BRAZIL SERIE D
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.5%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Capital Brasilia Win 61.5%
Draw 7.8%
Aparecidense Win 30.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Capital Brasilia1.4
Aparecidense1.02
Recent Form (Last 5)
Capital Brasilia Capital Brasilia
WWDLW
17 GF / 7 GA
Aparecidense Aparecidense
WLDWL
14 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.55
Average Goals Scored
1.27
0.64
Average Goals Conceded
1.18
6
BTTS Yes
8
3
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Capital Brasilia Capital Brasilia 11 matches
Aparecidense Aparecidense 11 matches
Capital Brasilia Statistic Aparecidense
7 Wins 3
3 Draws 5
1 Losses 3
17 Goals For 14
7 Goals Against 13
1.55 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
0.64 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18
6 BTTS Yes 8
7 Over 1.5 9
3 Over 2.5 4
1 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 0
1 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Aparecidense having the stronger overall control. Capital Brasilia arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 23 points compared to Aparecidense in 4 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Capital Brasilia come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Aparecidense.

Capital Brasilia Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Capital Brasilia arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 23 points after 10 matches. Their record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats with goals at 16:6 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking weight falls on Gustavo Nescau (2 goals), Matheuzinho (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Aparecidense Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Aparecidense arrive from a league campaign that has them 4 with 13 points after 10 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats with goals at 13:12 reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Carlos Baje (3 goals), Ivan Junior (2 goals), Luan (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Capital Brasilia won 0 times, Aparecidense won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:4 from Capital Brasilia's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.2%)
H2H summary: Capital Brasilia wins 0, draws 1, Aparecidense wins 2
Last matches: Capital Brasilia
20.06.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Aparecidense
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
União Rondonópolis
2
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
CEOV Operário
5
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goiatuba EC
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Ceilândia
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Mixto
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Mixto
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Ceilândia
2
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goiatuba EC
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
CEOV Operário
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
União Rondonópolis
1
0
W
26.07.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Aparecidense
1
2
L
20.07.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Porto Velho
3
0
W
13.07.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Ceilândia
2
2
D
05.07.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Mixto
0
1
L
28.06.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Luverdense
1
2
L
15.06.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goianésia
1
1
D
07.06.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goiânia
1
1
D
01.06.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goiânia
0
0
D
25.05.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goianésia
1
0
W
Last matches: Aparecidense
20.06.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Gama
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Primavera MG
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Luverdense
0
1
L
17.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Inhumas
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Brasiliense
2
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Brasiliense
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Inhumas
3
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Luverdense
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Primavera MG
3
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Gama
0
2
L
23.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiatuba EC
0
2
L
17.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiatuba EC
3
2
W
09.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
CFRJ / Maricá
2
2
D
02.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
W
26.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
2
1
W
19.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Mixto
0
0
D
12.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goianésia
2
1
W
05.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Porto Velho
7
0
W
29.06.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiânia
3
0
W
H2H: Capital Brasilia vs Aparecidense
20.06.26
H2H
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
1
1
D
26.07.25
H2H
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
2
1
L
19.04.25
H2H
Capital Brasilia
Aparecidense
0
1
L
Last matches: Capital Brasilia
07.06.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
União Rondonópolis
2
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Ceilândia
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Mixto
1
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goiatuba EC
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
CEOV Operário
1
0
W
20.07.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Porto Velho
3
0
W
13.07.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Ceilândia
2
2
D
15.06.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goianésia
1
1
D
01.06.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goiânia
0
0
D
18.05.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Luverdense
2
0
W
10.05.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Mixto
1
1
D
19.04.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Aparecidense
0
1
L
H2H at home: Capital Brasilia
19.04.25
H2H
Capital Brasilia
Aparecidense
0
1
L
Last matches: Aparecidense
07.06.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Gama
2
2
D
24.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Luverdense
0
1
L
17.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Inhumas
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Brasiliense
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Primavera MG
3
1
W
17.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiatuba EC
3
2
W
02.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
W
19.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Mixto
0
0
D
29.06.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiânia
3
0
W
07.06.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Luverdense
1
3
L
24.05.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Ceilândia
3
2
W
10.05.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Porto Velho
1
3
L
04.05.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goianésia
3
0
W
19.04.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
1
0
W
H2H away: Aparecidense
19.04.25
H2H
Capital Brasilia
Aparecidense
0
1
W

Standings

Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)