BRAZIL SERIE B
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Estadio Santa Cruz

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 78.2%
Odds 1.86
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds 2.34
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
78.2%
1.86
BTTS Yes
58.8%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
2.34
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.2%
1.10
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Botafogo SP Win 78.2%
Draw 10.9%
Avai Win 10.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botafogo SP1.12
Avai0.97
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botafogo SP Botafogo SP
WWDLW
14 GF / 14 GA
Avai Avai
WLDWL
15 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
0.93
Average Goals Scored
1
0.93
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
7
BTTS Yes
7
5
Over 2.5
7
3.13
Shots on Goal
2.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 15 matches
Avai Avai 15 matches
Botafogo SP Statistic Avai
4 Wins 3
4 Draws 4
7 Losses 8
14 Goals For 15
14 Goals Against 21
0.93 Avg Goals Scored 1
0.93 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
7 BTTS Yes 7
8 Over 1.5 10
5 Over 2.5 7
1 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 5
3.13 Shots On Goal 2.93
10.67 Total Shots 9.87
5.6 Corners 3.07
43.2% Ball Possession 46.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Botafogo SP's more proactive style and Avai's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Avai. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Botafogo SP expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Avai in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Avai having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Avai arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Botafogo SP Analysis

Botafogo SP sit 15 with 16 points after 14 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 14:13, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Everton Morelli (6 goals), Hygor (2 goals), Vilar (1 goals), with creative support from Patrick Brey (3 assists), Rafael Gava (3 assists), Everton Morelli (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Avai Analysis

