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ARGENTINA › PRIMERA NACIONAL
19.09.2026 19:00
Estadio Nuevo Monumental
Atletico DE Rafaela
Match Timeline
San Martin Tucuman
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
25'
A. Cisnero · Assist: A. Graneros
San Martin Tucuman
⚽
27'
L. Albertengo · Assist: J. Bonifacio
Atletico DE Rafaela
🟨
31'
G. Carabajal
San Martin Tucuman
⚽
34'
B. Cabrera · Assist: M. Veron
San Martin Tucuman
⚽
40'
J. Bonifacio · Assist: L. Albertengo
Atletico DE Rafaela
🟨
45+1'
J. Juarez
San Martin Tucuman
🔄
62'
R. Ramirez ↔ E. Wuattier
Atletico DE Rafaela
🔄
62'
F. Jourdan ↔ J. Cavallaro
Atletico DE Rafaela
⚽
65'
L. Albertengo · Assist: A. Obando
Atletico DE Rafaela
🟨
67'
M. Veron
San Martin Tucuman
🔄
69'
S. Brinone ↔ D. Diellos
San Martin Tucuman
🔄
77'
J. Bonifacio ↔ M. Morello
Atletico DE Rafaela
🔄
77'
M. Moreno ↔ A. Rodriguez
Atletico DE Rafaela
🔄
78'
J. Juarez ↔ V. Salazar
San Martin Tucuman
🔄
78'
G. Carabajal ↔ G. Monroy
San Martin Tucuman
🟨
79'
M. Morello
Atletico DE Rafaela
🟨
84'
L. Albertengo
Atletico DE Rafaela
🔄
87'
L. Flores ↔ V. Mondino
Atletico DE Rafaela
🔄
90'
A. Graneros ↔ N. Castro
San Martin Tucuman
🔄
90'
N. Gallardo ↔ A. Paz
San Martin Tucuman
⚽
90'
A. Rodriguez · Assist: U. Yegros
Atletico DE Rafaela

Atletico DE Rafaela vs San Martin Tucuman Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 51.3%
Odds 2.64
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 2.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds 3.22
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
51.3%
2.64 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
2.50 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
3.22 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.60 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
12.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Atletico DE Rafaela Win 51.3%
Draw 14.3%
San Martin Tucuman Win 34.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico DE Rafaela0.77
San Martin Tucuman0.96
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico DE Rafaela Atletico DE Rafaela
WWDLW
21 GF / 27 GA
San Martin Tucuman San Martin Tucuman
WLDWL
31 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
0.7
Average Goals Scored
1
0.9
Average Goals Conceded
0.87
9
BTTS Yes
13
8
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico DE Rafaela Atletico DE Rafaela 30 matches
San Martin Tucuman San Martin Tucuman 31 matches
Atletico DE Rafaela Statistic San Martin Tucuman
10 Wins 9
9 Draws 14
11 Losses 8
21 Goals For 31
27 Goals Against 27
0.7 Avg Goals Scored 1
0.9 Avg Goals Conceded 0.87
9 BTTS Yes 13
14 Over 1.5 22
8 Over 2.5 8
2 Over 3.5 2
15 Clean Sheets 12
13 Failed To Score 11
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and San Martin Tucuman's more proactive style and Atletico DE Rafaela's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring San Martin Tucuman. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward San Martin Tucuman having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Atletico DE Rafaela Analysis

Atletico DE Rafaela sit 9 with 39 points after 28 league matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 20:22 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

San Martin Tucuman Analysis

San Martin Tucuman sit 11 with 36 points after 28 league matches. The record of 8 wins, 12 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 27:26 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Atletico DE Rafaela won 2 times, San Martin Tucuman won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:6 from Atletico DE Rafaela's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.7%)
Predicted formations: Atletico DE Rafaela 4-2-3-1 / San Martin Tucuman -
H2H summary: Atletico DE Rafaela wins 2, draws 1, San Martin Tucuman wins 2

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 15 13 4 32:15 17 58
D W D D D
2 32 15 11 6 38:26 12 56
W L W D W
3 32 17 4 11 38:30 8 55
W W D W W
4 32 15 9 8 48:40 8 54
L D D W W
5 32 13 9 10 34:26 8 48
D L W W L
6 32 13 9 10 32:28 4 48
L W L D W
7 32 13 8 11 39:31 8 47
W W D D D
8 32 13 7 12 32:31 1 46
W W L W L
9 32 12 9 11 34:32 2 45
L L W D L
10 32 10 13 9 35:32 3 43
W D L W L
11 32 11 9 12 27:30 -3 42
L L W L L
12 32 10 9 13 30:27 3 39
D W L W L
13 32 10 8 14 28:38 -10 38
W L L D L
14 32 9 10 13 26:35 -9 37
D L W L W
15 32 9 9 14 23:30 -7 36
L W D L W
16 32 6 16 10 27:32 -5 34
L W D D D
17 32 9 6 17 24:33 -9 33
W L W L L
18 32 5 8 19 23:54 -31 23
L L L L L
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation