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BRAZIL › SERIE A
24.05.2026 23:30
Estádio São Januário
Referee: Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho, Brazil
Vasco DA Gama
Match Timeline
RB Bragantino
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
32'
Rodriguinho
RB Bragantino
⚽
45+1'
Rodriguinho · Assist: Isidro Pitta
RB Bragantino
🔄
52'
Johan Rojas ↔ Brenner
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
52'
Lucas Piton ↔ Cuiabano
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
57'
Henry Mosquera
RB Bragantino
⚽
60'
Isidro Pitta · Assist: Henry Mosquera
RB Bragantino
🔄
71'
Henry Mosquera ↔ Fernando
RB Bragantino
🔄
71'
Rodriguinho ↔ Gustavo Neves
RB Bragantino
🔄
72'
Isidro Pitta ↔ Eduardo Sasha
RB Bragantino
🔄
75'
João Vitor Silva ↔ Hugo Moura
Vasco DA Gama
⚽
77'
Fernando
RB Bragantino
🟨
85'
Andrés Gómez
Vasco DA Gama
VAR
85'
Eric Ramires
RB Bragantino
⚽
87'
Eduardo Sasha
RB Bragantino
🔄
88'
Andrés Gómez ↔ David
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
88'
Agustin Sant Anna ↔ Breno de Moraes
RB Bragantino
🔄
88'
Eric Ramires ↔ Ignacio Sosa
RB Bragantino
🟨
90+1'
Juninho Capixaba
RB Bragantino

Vasco DA Gama vs RB Bragantino Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Vasco DA Gama Win 62.1%
Draw 0%
RB Bragantino Win 37.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vasco DA Gama1.28
RB Bragantino1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
WWDLW
22 GF / 25 GA
RB Bragantino RB Bragantino
WLDWL
19 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
1.19
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
13
BTTS Yes
7
10
Over 2.5
6
5.31
Shots on Goal
4.94

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 16 matches
RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 16 matches
Vasco DA Gama Statistic RB Bragantino
5 Wins 7
5 Draws 2
6 Losses 7
22 Goals For 19
25 Goals Against 18
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.19
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
13 BTTS Yes 7
13 Over 1.5 12
10 Over 2.5 6
4 Over 3.5 1
1 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 4
5.31 Shots On Goal 4.94
17.5 Total Shots 16.06
5.44 Corners 5.5
53.8% Ball Possession 50.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features RB Bragantino's more proactive style and Vasco DA Gama's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring RB Bragantino. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Vasco DA Gama Analysis

Vasco DA Gama are currently 12 in the standings with 20 points from 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, while the 22:25 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Thiago Mendes (4 goals), Andres Gomez (3 goals), Cauan Barros (3 goals), with creative support from J. Rodriguez (4 assists), Cuiabano (4 assists), Paulo Henrique (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

RB Bragantino Analysis

RB Bragantino sit 6 with 23 points after 16 league matches. The record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 19:18 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through I. Pitta (4 goals), Lucas Barbosa (4 goals), D. Tchamba (2 goals), with creative support from Juninho Capixaba (2 assists), Henry Mosquera (2 assists), I. Pitta (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Vasco DA Gama won 4 times, RB Bragantino won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:21 from Vasco DA Gama's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Vasco DA Gama 4-2-3-1 / RB Bragantino 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Vasco DA Gama 4, RB Bragantino 8
H2H summary: Vasco DA Gama wins 4, draws 5, RB Bragantino wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 30 14 6 10 46:44 2 48
L W W L W
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 7 12 38:35 3 40
W D L L D
10 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
11 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 30 8 9 13 34:44 -10 33
L D W D W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 30 7 11 12 33:38 -5 32
D W L W L
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B