BRAZIL SERIE A
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Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 47.4%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
47.4%
-
BTTS No
55%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.4%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Botafogo Win 38%
Draw 14.6%
Atletico Paranaense Win 47.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botafogo1.24
Atletico Paranaense1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botafogo Botafogo
WWDLW
38 GF / 37 GA
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
WLDWL
32 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.28
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
17
BTTS Yes
12
15
Over 2.5
10
4.96
Shots on Goal
4.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botafogo Botafogo 26 matches
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 25 matches
Botafogo Statistic Atletico Paranaense
9 Wins 12
7 Draws 5
10 Losses 8
38 Goals For 32
37 Goals Against 23
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.28
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
17 BTTS Yes 12
20 Over 1.5 17
15 Over 2.5 10
8 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 8
6 Failed To Score 7
4.96 Shots On Goal 4.43
13.31 Total Shots 11.52
4.04 Corners 4.7
49.1% Ball Possession 47.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Botafogo expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Atletico Paranaense in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Paranaense having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Atletico Paranaense. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Atletico Paranaense carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 41 points while Botafogo sit 11 on 30, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Botafogo Analysis

Botafogo are currently 11 in the standings with 30 points from 21 matches. The record of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 35:33 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Danilo Santos (7 goals), Arthur Cabral (7 goals), Edenilson (4 goals), with creative support from Alex Telles (3 assists), Álvaro Montoro (3 assists), Danilo Santos (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Atletico Paranaense Analysis

Atletico Paranaense approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 41 points after 23 outings. With 12 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of 31:20, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Kevin Viveros (14 goals), Steven Mendoza (4 goals), Julimar (3 goals), with creative support from Gastón Benavídez (5 assists), João Cruz (4 assists), Lucas Esquivel (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo won 5 times, Atletico Paranaense won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:20 from Botafogo's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.4%)
Predicted formations: Botafogo 4-2-3-1 / Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Botafogo wins 5, draws 3, Atletico Paranaense wins 7
Last matches: Botafogo
16.08.26
Ser
Botafogo
Vitoria
0
1
L
09.08.26
Ser
Botafogo
Fluminense
1
1
D
26.07.26
Ser
Botafogo
Cruzeiro
1
0
W
23.07.26
Ser
Botafogo
Vitoria
0
0
D
16.07.26
Ser
Botafogo
Santos
2
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Bahia
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Corinthians
3
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Atletico-MG
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Remo
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Internacional
2
2
D
18.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Chapecoense-sc
4
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Coritiba
2
2
D
05.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Mirassol
3
2
W
29.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
1
4
L
21.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
18.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Palmeiras
1
2
L
14.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Flamengo
0
3
L
11.03.26
CON
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
Last matches: Atletico Paranaense
15.08.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
09.08.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Santos
2
0
W
30.07.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
0
0
D
25.07.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Internacional
2
0
W
23.07.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
2
L
09.07.26
Fri
Atletico Paranaense
Boca Juniors
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Mirassol
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Remo
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria
3
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Palmeiras
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico-MG
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia
0
3
L
29.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Coritiba
2
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
H2H: Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense
29.03.26
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
4
1
L
05.10.24
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
0
1
W
19.06.24
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
1
1
D
22.10.23
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
1
1
D
03.06.23
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
1
0
L
01.06.23
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
18.05.23
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
3
2
L
13.11.22
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
3
0
L
24.07.22
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
2
0
W
06.01.21
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
09.09.20
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
1
1
D
17.11.19
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
1
0
L
11.08.19
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
28.10.18
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
2
1
L
14.06.18
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
2
0
W
Last matches: Botafogo
09.08.26
Ser
Botafogo
Fluminense
1
1
D
23.07.26
Ser
Botafogo
Vitoria
0
0
D
16.07.26
Ser
Botafogo
Santos
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Corinthians
3
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Remo
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Internacional
2
2
D
12.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Coritiba
2
2
D
01.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Mirassol
3
2
W
14.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Flamengo
0
3
L
11.03.26
CON
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
26.02.26
CON
Botafogo
Nacional Potosí
2
0
W
30.01.26
Ser
Botafogo
Cruzeiro
4
0
W
H2H at home: Botafogo
19.06.24
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
1
1
D
22.10.23
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
1
1
D
01.06.23
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
24.07.22
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
2
0
W
06.01.21
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
11.08.19
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
14.06.18
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
2
0
W
Last matches: Atletico Paranaense
09.08.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Santos
2
0
W
30.07.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
0
0
D
23.07.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
2
L
09.07.26
Fri
Atletico Paranaense
Boca Juniors
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Remo
2
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Palmeiras
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico-MG
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia
0
3
L
15.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
2
3
L
25.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
28.01.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Internacional
1
0
W
H2H away: Atletico Paranaense
19.06.24
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
1
1
D
22.10.23
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
1
1
D
01.06.23
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
L
24.07.22
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
2
0
L
06.01.21
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
W
11.08.19
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
L
14.06.18
H2H
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
2
0
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 14 6 3 40:19 21 48
L D W L W
2 22 13 6 3 44:19 25 45
W W D D W
3 23 12 5 6 31:20 11 41
D W D W W
4 23 10 8 5 34:28 6 38
W D D D D
5 23 10 6 7 32:32 0 36
W W W L W
6 23 8 10 5 32:28 4 34
D D D D D
7 22 9 5 8 27:23 4 32
D L D D W
8 22 9 5 8 30:27 3 32
W D W D W
9 23 8 8 7 25:22 3 32
L W D D W
10 23 8 7 8 28:30 -2 31
D W L D L
11 22 8 6 8 35:34 1 30
L D W D W
12 23 8 5 10 23:33 -10 29
W L L L D
13 22 7 6 9 27:26 1 27
D L D L L
14 22 6 7 9 32:35 -3 25
W L D L W
15 22 6 7 9 24:30 -6 25
L W D L L
16 23 5 9 9 24:28 -4 24
D D D L L
17 22 6 5 11 25:35 -10 23
L L W D W
18 23 5 8 10 27:37 -10 23
D D L W L
19 22 5 7 10 23:34 -11 22
L D D L L
20 22 1 8 13 23:46 -23 11
D L D L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B