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19.04.2026 01:00
Estadio Alejandro Villanueva
Referee: S. Lozano
Alianza Lima
Match Timeline
Cusco
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
15'
F. Gaibor · Assist: E. Castillo
Alianza Lima
⚽
17'
E. Castillo · Assist: F. Gaibor
Alianza Lima
⚽
33'
F. Gaibor
Alianza Lima
⚽
45'
E. Castillo
Alianza Lima
🔄
46'
L. Colitto ↔ N. Silva
Cusco
🔄
46'
O. Valenzuela ↔ C. Diez
Cusco
🔄
46'
J. Bolivar ↔ C. Gamarra
Cusco
🔄
46'
G. Carabajal ↔ J. Tevez
Cusco
⚽
47'
Paolo Guerrero · Assist: E. Castillo
Alianza Lima
⚽
56'
E. Castillo
Alianza Lima
⚽
59'
A. Cantero
Alianza Lima
🔄
60'
Herrera Joel ↔ J. Zevallos
Cusco
🔄
61'
M. Huaman ↔ G. Chavez
Alianza Lima
🔄
69'
E. Castillo ↔ G. Gentile
Alianza Lima
🔄
69'
Paolo Guerrero ↔ L. Ramos
Alianza Lima
🟨
70'
J. Zevallos
Cusco
🟨
73'
R. Garces
Alianza Lima
⚽
79'
J. Velez · Assist: L. Ramos
Alianza Lima
🔄
84'
F. Gaibor ↔ J. Archimbaud
Alianza Lima
🔄
84'
J. Velez ↔ G. Motta
Alianza Lima

Alianza Lima vs Cusco Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
71.2%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Alianza Lima Win 64.9%
Draw 0%
Cusco Win 35.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alianza Lima1.29
Cusco0.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima
WWDLW
17 GF / 7 GA
Cusco Cusco
WLDWL
14 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
1.17
0.54
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
5
BTTS Yes
8
4
Over 2.5
6
4.17
Shots on Goal
4.45

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 13 matches
Cusco Cusco 12 matches
Alianza Lima Statistic Cusco
8 Wins 4
3 Draws 2
2 Losses 6
17 Goals For 14
7 Goals Against 15
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
0.54 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
5 BTTS Yes 8
7 Over 1.5 9
4 Over 2.5 6
1 Over 3.5 2
6 Clean Sheets 1
3 Failed To Score 3
4.17 Shots On Goal 4.45
13.58 Total Shots 12
4.58 Corners 3.45
53.3% Ball Possession 58.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Alianza Lima arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 23 points compared to Cusco in 7 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Cusco. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alianza Lima expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Cusco in 3-2-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cusco having the stronger overall control.

Alianza Lima Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 23 points from 10 games, Alianza Lima bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 12:5, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by R. Garces (4 goals), E. Castillo (3 goals), Paolo Guerrero (3 goals), with creative support from E. Castillo (2 assists), A. Cantero (2 assists), J. Velez (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Cusco Analysis

So far, Cusco have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 13 points from 9 matches. The record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 12:10 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Facundo Callejo (6 goals), G. Carabajal (2 goals), Iván Colman (1 goals), with creative support from J. Manzaneda (2 assists), M. Ruidias (2 assists), J. Bolivar (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Alianza Lima won 4 times, Cusco won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:11 from Alianza Lima's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Alianza Lima 4-2-3-1 / Cusco 3-2-4-1
H2H summary: Alianza Lima wins 4, draws 3, Cusco wins 4

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 8 3 44:18 26 56
W L D L D
2 28 14 8 6 45:33 12 50
D L W D W
3 28 14 6 8 39:25 14 48
L W L W W
4 28 13 8 7 47:31 16 47
D D W W L
5
Cusco Away
27 14 3 10 40:38 2 45
W L W W L
6 28 13 5 10 48:40 8 44
W D L W L
7 28 12 7 9 36:45 -9 43
D D L L L
8 28 12 5 11 49:40 9 41
W W W W L
9 27 11 7 9 40:35 5 40
W L W W W
10 27 10 8 9 29:26 3 38
D W L W W
11 28 11 5 12 38:44 -6 38
W W W W W
12 28 9 8 11 43:53 -10 35
D W W D W
13 28 9 6 13 26:31 -5 33
D L W L W
14 28 7 10 11 36:39 -3 31
D L L D L
15 28 7 7 14 41:52 -11 28
D L W L W
16 28 6 8 14 29:42 -13 26
D W L L L
17 28 6 7 15 24:43 -19 25
L L L L L
18 28 4 8 16 32:51 -19 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2