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UKRAINE › PREMIER LEAGUE
23.04.2026 12:30
Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho
Referee: D. Panchyshyn
Zorya Luhansk
Match Timeline
Shakhtar Donetsk
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
2'
P. Obah · Assist: Luca Meirelles
Shakhtar Donetsk
⚽
51'
N. Malysh
Zorya Luhansk
🔄
58'
Newerton ↔ Eguinaldo
Shakhtar Donetsk
🔄
58'
Luca Meirelles ↔ Isaque Silva
Shakhtar Donetsk
🟨
60'
Kyrylo Dryshlyuk
Zorya Luhansk
🔄
64'
R. Vantukh ↔ A. Slesar
Zorya Luhansk
🔄
73'
Kaua Elias ↔ L. Traore
Shakhtar Donetsk
🔄
73'
P. Obah ↔ Alisson
Shakhtar Donetsk
🟨
80'
Navin Malysh
Zorya Luhansk
🟨
81'
Nemanja Anđušić
Zorya Luhansk
🔄
82'
N. Andjusic ↔ S. Bah
Zorya Luhansk
⚽
82'
A. Bondarenko
Shakhtar Donetsk
🔄
85'
D. Popara ↔ I. Gorbach
Zorya Luhansk
🔄
85'
K. Dryshlyuk ↔ F. Zadorozhnyi
Zorya Luhansk
🟨
90+6'
Anderson Jordan
Zorya Luhansk
🟨
90+6'
Bohdan Kushnirenko
Zorya Luhansk
🔄
90+1'
Marlon ↔ M. Matviienko
Shakhtar Donetsk

Zorya Luhansk vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
90.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Zorya Luhansk Win 40.2%
Draw 9.5%
Shakhtar Donetsk Win 50.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Zorya Luhansk1.11
Shakhtar Donetsk1.81
Recent Form (Last 5)
Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk
WWDLW
32 GF / 30 GA
Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk
WLDWL
88 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
2.15
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
0.68
13
BTTS Yes
16
12
Over 2.5
22
2.7
Shots on Goal
4.03

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk 23 matches
Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 41 matches
Zorya Luhansk Statistic Shakhtar Donetsk
8 Wins 26
8 Draws 12
7 Losses 3
32 Goals For 88
30 Goals Against 28
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 2.15
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 0.68
13 BTTS Yes 16
16 Over 1.5 29
12 Over 2.5 22
10 Over 3.5 15
7 Clean Sheets 25
6 Failed To Score 6
2.7 Shots On Goal 4.03
7.7 Total Shots 10.18
3.55 Corners 3.74
33% Ball Possession 41.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Zorya Luhansk expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Shakhtar Donetsk in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Shakhtar Donetsk having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Shakhtar Donetsk look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Shakhtar Donetsk. Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 54 points while Zorya Luhansk sit 9 on 32, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Zorya Luhansk Analysis

From their first 23 matches, Zorya Luhansk have collected 32 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Their overall return of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 31:27 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by P. Budkivsky (10 goals), N. Andjusic (7 goals), Jordan (3 goals), with creative support from A. Slesar (4 assists), Reis Rodriguez Leovigildo Junior (4 assists), N. Andjusic (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Shakhtar Donetsk Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 54 points from 23 games, Shakhtar Donetsk bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 16 wins, 6 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 51:12, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through Eguinaldo (7 goals), Kaua Elias (6 goals), Pedrinho (6 goals), with creative support from Pedrinho (5 assists), P. Henrique (5 assists), A. Bondarenko (4 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Zorya Luhansk won 2 times, Shakhtar Donetsk won 8 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:25 from Zorya Luhansk's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.57 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.5%)
Predicted formations: Zorya Luhansk 4-2-3-1 / Shakhtar Donetsk 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Zorya Luhansk wins 2, draws 4, Shakhtar Donetsk wins 8

Standings

Premier League: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 22 6 2 71:21 50 72
L W W W W
2 30 18 6 6 39:17 22 60
W L W D D
3 30 18 5 7 51:21 30 59
W D L W W
4 30 17 6 7 66:36 30 57
W W W D L
5 30 13 12 5 36:19 17 51
W D D D L
6 30 13 10 7 30:25 5 49
W L L W W
7 30 13 9 8 53:46 7 48
D L W W D
8 30 12 10 8 42:36 6 46
W D W D W
9 30 10 11 9 40:31 9 41
L W D L D
10 30 8 8 14 36:45 -9 32
D D W D D
11 30 7 10 13 26:40 -14 31
L L L D D
12 30 7 10 13 28:49 -21 31
L W L D D
13 30 7 7 16 32:48 -16 28
L W W L D
14 30 6 3 21 20:51 -31 21
L L L D L
15 30 3 8 19 24:58 -34 17
D W L L L
16 30 2 7 21 23:74 -51 13
D L L L D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - Persha Liga