Burnley vs Derby Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw |
34.4%
|
3.77 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
71.2%
|
1.73 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
72%
|
1.86 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
1.18 | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Draw |
-
|
6.00 | |
| Correct Score | 2-2 |
-
|
13.00 |
Burnley
Derby
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Burnley
13 matches
Derby
13 matches
| Burnley | Statistic | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Wins | 3 |
| 5 | Draws | 2 |
| 8 | Losses | 8 |
| 14 | Goals For | 14 |
| 29 | Goals Against | 21 |
| 1.08 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.08 |
| 2.23 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.62 |
| 12 | BTTS Yes | 7 |
| 12 | Over 1.5 | 11 |
| 9 | Over 2.5 | 8 |
| 7 | Over 3.5 | 3 |
| 0 | Clean Sheets | 2 |
| 1 | Failed To Score | 4 |
| 4 | Shots On Goal | 3.29 |
| 14.43 | Total Shots | 11.57 |
| 5 | Corners | 6.43 |
| 49.6% | Ball Possession | 49.6% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Derby.
Burnley approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 23 with 3 points from 6 matches. Their record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 7:13, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Zian Flemming (2 goals), A. Ramsey (1 goals), J. Laurent (1 goals), with creative support from Max Alleyne (1 assists), J. Bruun Larsen (1 assists), L. Ramazani (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Derby sit 22 with 4 points after 6 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 5:11, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Carlton Morris (1 goals), S. Szmodics (1 goals), with creative support from Carlton Morris (1 assists), B. Clark (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Burnley won 7 times, Derby won 0 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:4 from Burnley's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.91 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15:7 | 8 | 20 |
W
W
W
L
D
|
|
| 2 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 23:12 | 11 | 16 |
D
D
W
W
W
|
|
| 3 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16:12 | 4 | 15 |
D
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15:10 | 5 | 14 |
W
W
D
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11:8 | 3 | 14 |
D
D
D
D
L
|
|
| 6 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 13:11 | 2 | 14 |
W
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 7 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10:9 | 1 | 14 |
L
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 8 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12:13 | -1 | 14 |
D
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13:12 | 1 | 13 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8:11 | -3 | 13 |
D
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 11 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15:15 | 0 | 11 |
D
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 12 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7:8 | -1 | 11 |
L
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 13 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19:10 | 9 | 10 |
L
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:12 | -3 | 10 |
W
L
D
D
W
|
|
| 15 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11:15 | -4 | 10 |
W
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 16 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:12 | 0 | 9 |
D
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 17 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 17:19 | -2 | 9 |
L
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 18 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:11 | -2 | 9 |
L
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 19 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:10 | -1 | 8 |
D
D
W
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7:10 | -3 | 8 |
L
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 21 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10:12 | -2 | 7 |
W
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 22 |
Derby
Away
|
8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7:14 | -7 | 5 |
D
L
L
L
W
|
| 23 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8:15 | -7 | 4 |
D
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 24 |
Burnley
Home
|
8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9:17 | -8 | 4 |
D
L
D
L
D
|