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ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
02.05.2026 14:00
Holker Street
Referee: J. Miles
Barrow
Match Timeline
Newport County
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
9'
C. McCann
Barrow
🔄
46'
C. Jarvis ↔ T. Davies
Newport County
🟨
61'
Charlie McCann
Barrow
🔄
66'
K. Hemmings ↔ E. Newby
Barrow
⚽
76'
T. Davies · Assist: J. Crole
Newport County
🔄
77'
J. Gordon ↔ I. Fletcher
Barrow
🔄
77'
B. Jackson ↔ J. Anderson
Barrow
🟨
80'
Joseph Anderson
Barrow
⚽
83'
B. Kamwa · Assist: S. Sprangler
Newport County
🟨
84'
Bobby Kamwa
Newport County
🔄
85'
C. Raglan ↔ J. Malcolm
Barrow
🔄
85'
D. Rose ↔ B. Whitfield
Barrow
🔄
87'
B. Lloyd ↔ M. Spellman
Newport County
🔄
90+5'
B. Kamwa ↔ M. Smith
Newport County

Barrow vs Newport County Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 92.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 23.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 36.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
92.2%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
23.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
36.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Barrow Win 52%
Draw 7.8%
Newport County Win 40.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Barrow1.29
Newport County1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Barrow Barrow
WWDLW
48 GF / 78 GA
Newport County Newport County
WLDWL
47 GF / 80 GA
Key Stats
1.02
Average Goals Scored
1
1.66
Average Goals Conceded
1.7
26
BTTS Yes
25
29
Over 2.5
26
3
Shots on Goal
3.39

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Barrow Barrow 47 matches
Newport County Newport County 47 matches
Barrow Statistic Newport County
10 Wins 11
10 Draws 8
27 Losses 28
48 Goals For 47
78 Goals Against 80
1.02 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.66 Avg Goals Conceded 1.7
26 BTTS Yes 25
34 Over 1.5 36
29 Over 2.5 26
16 Over 3.5 13
8 Clean Sheets 7
17 Failed To Score 18
3 Shots On Goal 3.39
10.04 Total Shots 10.46
4.07 Corners 3.93
44.9% Ball Possession 46.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Newport County. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Barrow expected to line up in 3-1-4-2 and Newport County in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Newport County having the stronger overall control.

Barrow Analysis

Barrow sit 24 with 36 points after 45 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 9 draws, and 27 defeats, and the 44:76 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Josh Gordon (9 goals), I. Fletcher (7 goals), C. McCann (4 goals), with creative support from B. Whitfield (3 assists), Tom Barkhuizen (3 assists), I. Fletcher (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 4 draws, and 13 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Newport County Analysis

Newport County approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 21 with 40 points from 45 matches. The overall return of 11 wins, 7 draws, and 27 defeats with a 46:76 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on N. Opoku (6 goals), M. Spellman (5 goals), B. Kamwa (4 goals), with creative support from Kai Whitmore (4 assists), Sammy Braybrooke (4 assists), B. Kamwa (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 3 draws, and 14 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Barrow won 7 times, Newport County won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:17 from Barrow's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.2%)
Predicted formations: Barrow 3-1-4-2 / Newport County 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Barrow wins 7, draws 2, Newport County wins 6

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 24 15 7 71:46 25 87
W L D L W
2 46 24 14 8 86:45 41 86
D W W W D
3 46 22 16 8 66:33 33 82
D W L D W
4 46 25 6 15 61:51 10 81
L D W D W
5 46 24 8 14 74:52 22 80
W D W D W
6 46 21 16 9 71:56 15 79
D L W W D
7 46 22 12 12 74:50 24 78
D L D W W
8 46 21 13 12 70:53 17 76
W W W W W
9 46 22 9 15 70:59 11 75
L L D L W
10 46 18 14 14 60:44 16 68
W L L L L
11 46 19 10 17 64:58 6 67
D L L L W
12 46 18 12 16 62:49 13 66
W L L W W
13 46 18 11 17 56:56 0 65
L L W L L
14 46 19 5 22 56:65 -9 62
D W W W W
15 46 15 16 15 57:58 -1 61
D D D W L
16 46 14 11 21 47:58 -11 53
L D D L L
17 46 13 14 19 53:72 -19 53
W L L L D
18 46 14 10 22 53:79 -26 52
L L L W W
19 46 13 10 23 42:69 -27 49
L D D W L
20 46 12 7 27 48:77 -29 43
W W L W L
21 46 10 11 25 54:79 -25 41
D L W L D
22 46 8 16 22 44:68 -24 40
D D D L L
23 46 10 9 27 39:68 -29 39
L W W L L
24 46 9 9 28 45:78 -33 36
L L L W L
Promotion
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