Login Register
ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
10.10.2026 14:00
York Community Stadium

York vs Northampton Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
York Win 73.2%
Draw 4%
Northampton Win 22.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
York1.51
Northampton1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
York York
WWDLW
24 GF / 24 GA
Northampton Northampton
WLDWL
10 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.85
Average Goals Scored
0.83
1.85
Average Goals Conceded
1
10
BTTS Yes
4
10
Over 2.5
3
5.5
Shots on Goal
3.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

York York 13 matches
Northampton Northampton 12 matches
York Statistic Northampton
5 Wins 3
3 Draws 5
5 Losses 4
24 Goals For 10
24 Goals Against 12
1.85 Avg Goals Scored 0.83
1.85 Avg Goals Conceded 1
10 BTTS Yes 4
13 Over 1.5 6
10 Over 2.5 3
6 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 7
5.5 Shots On Goal 3.43
16.88 Total Shots 10
6.25 Corners 5.14
62.9% Ball Possession 47%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by York's more proactive style and Northampton's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Northampton. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. York arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 14 points compared to Northampton in 22 on 6, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with York expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Northampton in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Northampton having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

York Analysis

York sit 6 with 14 points after 8 league matches. The record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 16:10 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Newby (5 goals), O. Pearce (2 goals), J. Malcolm (2 goals), with creative support from H. Boyes (5 assists), O. Pearce (3 assists), J. King (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Northampton Analysis

Northampton approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 22 with 6 points from 7 matches. The overall return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats with a 3:6 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh (1 goals), L. Briggs (1 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, York won 3 times, Northampton won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:9 from York's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: York 3-4-2-1 / Northampton 4-4-2
H2H summary: York wins 3, draws 2, Northampton wins 3

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 5 1 3 13:10 3 16
W W W D W
2 7 4 3 0 17:10 7 15
W W D D D
3 9 3 6 0 11:7 4 15
W D D D D
4 9 4 3 2 16:14 2 15
L W D W D
5 9 5 0 4 14:14 0 15
L W L L W
6
York Home
8 4 2 2 16:10 6 14
W L W D L
7 8 3 5 0 11:5 6 14
D W D D D
8 9 4 2 3 15:12 3 14
W L W W D
9 9 3 4 2 13:10 3 13
L L W W D
10 9 3 4 2 11:9 2 13
D L W W W
11 9 4 1 4 10:11 -1 13
W W W D L
12 9 2 5 2 12:12 0 11
L D D L W
13 9 3 2 4 9:13 -4 11
L D L L W
14 9 3 2 4 9:14 -5 11
W D D W L
15 9 2 4 3 12:12 0 10
D W D D L
16 9 2 4 3 13:14 -1 10
W D D L W
17 9 2 4 3 11:12 -1 10
L D W D L
18 9 2 4 3 9:10 -1 10
L L L D W
19 8 2 4 2 10:12 -2 10
D D D L L
20 9 2 3 4 5:6 -1 9
W L D L D
21 8 2 1 5 9:13 -4 7
L L L L D
22 7 1 3 3 3:6 -3 6
L L W D D
23 7 1 2 4 3:9 -6 5
L W L L D
24 7 1 1 5 6:13 -7 4
L L L D L
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League