Login Register
BRAZIL › SERIE A
16.09.2026 22:30
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos
Referee: E. Batista
Botafogo
Match Timeline
Gremio
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
30'
Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira · Assist: Álvaro Montoro
Botafogo
⚽
36'
Jovane Cabral
Gremio
🔄
45'
Edenilson ↔ Danilo
Botafogo
🔄
45'
Lucas Monzon ↔ Gabriel Justino
Botafogo
⚽
52'
Álvaro Montoro · Assist: Vitinho
Botafogo
🔄
59'
Jovane Cabral ↔ José Enamorado
Gremio
🔄
66'
Filip Krovinović ↔ Martin Braithwaite
Gremio
🔄
73'
Júnior Santos ↔ Marçal
Botafogo
🟨
78'
Erick Noriega
Gremio
🔄
78'
Erick Noriega ↔ Matheus Nascimento
Gremio
🔄
78'
Cristian Pavón ↔ Tetê
Gremio
⚽
79'
Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira · Assist: Álvaro Montoro
Botafogo
🔄
79'
Álvaro Montoro ↔ Allan
Botafogo
🔄
86'
Arthur Cabral ↔ Tiquinho Soares
Botafogo
⚽
88'
Gustavo Martins · Assist: Tetê
Gremio
VAR
90+3'
Carlos Vinícius
Gremio
🟨
90+4'
Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira
Botafogo
VAR
90+7'
Matheus Nascimento
Gremio

Botafogo vs Gremio Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.8%
Odds 1.74
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.70
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.81
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.8%
1.74 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.70 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.81 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.20 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.62 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Botafogo Win 57.8%
Draw 17.6%
Gremio Win 24.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botafogo1.36
Gremio1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botafogo Botafogo
WWDLW
41 GF / 44 GA
Gremio Gremio
WLDWL
34 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.37
Average Goals Scored
1.17
1.47
Average Goals Conceded
1.34
19
BTTS Yes
18
17
Over 2.5
15
5.03
Shots on Goal
3.69

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botafogo Botafogo 30 matches
Gremio Gremio 29 matches
Botafogo Statistic Gremio
9 Wins 9
9 Draws 7
12 Losses 13
41 Goals For 34
44 Goals Against 39
1.37 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
1.47 Avg Goals Conceded 1.34
19 BTTS Yes 18
23 Over 1.5 22
17 Over 2.5 15
9 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 5
8 Failed To Score 9
5.03 Shots On Goal 3.69
14.23 Total Shots 11.38
4.37 Corners 4.23
48.9% Ball Possession 49.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Gremio. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Botafogo expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Gremio in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gremio having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Botafogo Analysis

With 31 points from 25 games and a place of 14, Botafogo still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 7 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 37:40 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Danilo Santos (7 goals), Arthur Cabral (7 goals), Edenílson (4 goals), with creative support from Alex Telles (3 assists), Álvaro Montoro (3 assists), Danilo Santos (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Gremio Analysis

Gremio approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 28 points from 25 matches. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 7 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 27:33 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Carlos Vinícius (9 goals), C. Pavón (2 goals), Gustavo Martins (2 goals), with creative support from C. Pavón (4 assists), Francis Amuzu (3 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo won 2 times, Gremio won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:9 from Botafogo's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.4%)
Predicted formations: Botafogo 4-2-3-1 / Gremio 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Botafogo 5, Gremio 4
H2H summary: Botafogo wins 2, draws 2, Gremio wins 1

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 29 14 6 9 44:40 4 48
W W L W L
5 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
6 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
7 28 12 7 9 37:32 5 43
W D W L W
8 28 11 8 9 43:41 2 41
W W W W W
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 29 10 7 12 34:33 1 37
D L L D L
11 29 10 6 13 33:34 -1 36
L L W L W
12 29 10 6 13 32:42 -10 36
W L D W L
13 29 9 8 12 42:47 -5 35
L L W D D
14 28 9 7 12 36:42 -6 34
W W W L W
15 29 8 9 12 34:43 -9 33
D W D W L
16 29 8 8 13 30:34 -4 32
L L L L L
17 29 7 10 12 32:37 -5 31
W L W L L
18 29 7 9 13 31:39 -8 30
D D L L L
19 29 5 9 15 33:48 -15 24
D L L L L
20 28 3 9 16 29:57 -28 18
L D L W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B