨 45+6'
17
L. Fernandez
🟥 42'
2
I. Rodriguez
⚽ 32'
14
A. Villoldo
🟨 45+3'
3
J. Dupont
24
G. Gandolfo
4
M. Montiel
↓ 83'
30
M. Alonso
⚽ 31' ↓ 46'
10
R. Muniz
↓ 69'
28
M. Aguilera
↓ 69'
9
R. Tarragona
⚽ 45' ↓ 75'
Substitutes
1
S. Rodriguez
5
S. Navarro
↑ 46'
22
E. Aramburu
16
I. Mendez
21
L. Pino
↑ 83'
18
F. Yocco
23
I. Gonella
27
F. Sosa
↑ 69'
20
D. Vera
⚽ 78' ↑ 75'
11
L. Gandulfo
↑ 69'
Cerro 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
25
F. N. Correa Gonzalez
16
J. Guasone
↓ 62' 🟨 51'
5
A. Macelli
🟨 45+3' 🟨 70' 🟥 70'
17
G. Rodriguez
22
D. Suarez
↓ 68' 🟨 39'
32
R. Mederos
↓ 62'
31
J. Amaro
↓ 46' 🟨 13'
6
F. Bregante
↓ 62'
10
B. Aleman
🟨 82'
9
B. Morales
28
A. Cambon
Substitutes
12
Y. Irrazabal
🟨 9'
3
A. Lima
↑ 62'
4
M. Arguello
44
R. Carlos
↑ 68'
41
S. Cristoforo
↑ 46'
13
B. Quinteros
35
P. Nongoy
27
C. Barros
↑ 62'
14
N. Soria
33
T. Rijo
↑ 62'
Last matches: Central Espanol
06.06.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
01.06.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Penarol
1
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Cerro
0
1
L
17.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Defensor Sporting
2
1
W
09.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Racing Montevideo
2
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Boston River
1
2
L
17.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Albion FC
1
6
L
12.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Danubio
2
2
D
03.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Club Nacional
1
0
W
31.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Deportivo Maldonado
2
1
W
24.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Liverpool Montevideo
3
3
D
21.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
1
3
L
08.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
28.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Wanderers
0
1
L
22.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Juventud
1
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Penarol
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Progreso
3
0
W
Last matches: Cerro
07.06.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
0
1
L
29.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
0
W
16.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
4
L
10.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
4
L
02.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
10.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
28.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
0
3
L
25.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Juventud
1
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
1
3
L
14.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Progreso
0
1
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
16.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Albion FC
0
3
L
09.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Danubio
0
1
L
09.11.25
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
0
0
D
01.11.25
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
0
D
H2H: Central Espanol vs Cerro
24.05.26
H2H
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
0
L
26.04.26
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro
3
1
W
05.08.22
H2H
Cerro
Central Espanol
2
0
L
14.05.22
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro
1
2
L
28.09.21
H2H
Cerro
Central Espanol
0
0
D
16.06.21
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro
3
2
W
18.05.13
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro
0
2
L
25.11.12
H2H
Cerro
Central Espanol
0
2
W
Last matches: Central Espanol
06.06.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Defensor Sporting
2
1
W
09.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Racing Montevideo
2
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Danubio
2
2
D
31.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Deportivo Maldonado
2
1
W
15.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
1
3
L
28.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Wanderers
0
1
L
15.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Penarol
2
1
W
H2H at home: Central Espanol
26.04.26
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro
3
1
W
14.05.22
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro
1
2
L
16.06.21
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro
3
2
W
18.05.13
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro
0
2
L
Last matches: Cerro
29.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
16.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
4
L
10.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
4
L
10.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
28.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
0
3
L
21.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
1
3
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
16.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Albion FC
0
3
L
18.10.25
Pri
Cerro
Atletico Torque
2
1
W
05.10.25
Pri
Cerro
Progreso
0
2
L
26.09.25
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
1
0
W
14.09.25
Pri
Cerro
Danubio
1
5
L
31.08.25
Pri
Cerro
Juventud
0
1
L
17.08.25
Pri
Cerro
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
02.08.25
Pri
Cerro
CA River Plate
0
0
D
H2H away: Cerro
26.04.26
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro
3
1
L
14.05.22
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro
1
2
W
16.06.21
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro
3
2
L
18.05.13
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro
0
2
W