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PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA
18.04.2026 17:00
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior
Referee: A. Nobre
Casa Pia
Match Timeline
Santa Clara
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
58'
Lucas Soares
Santa Clara
🔄
63'
I. Mohamed ↔ L. Ofori
Casa Pia
🔄
63'
Cassiano ↔ C. Mendes
Casa Pia
🔄
67'
Lucas Soares ↔ Diogo Calila
Santa Clara
🔄
67'
J. Tavares ↔ Darlan
Santa Clara
🔄
72'
J. Marques ↔ D. Livramento
Casa Pia
🔄
73'
R. Brito ↔ S. Perez
Casa Pia
🟨
74'
Pedro Rosas
Casa Pia
🔄
74'
Vinicius Lopes ↔ Brenner
Santa Clara
🔄
74'
G. Paciencia ↔ Fernando
Santa Clara
🔄
85'
Gabriel Silva ↔ Welinton Torrao
Santa Clara
🔄
86'
J. Livolant ↔ K. Osundina
Casa Pia
🟨
88'
Claudio Mendes
Casa Pia
🟨
90+6'
Gaizka Larrazabal
Casa Pia
🟨
90'
Henrique Silva
Santa Clara

Casa Pia vs Santa Clara Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 61%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 54.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
61%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
54.4%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Casa Pia Win 45.2%
Draw 0%
Santa Clara Win 54.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Casa Pia1.07
Santa Clara1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Casa Pia Casa Pia
WWDLW
28 GF / 52 GA
Santa Clara Santa Clara
WLDWL
33 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
0.94
1.86
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
14
BTTS Yes
14
14
Over 2.5
13
2.82
Shots on Goal
2.97

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Casa Pia Casa Pia 28 matches
Santa Clara Santa Clara 35 matches
Casa Pia Statistic Santa Clara
5 Wins 9
10 Draws 9
13 Losses 17
28 Goals For 33
52 Goals Against 41
1 Avg Goals Scored 0.94
1.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
14 BTTS Yes 14
24 Over 1.5 20
14 Over 2.5 13
10 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 12
12 Failed To Score 13
2.82 Shots On Goal 2.97
8.68 Total Shots 9.83
3.79 Corners 4.09
42% Ball Possession 41.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Santa Clara. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Casa Pia expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Santa Clara in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Santa Clara having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Casa Pia Analysis

Casa Pia approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 25 points from 28 matches. The overall return of 5 wins, 10 draws, and 13 defeats with a 28:52 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Cassiano (5 goals), Gaizka Larrazabal (3 goals), J. Livolant (3 goals), with creative support from J. Livolant (8 assists), Gaizka Larrazabal (4 assists), A. Conte (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Santa Clara Analysis

From their first 29 matches, Santa Clara have collected 28 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. Their overall return of 7 wins, 7 draws, and 15 losses with goals at 26:37 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Vinícius Lopes (6 goals), Gabriel Silva (4 goals), Serginho (4 goals), with creative support from Serginho (2 assists), Wendell (2 assists), Vinícius Lopes (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Casa Pia won 2 times, Santa Clara won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:7 from Casa Pia's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.71 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Casa Pia 3-4-3 / Santa Clara 4-4-2
H2H summary: Casa Pia wins 2, draws 2, Santa Clara wins 3

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2