Login Register
ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
10.10.2026 14:00
Vicarage Road

Watford vs Burnley Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Watford Win 74.7%
Draw 14.6%
Burnley Win 10.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Watford1.5
Burnley1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Watford Watford
WWDLW
13 GF / 15 GA
Burnley Burnley
WLDWL
15 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.07
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
2.14
7
BTTS Yes
13
6
Over 2.5
9
3.5
Shots on Goal
3.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Watford Watford 12 matches
Burnley Burnley 14 matches
Watford Statistic Burnley
3 Wins 0
3 Draws 6
6 Losses 8
13 Goals For 15
15 Goals Against 30
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.07
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 2.14
7 BTTS Yes 13
9 Over 1.5 13
6 Over 2.5 9
1 Over 3.5 7
1 Clean Sheets 0
4 Failed To Score 1
3.5 Shots On Goal 3.75
11.63 Total Shots 13.38
3.63 Corners 4.88
46% Ball Possession 49.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Burnley. Watford have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Watford Analysis

Watford sit 20 with 8 points after 8 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 7:10 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Amin Nabizada (3 goals), Iker Bravo (1 goals), E. Kayembe (1 goals), with creative support from Iker Bravo (1 assists), E. Kayembe (1 assists), O. Traoré (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Burnley Analysis

Burnley approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 24 with 4 points from 8 matches. The overall return of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats with a 9:17 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Z. Amdouni (2 goals), Zian Flemming (2 goals), L. Ramazani (1 goals), with creative support from L. Ramazani (1 assists), Max Alleyne (1 assists), J. Bruun Larsen (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Watford won 3 times, Burnley won 8 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:19 from Watford's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (89.3%)
Predicted formations: Watford 4-2-3-1 / Burnley 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Watford wins 3, draws 4, Burnley wins 8

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 5 2 1 13:6 7 17
W W L D W
2 8 4 3 1 22:11 11 15
D W W W W
3 8 4 3 1 16:12 4 15
D D W W D
4 7 4 2 1 15:10 5 14
W W D L W
5 8 4 2 2 10:8 2 14
L D W W D
6 8 3 4 1 10:7 3 13
D D D L W
7 8 4 1 3 13:12 1 13
W W D W W
8 8 4 1 3 11:12 -1 13
W L L W W
9 8 3 3 2 7:10 -3 12
L D D L D
10 8 2 5 1 12:11 1 11
D W L D D
11 8 3 2 3 15:15 0 11
D D L W L
12 8 3 2 3 7:8 -1 11
L W W D D
13 8 4 2 2 19:10 9 10
L W W D D
14 8 2 4 2 9:12 -3 10
W L D D W
15 8 3 1 4 11:15 -4 10
W W L L L
16 8 2 3 3 12:12 0 9
D W L L D
17 8 3 0 5 16:17 -1 9
L L W W L
18 8 2 3 3 9:11 -2 9
L L W L W
19 7 2 2 3 9:10 -1 8
D D W L L
20 8 2 2 4 7:10 -3 8
L L W L L
21 8 1 4 3 10:12 -2 7
W L D L L
22 8 1 2 5 7:14 -7 5
D L L L W
23 8 1 1 6 8:15 -7 4
D L L W L
24 8 0 4 4 9:17 -8 4
D L D L D
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One