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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
19.09.2026 14:00
Turf Moor
Referee: Steve Martin, England
Burnley
Match Timeline
Derby
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
31'
Igor Júlio
Burnley
⚽
34'
Z. Amdouni · Assist: Lucas Pires
Burnley
🟨
56'
Anel Ahmedhodžić
Burnley
🔄
61'
R. Hatate ↔ U. Raghouber
Burnley
🔄
61'
M. Edwards ↔ L. Ramazani
Burnley
🔄
66'
A. Mowatt ↔ O. Fraulo
Derby
🔄
66'
R. Hedges ↔ M. Fuseini
Derby
🟨
67'
David Ozoh
Derby
🟨
68'
Josh Laurent
Burnley
🔄
73'
J. Bruun Larsen ↔ A. Hountondji
Burnley
🔄
73'
Z. Amdouni ↔ J. Vardy
Burnley
🔄
78'
D. Ozoh ↔ R. Brewster
Derby
🔄
82'
C. Taylor ↔ C. Blackett-Taylor
Derby
🟨
86'
Ugo Raghouber
Burnley
🟨
87'
Corey Blackett-Taylor
Derby
🔄
89'
Lucas Pires ↔ O. Sonne
Burnley
⚽
90'
M. Fuseini · Assist: R. Brewster
Derby

Burnley vs Derby Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw
Probability 34.4%
Odds 3.77
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.86
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw
34.4%
3.77 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.73 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.86 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.18 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
6.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-2
-
13.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Burnley Win 30.2%
Draw 34.4%
Derby Win 35.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Burnley1.3
Derby1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
Burnley Burnley
WWDLW
14 GF / 29 GA
Derby Derby
WLDWL
14 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.08
2.23
Average Goals Conceded
1.62
12
BTTS Yes
7
9
Over 2.5
8
4
Shots on Goal
3.29

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Burnley Burnley 13 matches
Derby Derby 13 matches
Burnley Statistic Derby
0 Wins 3
5 Draws 2
8 Losses 8
14 Goals For 14
29 Goals Against 21
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
2.23 Avg Goals Conceded 1.62
12 BTTS Yes 7
12 Over 1.5 11
9 Over 2.5 8
7 Over 3.5 3
0 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 4
4 Shots On Goal 3.29
14.43 Total Shots 11.57
5 Corners 6.43
49.6% Ball Possession 49.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Derby.

Burnley Analysis

Burnley approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 23 with 3 points from 6 matches. Their record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 7:13, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Zian Flemming (2 goals), A. Ramsey (1 goals), J. Laurent (1 goals), with creative support from Max Alleyne (1 assists), J. Bruun Larsen (1 assists), L. Ramazani (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Derby Analysis

Derby sit 22 with 4 points after 6 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 5:11, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Carlton Morris (1 goals), S. Szmodics (1 goals), with creative support from Carlton Morris (1 assists), B. Clark (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Burnley won 7 times, Derby won 0 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:4 from Burnley's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.91 goals per game.

1X2: Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (69.8%)
Predicted formations: Burnley 4-2-3-1 / Derby 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Burnley 9, Derby 7
H2H summary: Burnley wins 7, draws 4, Derby wins 0

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 6 2 1 15:7 8 20
W W W L D
2 9 4 4 1 23:12 11 16
D D W W W
3 8 4 3 1 16:12 4 15
D D W W D
4 7 4 2 1 15:10 5 14
W W D L W
5 9 3 5 1 11:8 3 14
D D D D L
6 9 3 5 1 13:11 2 14
W D W L D
7 9 4 2 3 10:9 1 14
L L D W W
8 9 4 2 3 12:13 -1 14
D W L L W
9 8 4 1 3 13:12 1 13
W W D W W
10 9 3 4 2 8:11 -3 13
D L D D L
11 8 3 2 3 15:15 0 11
D D L W L
12 8 3 2 3 7:8 -1 11
L W W D D
13 8 4 2 2 19:10 9 10
L W W D D
14 8 2 4 2 9:12 -3 10
W L D D W
15 8 3 1 4 11:15 -4 10
W W L L L
16 8 2 3 3 12:12 0 9
D W L L D
17 9 3 0 6 17:19 -2 9
L L L W W
18 8 2 3 3 9:11 -2 9
L L W L W
19 7 2 2 3 9:10 -1 8
D D W L L
20 8 2 2 4 7:10 -3 8
L L W L L
21 8 1 4 3 10:12 -2 7
W L D L L
22
Derby Away
8 1 2 5 7:14 -7 5
D L L L W
23 8 1 1 6 8:15 -7 4
D L L W L
24 8 0 4 4 9:17 -8 4
D L D L D
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One