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03.10.2026 13:30
The Oval
Referee: B. Markham-Jones
Caernarfon Town
Match Timeline
Barry Town
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
10'
N. Daley
Barry Town
🔄
43'
E. Dugan ↔ J. Crosbie
Barry Town
🟨
47'
O. Cuddihy
Barry Town
🔄
64'
R. Sears ↔ H. Charsley
Caernarfon Town
🔄
64'
A. Cieslewicz ↔ O. Zanzala
Caernarfon Town
🟨
82'
O. Cuddihy
Barry Town
🟥
82'
O. Cuddihy
Barry Town
🔄
83'
N. Daley ↔ K. Davies
Barry Town
🔄
90+1'
J. Canavan ↔ S. Nyamwanza
Caernarfon Town
🔄
90+4'
D. Barton ↔ J. Bernard
Barry Town

Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 48.4%
Odds 1.52
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.40
1 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
48.4%
1.52 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.57 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.40 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.25 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Caernarfon Town Win 48.4%
Draw 15.8%
Barry Town Win 35.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Caernarfon Town2.2
Barry Town2.09
Recent Form (Last 5)
Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town
WWDLW
37 GF / 24 GA
Barry Town Barry Town
WLDWL
40 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
2.64
Average Goals Scored
2.35
1.71
Average Goals Conceded
1.53
8
BTTS Yes
13
12
Over 2.5
13
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 14 matches
Barry Town Barry Town 17 matches
Caernarfon Town Statistic Barry Town
8 Wins 12
2 Draws 1
4 Losses 4
37 Goals For 40
24 Goals Against 26
2.64 Avg Goals Scored 2.35
1.71 Avg Goals Conceded 1.53
8 BTTS Yes 13
14 Over 1.5 13
12 Over 2.5 13
7 Over 3.5 11
4 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Barry Town having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Barry Town. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Caernarfon Town Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 22 points from 10 games, Caernarfon Town bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 33:11, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Barry Town Analysis

Barry Town arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 22 points after 10 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 25:16 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Caernarfon Town won 7 times, Barry Town won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 30:23 from Caernarfon Town's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.2%)
H2H summary: Caernarfon Town wins 7, draws 2, Barry Town wins 6

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 12 1 0 44:6 38 37
W W W W W
2 13 10 1 2 30:9 21 31
W W W W W
3 13 9 3 1 25:11 14 30
W L W W W
4 13 8 2 3 37:15 22 26
W L D W D
5 13 8 1 4 28:23 5 25
L W L L D
6 12 7 1 4 21:15 6 22
L W W W W
7 13 6 3 4 24:16 8 21
L W W D L
8 13 7 0 6 25:18 7 21
W W L W L
9 13 5 3 5 21:33 -12 18
L L W L W
10 13 5 1 7 22:23 -1 16
L L L L D
11 13 3 3 7 12:22 -10 12
L W D D L
12 13 3 1 9 8:19 -11 10
L L L L W
13 13 2 3 8 10:32 -22 9
W W L L D
14 12 2 2 8 12:24 -12 8
W W L L D
15 13 1 3 9 8:31 -23 6
W L L D L
16 13 0 2 11 14:44 -30 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Championship Group)
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group)
Cymru Premier (Relegation Group)