CANADA CANADIAN PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
TD Place Stadium
Referee: B. Hoskins
Atlético Ottawa
Match Timeline
York United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
33'
Tomasz Skublak
York United
🟨
38'
Julian Altobelli
York United
🟨
39'
Sergei Kozlovskiy
Atlético Ottawa
54'
B. Tabla · Assist: J. Coulanges
Atlético Ottawa
56'
J. Altobelli · Assist: B. Badibanga
York United
VAR
57'
Julian Altobelli
York United
🔄
64'
R. Lopez ↔ L. Accettola
York United
🔄
71'
J. Altobelli ↔ S. Gonzales
York United
🔄
72'
E. Garcia ↔ R. Khoury
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
72'
O. Bassett ↔ S. Jimoh
York United
VAR
74'
Ralph Khoury
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
75'
L. Cloutier ↔ J. Assi
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
82'
S. Kozlovskiy ↔ J. Dunn
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
82'
W. Timoteo ↔ D. Aguilar
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
82'
G. Antinoro ↔ K. Habibullah
Atlético Ottawa
🟨
84'
Julian Dunn-Johnson
Atlético Ottawa
🟨
85'
Jean-Aniel Assi
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
86'
B. Badibanga ↔ J. Costa
York United
🟨
90+1'
Ralph Khoury
Atlético Ottawa
VAR
90+10'
Ballou Tabla
Atlético Ottawa
VAR
90'
Ralph Khoury
Atlético Ottawa

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.3%
-
BTTS Yes
78.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atlético Ottawa Win 67.3%
Draw 5.6%
York United Win 27.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlético Ottawa1.54
York United1.59
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atlético Ottawa Atlético Ottawa
WWDLW
18 GF / 29 GA
York United York United
WLDWL
14 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1.27
2.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.91
8
BTTS Yes
7
9
Over 2.5
6
1.21
Shots on Goal
1.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atlético Ottawa Atlético Ottawa 14 matches
York United York United 11 matches
Atlético Ottawa Statistic York United
5 Wins 4
2 Draws 3
7 Losses 4
18 Goals For 14
29 Goals Against 21
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
2.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.91
8 BTTS Yes 7
12 Over 1.5 8
9 Over 2.5 6
6 Over 3.5 6
2 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 1
1.21 Shots On Goal 1.5
3.79 Total Shots 2.6
1.29 Corners 0.7
28.6% Ball Possession 9.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward York United. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward York United having the stronger overall control. York United arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Atlético Ottawa Analysis

Atlético Ottawa arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 17 points after 12 matches. The record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 18:22 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

