BRAZIL › SERIE B
07.10.2026 23:30
Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga
Referee: Maguielson Lima Barbosa

Vila Nova vs Cuiaba Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.7%
Odds 2.19
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.3%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.53
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.7%
2.19 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.3%
2.10 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.53 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.22 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.60 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Vila Nova Win 71.7%
Draw 3.4%
Cuiaba Win 24.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vila Nova1.18
Cuiaba1.02
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vila Nova Vila Nova
WWDLW
44 GF / 31 GA
Cuiaba Cuiaba
WLDWL
32 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
1.03
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.81
12
BTTS Yes
11
11
Over 2.5
8
4.16
Shots on Goal
4.23

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vila Nova Vila Nova 31 matches
Cuiaba Cuiaba 31 matches
Vila Nova Statistic Cuiaba
17 Wins 11
6 Draws 13
8 Losses 7
44 Goals For 32
31 Goals Against 25
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.81
12 BTTS Yes 11
21 Over 1.5 20
11 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 3
12 Clean Sheets 13
8 Failed To Score 12
4.16 Shots On Goal 4.23
13.26 Total Shots 13.45
4.81 Corners 5.23
51.2% Ball Possession 48.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Cuiaba. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Vila Nova arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 54 points compared to Cuiaba in 10 on 43, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vila Nova expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Cuiaba in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cuiaba having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Vila Nova Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 54 points from 30 games, Vila Nova bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 16 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats, together with goals at 43:31, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through André Luís (6 goals), João Vieira (3 goals), Ryan Lima (3 goals), with creative support from Marquinhos Gabriel (7 assists), Janderson (6 assists), João Vieira (4 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, they have managed 12 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Cuiaba Analysis

Cuiaba are currently 10 in the standings with 43 points from 30 matches. The record of 10 wins, 13 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 30:25 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Kauan (4 goals), João Basso (2 goals), Fábio Gomes (2 goals), with creative support from Pepê (3 assists), Eliel (3 assists), Kauan (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Vila Nova won 4 times, Cuiaba won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:14 from Vila Nova's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.15 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.6%)
Predicted formations: Vila Nova 4-2-3-1 / Cuiaba 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Vila Nova wins 4, draws 4, Cuiaba wins 5

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 17 6 8 44:31 13 57
W W W D W
2 31 16 8 7 35:19 16 56
W W L L W
3 31 15 9 7 52:27 25 54
W D L D W
4 31 15 8 8 33:27 6 53
W W L L L
5 31 14 11 6 36:27 9 53
D D W D W
6 31 14 10 7 39:27 12 52
W W L W W
7 31 14 6 11 46:44 2 48
L W L W L
8 31 13 9 9 43:41 2 48
L D W D W
9 31 12 11 8 42:33 9 47
W L W L W
10 31 11 13 7 32:25 7 46
W L W D W
11 31 12 9 10 43:32 11 45
W D W W L
12 31 12 6 13 30:39 -9 42
L L W W L
13 31 11 9 11 39:38 1 42
D W L D L
14 31 10 12 9 37:35 2 42
L D D W L
15 31 10 9 12 34:39 -5 39
W D W D L
16 31 9 8 14 34:37 -3 35
L W D L L
17 31 8 6 17 30:42 -12 30
L L L D L
18 31 7 7 17 39:45 -6 28
L L L W W
19 31 4 5 22 21:52 -31 17
L L L L W
20 31 3 4 24 17:66 -49 13
L L W L L
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