With 13 points from 15 games and a place of 18, Avai still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 15:21, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Walace dos Santos França (3 goals), Sorriso (2 goals), Jean Lucas (1 goals), with creative support from Jean Lucas (2 assists), Thayllon Roberth (2 assists), DG (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo SP won 1 times, Avai won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:12 from Botafogo SP's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (89.1%)
Predicted formations: Botafogo SP 3-4-2-1 / Avai 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Botafogo SP wins 1, draws 3, Avai wins 4
Last matches: Botafogo SP
30.06.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
CRB
0
1
L
20.06.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Ceara
1
0
W
14.06.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Operario-PR
2
1
W
08.06.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Vila Nova
0
1
L
01.06.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Ponte Preta
0
0
D
25.05.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Athletic Club
1
2
L
16.05.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Goias
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Novorizontino
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Nautico Recife
1
1
D
23.04.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Cuiaba
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Atletico Goianiense
1
1
D
10.04.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Criciuma
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
São Bernardo
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
America Mineiro
2
1
W
21.03.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Fortaleza EC
4
0
W
Last matches: Avai
28.06.26
Ser
Avai
Athletic Club
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
Avai
Cuiaba
1
0
W
16.06.26
Ser
Avai
Londrina
2
3
L
10.06.26
Ser
Avai
Ceara
1
2
L
30.05.26
Ser
Avai
Criciuma
1
2
L
24.05.26
Ser
Avai
Goias
0
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Avai
Vila Nova
0
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Avai
Fortaleza EC
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Avai
Novorizontino
3
3
D
26.04.26
Ser
Avai
Atletico Goianiense
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Avai
Ponte Preta
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Avai
Sport Recife
2
2
D
05.04.26
Ser
Avai
Operario-PR
0
0
D
02.04.26
Ser
Avai
CRB
1
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Avai
Juventude
2
0
W
H2H: Botafogo SP vs Avai
23.11.25
H2H
Botafogo SP
Avai
0
0
D
28.07.25
H2H
Avai
Botafogo SP
5
0
L
19.11.24
H2H
Botafogo SP
Avai
1
3
L
31.07.24
H2H
Avai
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
07.10.23
H2H
Botafogo SP
Avai
0
1
L
11.06.23
H2H
Avai
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
23.11.20
H2H
Botafogo SP
Avai
0
1
L
18.08.20
H2H
Avai
Botafogo SP
0
1
W
Last matches: Botafogo SP
30.06.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
CRB
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Operario-PR
2
1
W
25.05.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Athletic Club
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Nautico Recife
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Atletico Goianiense
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
São Bernardo
1
2
L
21.03.26
Ser
Botafogo SP
Fortaleza EC
4
0
W
H2H at home: Botafogo SP
23.11.25
H2H
Botafogo SP
Avai
0
0
D
19.11.24
H2H
Botafogo SP
Avai
1
3
L
07.10.23
H2H
Botafogo SP
Avai
0
1
L
23.11.20
H2H
Botafogo SP
Avai
0
1
L
Last matches: Avai
28.06.26
Ser
Avai
Athletic Club
0
1
L
16.06.26
Ser
Avai
Londrina
2
3
L
10.06.26
Ser
Avai
Ceara
1
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Avai
Vila Nova
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Avai
Atletico Goianiense
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Avai
Sport Recife
2
2
D
02.04.26
Ser
Avai
CRB
1
0
W
H2H away: Avai
23.11.25
H2H
Botafogo SP
Avai
0
0
D
19.11.24
H2H
Botafogo SP
Avai
1
3
W
07.10.23
H2H
Botafogo SP
Avai
0
1
W
23.11.20
H2H
Botafogo SP
Avai
0
1
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.54
Draw 3.33
Home 1.86
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.26
Draw 2.10
Home 2.51
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.42
Over 1.75 1.54
Over 2.0 1.73
Over 2.25 2.05
Over 2.5 2.34
Over 2.75 2.76
Over 3.5 4.35
Under 1.5 2.82
Under 1.75 2.48
Under 2.0 2.11
Under 2.25 1.79
Under 2.5 1.60
Under 2.75 1.44
Under 3.5 1.21
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.75
Draw 3.20
Home 1.85
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 2.05
Home 2.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.33
Draw 2.30
Home 2.20
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.5 1.40
Over 2.5 2.25
Over 3.5 4.00
Over 4.5 10.00
Over 5.5 21.00
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 7.50
Under 1.5 2.75
Under 2.5 1.62
Under 3.5 1.22
Under 4.5 1.06
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.40
Draw 3.24
Home 1.86
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.36
Draw 1.95
Home 2.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.64
Draw 2.28
Home 2.24
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 0.75 1.05
Over 1.0 1.08
Over 1.25 1.23
Over 1.5 1.38
Over 1.75 1.50
Over 2.0 1.67
Over 2.25 2.00
Over 2.5 2.29
Over 2.75 2.61
Over 3.0 3.38
Over 3.25 3.74
Over 3.5 4.10
Over 3.75 5.24
Over 4.0 7.50
Over 4.25 7.90
Over 4.5 8.30
Over 5.5 23.00
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 7.00
Under 0.75 6.39
Under 1.0 5.70
Under 1.25 3.42
Under 1.5 2.62
Under 1.75 2.33
Under 2.0 2.01
Under 2.25 1.76
Under 2.5 1.59
Under 2.75 1.40
Under 3.0 1.25
Under 3.25 1.19
Under 3.5 1.16
Under 3.75 1.09
Under 4.0 1.03
Under 4.25 1.02
Under 4.5 1.01
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.90
Draw 3.25
Home 1.96
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.40
Draw 2.08
Home 2.65
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.95
Draw 2.45
Home 2.33
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 1.75 1.47
Over 2.0 1.63
Over 2.25 1.90
Over 2.5 2.16
Over 2.75 2.55
Over 3.0 3.25
Over 3.25 3.60
Over 3.5 4.00
Over 4.5 8.50
Under 0.5 8.00
Under 1.5 2.95
Under 1.75 2.60
Under 2.0 2.23
Under 2.25 1.86
Under 2.5 1.64
Under 2.75 1.49
Under 3.0 1.32
Under 3.25 1.27
Under 3.5 1.21
Under 4.5 1.05

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 8 4 3 23:17 6 28
L W L W W
2 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
W W D L W
3 15 7 6 2 24:14 10 27
W W D W D
4 15 7 6 2 17:11 6 27
W W D W W
5 15 7 4 4 20:12 8 25
L L D W D
6 15 7 4 4 16:8 8 25
W W W L W
7 15 7 4 4 19:17 2 25
W W L W W
8 15 6 7 2 18:11 7 25
L D D D W
9 16 5 8 3 12:9 3 23
W D L W W
10 15 5 7 3 16:15 1 22
W L D D W
11 15 6 3 6 14:21 -7 21
W L D L D
12 15 5 6 4 18:16 2 21
W D D W D
13 15 6 2 7 21:19 2 20
L L D L L
14 15 5 4 6 24:24 0 19
W D D L L
15 15 4 5 6 15:18 -3 17
L L D W L
16 15 4 4 7 14:14 0 16
L W W L D
17 15 4 3 8 19:24 -5 15
D W W L L
18
Avai Away
15 3 4 8 15:21 -6 13
L W L L L
19 16 2 2 12 10:31 -21 8
L L L L L
20 16 1 3 12 10:27 -17 6
L L L W L
Promotion
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