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BRAZIL › SERIE A
16.08.2026 19:00
Estádio São Januário
Referee: Lucas Casagrande, Brazil
Vasco DA Gama
Match Timeline
Santos
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
14'
Jair ↔ Santiago Sosa
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
39'
Robert Renan
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
62'
Christian Oliva ↔ Gustavinho
Santos
🔄
62'
Álvaro Barreal ↔ Rony
Santos
🔄
63'
Gustavo Caballero ↔ Benjamín Rollheiser
Santos
🔄
65'
Claudio Spinelli ↔ David
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
65'
Facundo Colidio ↔ Marino Hinestroza
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
66'
Lucas Piton ↔ Puma Rodríguez
Vasco DA Gama
⚽
68'
Gabriel Barbosa · Assist: Benjamín Rollheiser
Santos
🔄
69'
Gabriel Barbosa ↔ Thaciano
Santos
🔄
75'
Tchê Tchê ↔ Nuno Moreira
Vasco DA Gama
⚽
77'
Willian Arão
Santos
⚽
81'
Luan Peres
Santos
🟨
84'
Paulo Henrique
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
89'
João Schmidt ↔ João Paulo Ananias
Santos

Vasco DA Gama vs Santos Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Vasco DA Gama Win 57.3%
Draw 8.3%
Santos Win 34.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vasco DA Gama1.3
Santos1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
WWDLW
23 GF / 31 GA
Santos Santos
WLDWL
32 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
1.45
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
1.59
14
BTTS Yes
15
11
Over 2.5
14
5.19
Shots on Goal
3.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 21 matches
Santos Santos 22 matches
Vasco DA Gama Statistic Santos
5 Wins 6
7 Draws 7
9 Losses 9
23 Goals For 32
31 Goals Against 35
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 1.45
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 1.59
14 BTTS Yes 15
15 Over 1.5 20
11 Over 2.5 14
4 Over 3.5 8
2 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 3
5.19 Shots On Goal 3.71
17.43 Total Shots 13.19
5.38 Corners 5.57
54.1% Ball Possession 49.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Santos. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Vasco DA Gama Analysis

Vasco DA Gama approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 21 points from 20 matches. The overall return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 9 defeats with a 23:31 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Andrés Gómez (4 goals), Thiago Mendes (3 goals), Puma Rodríguez (2 goals), with creative support from Puma Rodríguez (3 assists), Cuiabano (2 assists), David (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Santos Analysis

Santos sit 16 with 22 points after 20 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 29:33, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Gabriel Barbosa (7 goals), Neymar (6 goals), Álvaro Barreal (4 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Barbosa (2 assists), Neymar (2 assists), Miguelito (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vasco DA Gama won 5 times, Santos won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:25 from Vasco DA Gama's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.7%)
Predicted formations: Vasco DA Gama 4-2-3-1 / Santos 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Vasco DA Gama wins 5, draws 2, Santos wins 8

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 29 14 6 9 44:40 4 48
W W L W L
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
10 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
11 29 10 7 12 34:33 1 37
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 30 8 9 13 34:44 -10 33
L D W D W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 30 7 11 12 33:38 -5 32
D W L W L
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B