York United Analysis

York United sit 6 with 12 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats with a 13:21 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atlético Ottawa won 4 times, York United won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:27 from Atlético Ottawa's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
Predicted formations: Atlético Ottawa 4-3-2-1 / York United 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Atlético Ottawa wins 4, draws 6, York United wins 5
Stats
Atlético Ottawa Atlético Ottawa
York United York United
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
0
10 Corner Kicks 2
9 Fouls 6
0 Offsides 2
77% Ball Possession 23%
18 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Goal 3
6 Shots off Goal 4
6 Blocked Shots 0
11 Shots insidebox 7
7 Shots outsidebox 0
2 Goalkeeper Saves 5
669 Total passes 193
611 Passes accurate 143
1.35 expected_goals 1.48
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Atlético Ottawa
Formation
York United
C. Kalongo
C. Kalongo
L. Cloutier
L. Cloutier
S. Kozlovskiy
S. Kozlovskiy
W. Timoteo
W. Timoteo
R. Mbomio
R. Mbomio
M. Aparicio
M. Aparicio
J. Castro
J. Castro
J. Coulanges
🎯
J. Coulanges
G. Antinoro
G. Antinoro
B. Tabla
B. Tabla
E. Garcia
E. Garcia
J. Cordova
J. Cordova
C. Guzman
C. Guzman
O. Leon
O. Leon
M. Ferrari
M. Ferrari
R. Lopez
R. Lopez
K. Kibato
K. Kibato
B. Badibanga
🎯
B. Badibanga
O. Bassett
O. Bassett
T. Skublak
T. Skublak
J. Altobelli
J. Altobelli
D. Urtiaga
D. Urtiaga
Atlético Ottawa 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
31
C. Kalongo
G
28
L. Cloutier
↓ 75'
84
S. Kozlovskiy
↓ 82'
27
W. Timoteo
↓ 82'
D
18
R. Mbomio
M
10
M. Aparicio
M
2
J. Castro
M
20
J. Coulanges
🎯 54'
11
G. Antinoro
↓ 82'
F
13
B. Tabla
⚽ 54'
F
7
E. Garcia
↓ 72'
F
Substitutes
1
T. Crampton
3
J. Dunn
↑ 82' 🟨 84'
D
5
D. Aguilar
↑ 82'
M
30
K. Habibullah
↑ 82'
M
14
J. Assi
↑ 75' 🟨 85'
F
19
R. Khoury
↑ 72'
37
T. Arnaud
M
York United 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
23
J. Cordova
D
8
C. Guzman
D
4
O. Leon
D
16
M. Ferrari
D
6
R. Lopez
↓ 64'
M
21
K. Kibato
M
39
B. Badibanga
🎯 56' ↓ 86'
M
10
O. Bassett
↓ 72'
M
77
T. Skublak
🟨 33'
M
18
J. Altobelli
⚽ 56' ↓ 71' 🟨 38'
F
1
D. Urtiaga
Substitutes
12
I. Pavela
G
3
L. Singh
D
13
L. Accettola
↑ 64'
28
J. Costa
↑ 86'
M
9
S. Gonzales
↑ 71'
F
19
S. Jimoh
↑ 72'
F
30
J. Cabral
M
Last matches: Atlético Ottawa
19.08.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Vancouver FC
4
0
W
16.08.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Supra du Quebec
2
1
W
08.08.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
HFX Wanderers FC
2
1
W
01.08.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Vancouver FC
1
3
L
26.07.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Pacific FC
3
2
W
04.07.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Cavalry FC
0
3
L
01.07.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
HFX Wanderers FC
3
1
W
09.06.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Supra du Quebec
5
3
W
06.06.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Vancouver FC
1
2
L
30.05.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Pacific FC
2
2
D
24.05.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
2
1
W
17.05.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
HFX Wanderers FC
1
0
W
01.05.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
York United
1
4
L
26.04.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Vancouver FC
1
1
D
19.04.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Supra du Quebec
1
0
W
12.04.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Cavalry FC
1
3
L
04.04.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
0
2
L
25.02.26
CON
Atlético Ottawa
Nashville SC
0
5
L
18.02.26
CON
Atlético Ottawa
Nashville SC
0
2
L
Last matches: York United
16.08.26
Can
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
4
3
W
08.08.26
Can
York United
Pacific FC
1
1
D
02.08.26
Can
York United
Cavalry FC
0
5
L
26.07.26
Can
York United
Forge
1
3
L
04.07.26
Can
York United
Vancouver FC
0
4
L
10.06.26
Can
York United
Cavalry FC
1
5
L
07.06.26
Can
York United
Forge
1
4
L
29.05.26
Can
York United
Supra du Quebec
1
3
L
23.05.26
Can
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
1
1
D
17.05.26
Can
York United
Pacific FC
1
0
W
01.05.26
Can
York United
Atlético Ottawa
4
1
W
25.04.26
Can
York United
Cavalry FC
1
1
D
19.04.26
Can
York United
Vancouver FC
1
0
W
11.04.26
Can
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
2
2
D
27.02.26
Fri
York United
Las Vegas Lights
1
0
W
H2H: Atlético Ottawa vs York United
17.07.26
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
1
1
D
01.05.26
H2H
York United
Atlético Ottawa
4
1
L
14.09.25
H2H
York United
Atlético Ottawa
2
2
D
03.08.25
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
0
0
D
08.07.25
H2H
York United
Atlético Ottawa
3
4
W
22.06.25
H2H
York United
Atlético Ottawa
0
0
D
11.06.25
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
2
1
W
19.04.25
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
3
2
W
27.10.24
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
2
2
D
06.10.24
H2H
York United
Atlético Ottawa
1
0
L
26.07.24
H2H
York United
Atlético Ottawa
4
1
L
15.06.24
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
1
2
L
13.04.24
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
2
1
W
01.10.23
H2H
York United
Atlético Ottawa
1
0
L
05.08.23
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
3
3
D
Last matches: Atlético Ottawa
19.08.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Vancouver FC
4
0
W
08.08.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
HFX Wanderers FC
2
1
W
26.07.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Pacific FC
3
2
W
04.07.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Cavalry FC
0
3
L
09.06.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Supra du Quebec
5
3
W
24.05.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
2
1
W
17.05.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
HFX Wanderers FC
1
0
W
26.04.26
Can
Atlético Ottawa
Vancouver FC
1
1
D
18.02.26
CON
Atlético Ottawa
Nashville SC
0
2
L
H2H at home: Atlético Ottawa
17.07.26
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
1
1
D
03.08.25
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
0
0
D
11.06.25
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
2
1
W
19.04.25
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
3
2
W
27.10.24
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
2
2
D
15.06.24
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
1
2
L
13.04.24
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
2
1
W
05.08.23
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
3
3
D
Last matches: York United
08.08.26
Can
York United
Pacific FC
1
1
D
02.08.26
Can
York United
Cavalry FC
0
5
L
04.07.26
Can
York United
Vancouver FC
0
4
L
29.05.26
Can
York United
Supra du Quebec
1
3
L
23.05.26
Can
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
1
1
D
17.05.26
Can
York United
Pacific FC
1
0
W
25.04.26
Can
York United
Cavalry FC
1
1
D
H2H away: York United
17.07.26
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
1
1
D
03.08.25
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
0
0
D
11.06.25
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
2
1
L
19.04.25
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
3
2
L
27.10.24
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
2
2
D
15.06.24
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
1
2
W
13.04.24
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
2
1
L
05.08.23
H2H
Atlético Ottawa
York United
3
3
D

Standings

Canadian Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 2 3 27:13 14 38
W L L D W
2 17 11 4 2 33:10 23 37
W D W W L
3 18 9 3 6 31:30 1 30
W W W L W
4 18 8 3 7 26:21 5 27
L D W W W
5 17 5 3 9 25:32 -7 18
L L D W L
6 18 4 5 9 24:30 -6 17
L L D L D
7 15 4 5 6 20:34 -14 17
W D L L D
8 16 0 5 11 18:34 -16 5
D D L L L