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BRAZIL › SERIE A
18.04.2026 21:30
Estádio São Januário
Referee: Savio Pereira Sampaio, Brazil
Vasco DA Gama
Match Timeline
Sao Paulo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
10'
Luciano
Sao Paulo
🔄
46'
Paulo Henrique ↔ Puma Rodríguez
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
46'
Tchê Tchê ↔ Adson
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
58'
Cédric Soares
Sao Paulo
🔄
58'
Lucca ↔ Tetê
Sao Paulo
🔄
62'
David ↔ Brenner
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
62'
Johan Rojas ↔ Claudio Spinelli
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
63'
Cédric Soares ↔ Maik
Sao Paulo
🔄
63'
Enzo Díaz ↔ Wendell
Sao Paulo
VAR
69'
Claudio Spinelli
Vasco DA Gama
⚽
72'
Puma Rodríguez
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
74'
Alan Franco
Sao Paulo
🔄
80'
Luciano ↔ Gonzalo Tapia
Sao Paulo
🔄
80'
Danielzinho ↔ Felipe Negrucci
Sao Paulo
🔄
81'
Cauan Barros ↔ Hugo Moura
Vasco DA Gama
⚽
88'
Andrés Gómez · Assist: Brenner
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
90+7'
Léo Jardim
Vasco DA Gama

Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 90.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 68.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
90.6%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
68.6%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Vasco DA Gama Win 40.1%
Draw 9.4%
Sao Paulo Win 50.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vasco DA Gama1.2
Sao Paulo1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
WWDLW
16 GF / 17 GA
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
WLDWL
15 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.36
1.55
Average Goals Conceded
0.82
10
BTTS Yes
5
7
Over 2.5
3
5.27
Shots on Goal
3.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 11 matches
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 11 matches
Vasco DA Gama Statistic Sao Paulo
3 Wins 6
4 Draws 2
4 Losses 3
16 Goals For 15
17 Goals Against 9
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
1.55 Avg Goals Conceded 0.82
10 BTTS Yes 5
10 Over 1.5 8
7 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 1
0 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 3
5.27 Shots On Goal 3.82
17.18 Total Shots 11.27
5.45 Corners 5.91
52.3% Ball Possession 55%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Sao Paulo's more proactive style and Vasco DA Gama's more cautious structure. Sao Paulo seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Sao Paulo arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sao Paulo. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Sao Paulo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 20 points while Vasco DA Gama sit 13 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Vasco DA Gama Analysis

Vasco DA Gama are currently 13 in the standings with 13 points from 11 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, while the 16:17 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Cauan Barros (3 goals), Thiago Mendes (3 goals), David (2 goals), with creative support from Cuiabano (4 assists), J. Rodriguez (3 assists), Paulo Henrique (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with Jair, Mateus Carvalho, A. Saldivia unavailable.

Sao Paulo Analysis

With 20 points from 11 games and a place of 3, Sao Paulo still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 15:9, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Jonathan Calleri (6 goals), Ferreira (3 goals), Luciano (2 goals), with creative support from Marcos Antonio (2 assists), Luciano (1 assists), Danielzinho (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with Lucas Moura, Ryan Francisco, Paulinho, Lucas Ramon, R. Toloi unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vasco DA Gama won 6 times, Sao Paulo won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:21 from Vasco DA Gama's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.6%)
Predicted formations: Vasco DA Gama 4-2-3-1 / Sao Paulo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Vasco DA Gama 4, Sao Paulo 7
H2H summary: Vasco DA Gama wins 6, draws 2, Sao Paulo wins 7

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 29 14 6 9 44:40 4 48
W W L W L
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
10 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
11 29 10 7 12 34:33 1 37
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 30 8 9 13 34:44 -10 33
L D W D W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 30 7 11 12 33:38 -5 32
D W L W L
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B