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BRAZIL › SERIE A
18.04.2026 23:00
Estádio Manoel Barradas
Referee: Alex Gomes Stefano, Brazil
Vitoria
Match Timeline
Corinthians
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
10'
Renato Kayzer ↔ Renê Sousa
Vitoria
🟨
45+5'
Rodrigo Garro
Corinthians
🔄
55'
Breno Bidon ↔ Matheus Pereira
Corinthians
🔄
64'
Pedro Milans ↔ Kaio César
Corinthians
🔄
64'
Raniele ↔ Allan
Corinthians
🔄
76'
Matheuzinho ↔ Diego Tarzia
Vitoria
🔄
76'
Caique Gonçalves ↔ Zé Vitor
Vitoria
🔄
77'
Rodrigo Garro ↔ Zakaria Labyad
Corinthians
🔄
77'
Kayke Ferrari ↔ Jesse Lingard
Corinthians
🟨
88'
Matheus Bidu
Corinthians
🟨
90'
Nathan Mendes
Vitoria
🔄
90'
Gabriel Baralhas ↔ Ronald
Vitoria
🔄
90'
Erick ↔ Aitor Cantalapiedra
Vitoria

Vitoria vs Corinthians Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 57.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 55.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
57.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
55.4%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Vitoria Win 57.9%
Draw 5.1%
Corinthians Win 37.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vitoria1
Corinthians1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vitoria Vitoria
WWDLW
11 GF / 14 GA
Corinthians Corinthians
WLDWL
12 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
0.92
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
0.85
4
BTTS Yes
5
3
Over 2.5
2
4.3
Shots on Goal
3.46

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vitoria Vitoria 10 matches
Corinthians Corinthians 13 matches
Vitoria Statistic Corinthians
4 Wins 4
2 Draws 5
4 Losses 4
11 Goals For 12
14 Goals Against 11
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 0.85
4 BTTS Yes 5
9 Over 1.5 9
3 Over 2.5 2
1 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 6
2 Failed To Score 4
4.3 Shots On Goal 3.46
10.9 Total Shots 10.23
3.9 Corners 4.77
41.6% Ball Possession 54.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Vitoria appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Corinthians. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Corinthians. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vitoria expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Corinthians in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Corinthians having the stronger overall control.

Vitoria Analysis

Vitoria sit 10 with 14 points after 10 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, while the 11:14 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Gabriel Baralhas (2 goals), Matheuzinho (2 goals), Ramon (2 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Baralhas (3 assists), Erick (2 assists), Fabricio (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Claudinho, Dudu, Edu unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Corinthians Analysis

Corinthians approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 11 points from 11 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 8:11, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Andre (1 goals), Breno Bidon (1 goals), Gabriel Paulista (1 goals), with creative support from R. Garro (3 assists), Matheus Bidu (1 assists), Kaio César (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without M. Depay, Kaio Cesar, Gui Negao, Andre, Matheuzinho, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vitoria won 2 times, Corinthians won 7 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:18 from Vitoria's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: Vitoria 4-2-3-1 / Corinthians 4-4-2
Missing players: Vitoria 14, Corinthians 9
H2H summary: Vitoria wins 2, draws 6, Corinthians wins 7

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 30 14 6 10 46:44 2 48
L W W L W
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 7 12 38:35 3 40
W D L L D
10 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
11 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 30 8 9 13 34:44 -10 33
L D W D W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 30 7 11 12 33:38 -5 32
D W L W L
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B