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BOSNIA › PREMIJER LIGA
21.05.2026 18:30
Stadion Rodjeni
Referee: D. Maric
Velež
Match Timeline
FK Sarajevo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
26'
F. Ribic
Velež
⚽
38'
A. Spahic
Velež
⚽
48'
A. Krdzalic
FK Sarajevo
⚽
50'
A. Ljajic
FK Sarajevo
⚽
53'
V. Djuric
Velež
🔄
61'
A. Mesic ↔ A. Omerovic
Velež
🔄
61'
R. Abdullah ↔ I. Saric
Velež
🔄
62'
F. Kyeremeh ↔ L. Menalo
FK Sarajevo
🔄
62'
S. Ignatkov ↔ G. Cimirot
FK Sarajevo
⚽
67'
L. Menalo
FK Sarajevo
🔄
70'
V. Djuric ↔ D. Halilovic
Velež
🔄
70'
N. Stojanovic ↔ A. Milak
Velež
🟨
72'
A. Ljajic
FK Sarajevo
🔄
78'
A. Ljajic ↔ R. Telalovic
FK Sarajevo
🔄
78'
Joao Carlos ↔ F. Zivkovic
FK Sarajevo
🔄
84'
A. Babic ↔ E. Vehabovic
Velež
🔄
89'
M. Kupresak ↔ K. Vrban
FK Sarajevo
🟨
90+2'
B. Serbecic
Velež

Velež vs FK Sarajevo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 86.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 64.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
86.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
64.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Velež Win 41.7%
Draw 13.2%
FK Sarajevo Win 45.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Velež1.04
FK Sarajevo1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Velež Velež
WWDLW
34 GF / 29 GA
FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo
WLDWL
52 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.44
0.85
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
12
BTTS Yes
14
11
Over 2.5
18
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Velež Velež 34 matches
FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo 36 matches
Velež Statistic FK Sarajevo
14 Wins 18
9 Draws 8
11 Losses 10
34 Goals For 52
29 Goals Against 40
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.44
0.85 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
12 BTTS Yes 14
16 Over 1.5 24
11 Over 2.5 18
5 Over 3.5 9
13 Clean Sheets 16
14 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward FK Sarajevo having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward FK Sarajevo. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Velež Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 51 points from 34 games, Velež bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 14 wins, 9 draws, and 11 defeats plus a goal balance of 34:29, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by I. Saric (6 goals), S. Pidro (4 goals), A. Mesic (3 goals), with creative support from D. Salcin (2 assists), B. Serbecic (2 assists), A. Nukic (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their record of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses points to a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

FK Sarajevo Analysis

FK Sarajevo approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 59 points after 34 outings. They have recorded 17 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses, with a 50:35 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on A. Elezi (8 goals), F. Kyeremeh (6 goals), M. Kupresak (6 goals), with creative support from G. Guliashvili (8 assists), M. Kupresak (5 assists), A. Ljajic (4 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Velež won 4 times, FK Sarajevo won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:22 from Velež's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.57 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.8%)
H2H summary: Velež wins 4, draws 3, FK Sarajevo wins 7

Standings

Premijer Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 36 27 5 4 76:20 56 86
W D W W W
2 36 21 8 7 48:25 23 71
W D D W W
3 36 19 8 9 54:37 17 65
W W D W L
4 36 14 9 13 36:35 1 51
L L W D W
5 36 11 12 13 37:48 -11 45
W D D L L
6 36 10 12 14 34:37 -3 42
L D L W L
7 36 8 11 17 27:45 -18 35
L D D L L
8 36 8 10 18 21:46 -25 34
W W D L W
9 36 8 10 18 25:41 -16 34
L L D D L
10 36 7 9 20 31:55 -24 30
L D L L W
Champions League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation