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GERMANY › 2. BUNDESLIGA
11.10.2026 11:30
Millerntor-Stadion

FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 66.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
66.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
FC St. Pauli Win 45.4%
Draw 21.6%
Karlsruher SC Win 33.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC St. Pauli1.99
Karlsruher SC1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli
WWDLW
27 GF / 20 GA
Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC
WLDWL
19 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.93
Average Goals Scored
1.36
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
2.07
12
BTTS Yes
9
9
Over 2.5
10
5
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 14 matches
Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 14 matches
FC St. Pauli Statistic Karlsruher SC
5 Wins 3
7 Draws 4
2 Losses 7
27 Goals For 19
20 Goals Against 29
1.93 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 2.07
12 BTTS Yes 9
12 Over 1.5 11
9 Over 2.5 10
7 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 5
5 Shots On Goal 5
14 Total Shots 14.57
6 Corners 5.71
46.7% Ball Possession 40.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Karlsruher SC. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC St. Pauli expected to line up in 4-1-3-2 and Karlsruher SC in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Karlsruher SC having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Karlsruher SC arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

FC St. Pauli Analysis

So far, FC St. Pauli have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 7 points from 6 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 1 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, while the 8:8 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on T. Hara (2 goals), M. Kaars (2 goals), Abdoulie Ceesay (2 goals), with creative support from A. Pyrka (2 assists), T. Hara (1 assists), D. Nemeth (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Karlsruher SC Analysis

With 5 points from 6 games and a place of 14, Karlsruher SC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 6:12 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Moritz Broschinski (2 goals), Rafael Pinto Pedrosa (1 goals), S. Fukuda (1 goals), with creative support from M. Wanitzek (2 assists), L. Egloff (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC St. Pauli won 6 times, Karlsruher SC won 3 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 32:21 from FC St. Pauli's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.4%)
Predicted formations: FC St. Pauli 4-1-3-2 / Karlsruher SC 4-4-2
H2H summary: FC St. Pauli wins 6, draws 6, Karlsruher SC wins 3

Standings

2. Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 6 0 0 17:7 10 18
W W W W W
2 6 5 1 0 16:6 10 16
W W D W W
3 6 4 1 1 14:12 2 13
D W W W L
4 6 3 2 1 15:8 7 11
W L D W W
5 6 3 2 1 6:4 2 11
W L W W D
6 6 3 1 2 11:9 2 10
D W L W W
7 6 2 2 2 14:13 1 8
D W D L L
8 6 1 4 1 8:8 0 7
D W D L D
9 6 2 1 3 5:6 -1 7
L D W L W
10 6 2 1 3 7:9 -2 7
W L D W L
11 6 2 1 3 9:12 -3 7
D L W W L
12 6 1 3 2 9:11 -2 6
D D L W L
13 6 1 2 3 10:12 -2 5
D L D L W
14 6 1 2 3 6:12 -6 5
L L D L D
15 6 1 1 4 12:13 -1 4
L D L L L
16 6 0 4 2 7:10 -3 4
D L D L D
17 6 1 1 4 8:14 -6 4
L D L L W
18 6 1 1 4 5:13 -8 4
L W L L L
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