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BRAZIL › SERIE B
16.08.2026 21:30
Arena Independência
Referee: Wagner do Nascimento Magalhaes, Brazil
America Mineiro
Match Timeline
Athletic Club
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
45'
Kauan Rodrigues · Assist: Max
Athletic Club
⚽
52'
L. Sosa
Athletic Club
🟨
56'
Enzo
Athletic Club
🔄
57'
Felipe Amaral ↔ Gustavo Barreto
America Mineiro
🔄
57'
Yago Souza ↔ Jorge Jimenez
America Mineiro
🟨
58'
Douglas Pele
Athletic Club
🔄
58'
Zeca ↔ Douglas Pele
Athletic Club
⚽
66'
Carlinhos · Assist: Jota
Athletic Club
🔄
68'
Willian Bigode ↔ Gonzalo Mastriani
America Mineiro
🔄
69'
R. Pineiro ↔ G. Italo
America Mineiro
🔄
73'
Enzo Santos ↔ Marcelo Henrique
Athletic Club
🔄
73'
Carlinhos ↔ Gustavinho
Athletic Club
🔄
73'
Jota ↔ Yago Santos
Athletic Club
🟨
78'
Barreto
America Mineiro
🔄
79'
Max ↔ Assis
Athletic Club
🔄
84'
Alex Silva ↔ Fabio
America Mineiro
⚽
86'
Gonzalo Mastriani · Assist: Guilherme Parede
America Mineiro

America Mineiro vs Athletic Club Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 68.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
68.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
63.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
America Mineiro Win 31.9%
Draw 19.8%
Athletic Club Win 48.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
America Mineiro0.77
Athletic Club1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
America Mineiro America Mineiro
WWDLW
15 GF / 33 GA
Athletic Club Athletic Club
WLDWL
21 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
0.71
Average Goals Scored
1
1.57
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
11
BTTS Yes
12
11
Over 2.5
5
4.29
Shots on Goal
3.19

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

America Mineiro America Mineiro 21 matches
Athletic Club Athletic Club 21 matches
America Mineiro Statistic Athletic Club
2 Wins 7
5 Draws 10
14 Losses 4
15 Goals For 21
33 Goals Against 18
0.71 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.57 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
11 BTTS Yes 12
15 Over 1.5 14
11 Over 2.5 5
2 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 6
8 Failed To Score 6
4.29 Shots On Goal 3.19
12.05 Total Shots 11.33
5.33 Corners 4.33
53.9% Ball Possession 43.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Athletic Club's more proactive style and America Mineiro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Athletic Club. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Athletic Club carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 12 with 28 points while America Mineiro sit 19 on 11, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

America Mineiro Analysis

America Mineiro approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 11 points from 21 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 14 defeats with a 15:33 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Gonzalo Mastriani (3 goals), Matías Segovia (2 goals), Paulo Victor (2 goals), with creative support from Matías Segovia (2 assists), Willian Bigode (2 assists), Gonzalo Mastriani (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Athletic Club Analysis

Athletic Club are currently 12 in the standings with 28 points from 20 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 10 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 19:18 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Ronaldo Tavares (5 goals), Ian Luccas (4 goals), Max (2 goals), with creative support from Ian Luccas (2 assists), Lucas Belezi (2 assists), Diogo Batista de Souza (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, America Mineiro won 3 times, Athletic Club won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:7 from America Mineiro's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.2%)
Predicted formations: America Mineiro 4-1-4-1 / Athletic Club 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: America Mineiro wins 3, draws 3, Athletic Club wins 2

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 37:19 18 59
W W W L L
2 32 17 7 8 44:31 13 58
D W W W D
3 32 15 11 6 37:27 10 56
W D D W D
4 31 15 9 7 52:27 25 54
W D L D W
5 31 15 8 8 33:27 6 53
W W L L L
6 32 14 10 8 40:30 10 52
L W W L W
7 32 15 6 11 49:45 4 51
W L W L W
8 32 13 11 8 44:34 10 50
W W L W L
9 32 13 9 10 44:43 1 48
L L D W D
10 32 11 14 7 32:25 7 47
D W L W D
11 32 13 6 13 32:40 -8 45
W L L W W
12 32 12 9 11 44:34 10 45
L W D W W
13 31 11 9 11 39:38 1 42
D W L D L
14 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
15 31 10 9 12 34:39 -5 39
W D W D L
16 32 10 8 14 36:38 -2 38
W L W D L
17 32 9 6 17 32:43 -11 33
W L L L D
18 32 7 7 18 40:47 -7 28
L L L L W
19 32 4 5 23 21:53 -32 17
L L L L L
20 32 3 4 25 17:68 -51 13
L L L W L
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