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ARGENTINA › PRIMERA NACIONAL
11.10.2026 18:30
Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento

Almirante Brown vs San Miguel Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 86.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
86.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Almirante Brown Win 86.9%
Draw 5.6%
San Miguel Win 7.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Almirante Brown0.96
San Miguel0.72
Recent Form (Last 5)
Almirante Brown Almirante Brown
WWDLW
25 GF / 21 GA
San Miguel San Miguel
WLDWL
25 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
0.78
Average Goals Scored
0.76
0.66
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
8
BTTS Yes
15
6
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Almirante Brown Almirante Brown 32 matches
San Miguel San Miguel 33 matches
Almirante Brown Statistic San Miguel
12 Wins 6
10 Draws 13
10 Losses 14
25 Goals For 25
21 Goals Against 41
0.78 Avg Goals Scored 0.76
0.66 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
8 BTTS Yes 15
12 Over 1.5 24
6 Over 2.5 11
3 Over 3.5 2
18 Clean Sheets 9
14 Failed To Score 13
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Almirante Brown's more proactive style and San Miguel's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Almirante Brown arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 46 points compared to San Miguel in 17 on 31, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward San Miguel. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward San Miguel having the stronger overall control.

Almirante Brown Analysis

With 46 points from 32 games and a place of 6, Almirante Brown still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 12 wins, 10 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 25:21 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 9 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

San Miguel Analysis

San Miguel approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 31 points from 32 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 13 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 25:38, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Almirante Brown won 1 times, San Miguel won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:5 from Almirante Brown's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
H2H summary: Almirante Brown wins 1, draws 2, San Miguel wins 3

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 18 7 7 36:27 9 61
L W W D D
2 32 17 7 8 51:32 19 58
W L L W W
3 32 16 8 8 42:29 13 56
W D W W W
4 32 14 11 7 46:28 18 53
W D W L W
5 32 14 10 8 39:25 14 52
W D W L L
6 32 12 10 10 25:21 4 46
L L L D D
7 32 12 9 11 29:27 2 45
L W W W L
8 32 11 12 9 27:28 -1 45
W W L D L
9 32 9 13 10 25:23 2 40
L W L D D
10 32 9 10 13 30:33 -3 37
D L W D W
11 32 8 13 11 25:29 -4 37
D L W W D
12 32 9 10 13 28:36 -8 37
W W L W D
13 32 9 10 13 29:39 -10 37
D D L L L
14 32 7 14 11 29:39 -10 35
W L L D D
15 32 6 15 11 20:29 -9 33
D D L D D
16 32 6 15 11 18:28 -10 33
L D D L W
17 32 6 13 13 25:38 -13 31
L L D D L
18 32 7 8 17 22:35 -13 29
L W W L L
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation