Botafogo vs Gremio Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
57.8%
|
1.74 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
62.8%
|
1.70 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
64.5%
|
1.81 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
1.20 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
2.62 | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
8.50 |
Botafogo
Gremio
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Botafogo
30 matches
Gremio
29 matches
| Botafogo | Statistic | Gremio |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Wins | 9 |
| 9 | Draws | 7 |
| 12 | Losses | 13 |
| 41 | Goals For | 34 |
| 44 | Goals Against | 39 |
| 1.37 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.17 |
| 1.47 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.34 |
| 19 | BTTS Yes | 18 |
| 23 | Over 1.5 | 22 |
| 17 | Over 2.5 | 15 |
| 9 | Over 3.5 | 5 |
| 5 | Clean Sheets | 5 |
| 8 | Failed To Score | 9 |
| 5.03 | Shots On Goal | 3.69 |
| 14.23 | Total Shots | 11.38 |
| 4.37 | Corners | 4.23 |
| 48.9% | Ball Possession | 49.9% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Gremio. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Botafogo expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Gremio in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gremio having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.
With 31 points from 25 games and a place of 14, Botafogo still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 7 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 37:40 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Danilo Santos (7 goals), Arthur Cabral (7 goals), Edenílson (4 goals), with creative support from Alex Telles (3 assists), Álvaro Montoro (3 assists), Danilo Santos (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
Gremio approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 28 points from 25 matches. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 7 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 27:33 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Carlos Vinícius (9 goals), C. Pavón (2 goals), Gustavo Martins (2 goals), with creative support from C. Pavón (4 assists), Francis Amuzu (3 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo won 2 times, Gremio won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:9 from Botafogo's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.6 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 55:23 | 32 | 60 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47:21 | 26 | 57 |
D
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 3 | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 43:32 | 11 | 49 |
W
D
L
D
W
|
|
| 4 | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 44:40 | 4 | 48 |
W
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 5 | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 44:36 | 8 | 48 |
W
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 6 | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43:35 | 8 | 46 |
L
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 7 | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 37:32 | 5 | 43 |
W
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 43:41 | 2 | 41 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 9 | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37:43 | -6 | 38 |
L
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 34:33 | 1 | 37 |
D
L
L
D
L
|
|
| 11 | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 33:34 | -1 | 36 |
L
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 12 | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 32:42 | -10 | 36 |
W
L
D
W
L
|
|
| 13 |
Botafogo
Home
|
29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 42:47 | -5 | 35 |
L
L
W
D
D
|
| 14 | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 36:42 | -6 | 34 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 15 | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 34:43 | -9 | 33 |
D
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 16 | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 30:34 | -4 | 32 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 32:37 | -5 | 31 |
W
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 18 |
Gremio
Away
|
29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 31:39 | -8 | 30 |
D
D
L
L
L
|
| 19 | 29 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 33:48 | -15 | 24 |
D
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 29:57 | -28 | 18 |
L
D
L
W
L
|