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FINLAND › VEIKKAUSLIIGA
12.09.2026 16:00
Raatti Stadion
Referee: Matti Roth, Finland
AC Oulu
Match Timeline
Gnistan
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
42'
Adam Jouhi
Gnistan
🟨
47'
Bogdan Milovanov
Gnistan
⚽
58'
Mikko Pitkanen
Gnistan
🔄
60'
Saku Ylätupa ↔ Roman Eremenko
Gnistan
🔄
61'
Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozo ↔ Lamine Ghezali
AC Oulu
🔄
71'
Joakim Latonen ↔ Otto Hannula
Gnistan
🔄
71'
Lamine Ghezali ↔ Elias Kallio
AC Oulu
🔄
71'
Markus Arsalo ↔ Julius Paananen
AC Oulu
🔄
71'
Tuomas Kaukua ↔ Niklas Jokelainen
AC Oulu
⚽
75'
Julius Paananen
AC Oulu
🟨
77'
Pakwo Abdoul Rachide Gnanou
Gnistan
⚽
82'
Roman Eremenko
Gnistan
🔄
84'
Otto Kemppainen ↔ Sami Sipola
AC Oulu
🔄
86'
Artur Atarah ↔ Sergey Eremenko
Gnistan
🟨
90'
Julius Paananen
AC Oulu

AC Oulu vs Gnistan Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 64.5%
Odds 3.00
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.85
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
64.5%
3.00 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.85 ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
3.08 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
11.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
AC Oulu Win 23.3%
Draw 12.2%
Gnistan Win 64.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
AC Oulu1.25
Gnistan1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
AC Oulu AC Oulu
WWDLW
29 GF / 29 GA
Gnistan Gnistan
WLDWL
42 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.16
Average Goals Scored
1.45
1.16
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
11
BTTS Yes
16
9
Over 2.5
13
1.87
Shots on Goal
2.57

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AC Oulu AC Oulu 25 matches
Gnistan Gnistan 29 matches
AC Oulu Statistic Gnistan
11 Wins 11
5 Draws 8
9 Losses 10
29 Goals For 42
29 Goals Against 40
1.16 Avg Goals Scored 1.45
1.16 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
11 BTTS Yes 16
14 Over 1.5 24
9 Over 2.5 13
5 Over 3.5 8
9 Clean Sheets 6
7 Failed To Score 7
1.87 Shots On Goal 2.57
5.09 Total Shots 7.39
2.04 Corners 2.35
19.2% Ball Possession 28.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Gnistan's more proactive style and AC Oulu's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Gnistan. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AC Oulu expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Gnistan in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gnistan having the stronger overall control.

AC Oulu Analysis

AC Oulu arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 34 points after 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, while the 25:25 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on E. Kallio (1 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Gnistan Analysis

Placed 4 with 36 points from 22 outings, Gnistan continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 10 wins, 6 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 36:29 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Akinyemi (1 goals), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, AC Oulu won 1 times, Gnistan won 4 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:10 from AC Oulu's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.8%)
Predicted formations: AC Oulu 4-2-3-1 / Gnistan 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: AC Oulu wins 1, draws 0, Gnistan wins 4

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 7 3 38:23 15 43
L W D D L
2 22 11 9 2 29:16 13 42
D W W L W
3 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
W D D W W
4 22 10 6 6 36:29 7 36
D D W D D
5 22 10 4 8 25:25 0 34
W L L L D
6 22 9 6 7 29:22 7 33
L L L W L
7 22 9 5 8 26:19 7 32
D L W W W
8 22 8 7 7 28:23 5 31
L L D D D
9 22 7 4 11 34:37 -3 25
W W W L L
10 22 4 7 11 25:33 -8 19
W D D D L
11 22 3 6 13 18:44 -26 15
D D L L L
12 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
L W L W W
Play-offs
Relegation Play-offs