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BULGARIA › FIRST LEAGUE
02.05.2026 13:30
Hristo Botev Stadium
Referee: N. Popov
Botev Vratsa
Match Timeline
Spartak Varna
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
9'
M. Ntelo · Assist: M. Petkov
Botev Vratsa
🟨
11'
Damian Yordanov
Spartak Varna
⚽
13'
T. Ouorou
Botev Vratsa
🔄
37'
M. Georgiev ↔ T. Chunchukov
Spartak Varna
🟨
45'
Tailson
Spartak Varna
🟨
51'
José Gallegos
Botev Vratsa
🔄
62'
D. Genov ↔ K. Hadji
Botev Vratsa
🟨
70'
Marin Orlinov
Botev Vratsa
🟨
70'
Tsvetelin Chunchukov
Spartak Varna
⚽
70'
T. Chunchukov
Spartak Varna
🔄
71'
Jota Lopes ↔ D. Ivanov
Spartak Varna
🔄
71'
G. Stojanovski ↔ T. Marinov
Spartak Varna
🔄
71'
Tailson ↔ S. Moukachar
Spartak Varna
🔄
73'
M. Ntelo ↔ Y. Bornosuzov
Botev Vratsa
🔄
73'
M. Petkov ↔ M. Smolenski
Botev Vratsa
🔄
73'
J. Gallegos ↔ V. Naydenov
Botev Vratsa
🔄
78'
D. Lozev ↔ P. Prindzhev
Spartak Varna
🔄
89'
I. Yurukov ↔ L. Boyanov
Botev Vratsa

Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 34.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 54%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
34.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
54%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Botev Vratsa Win 79.8%
Draw 8.2%
Spartak Varna Win 12%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botev Vratsa1.16
Spartak Varna0.85
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa
WWDLW
25 GF / 27 GA
Spartak Varna Spartak Varna
WLDWL
26 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
0.81
Average Goals Scored
0.84
0.87
Average Goals Conceded
1.68
10
BTTS Yes
17
8
Over 2.5
15
2.21
Shots on Goal
2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 31 matches
Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 31 matches
Botev Vratsa Statistic Spartak Varna
9 Wins 5
12 Draws 12
10 Losses 14
25 Goals For 26
27 Goals Against 52
0.81 Avg Goals Scored 0.84
0.87 Avg Goals Conceded 1.68
10 BTTS Yes 17
16 Over 1.5 23
8 Over 2.5 15
4 Over 3.5 9
14 Clean Sheets 8
15 Failed To Score 11
2.21 Shots On Goal 2
6.54 Total Shots 6.72
2.68 Corners 2.55
33.4% Ball Possession 31.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Spartak Varna. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Spartak Varna arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Botev Vratsa Analysis

Botev Vratsa are currently 10 in the standings with 39 points from 31 matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 12 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 25:27 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Petkov (6 goals), Daniel Genov (3 goals), R. Tsonev (3 goals), with creative support from R. Tsonev (3 assists), José Gallegos (3 assists), V. Naydenov (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Spartak Varna Analysis

Spartak Varna approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 27 points from 31 matches. The overall return of 5 wins, 12 draws, and 14 defeats with a 26:52 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Berna (6 goals), G. Stojanovski (4 goals), Xande (4 goals), with creative support from G. Stojanovski (3 assists), Xande (2 assists), Angel Granchov (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Botev Vratsa won 4 times, Spartak Varna won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:7 from Botev Vratsa's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.11 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.8%)
Predicted formations: Botev Vratsa 4-2-3-1 / Spartak Varna 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Botev Vratsa wins 4, draws 3, Spartak Varna wins 2

Standings

A PFG: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 22 4 4 64:22 42 70
D W D W W
2 30 17 9 4 57:20 37 60
L D W W W
3 30 18 5 7 50:31 19 59
W W L W W
4 30 16 8 6 43:23 20 56
D W W W L
5 30 11 13 6 30:33 -3 46
D D W W W
6 30 11 11 8 33:26 7 44
L D L L W
7 30 12 8 10 33:27 6 44
W L W W W
8 30 11 7 12 40:37 3 40
W D W W L
9 30 10 9 11 36:33 3 39
D L W L D
10 30 9 11 10 24:26 -2 38
W L D L W
11 30 9 10 11 40:39 1 37
L W L L W
12 30 5 12 13 25:50 -25 27
D W L L L
13 30 7 5 18 23:43 -20 26
L L D L L
14 30 7 5 18 25:58 -33 26
D W D L L
15 30 4 11 15 19:44 -25 23
D L L W L
16 30 3 8 19 15:45 -30 17
D L L L L
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