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BRAZIL › SERIE A
25.07.2026 23:30
Estádio São Januário
Referee: Rafael Rodrigo Klein, Brazil
Vasco DA Gama
Match Timeline
Mirassol
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
30'
Igor Formiga · Assist: Reinaldo
Mirassol
🔄
36'
José Aldo ↔ Lucas Oliveira
Mirassol
🔄
46'
Gustavo Silva ↔ Carlos Eduardo
Mirassol
🔄
60'
Tchê Tchê ↔ Nuno Moreira
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
60'
Adson ↔ David
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
66'
Walter
Mirassol
🔄
69'
Japa ↔ Eduardo
Mirassol
🔄
69'
Edson Carioca ↔ Fernandinho
Mirassol
🔄
70'
Ramon Rique ↔ Jair
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
71'
Cuiabano ↔ Lucas Piton
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
74'
Cauan Barros ↔ Johan Rojas
Vasco DA Gama
⚽
80'
Andrés Gómez
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
82'
Denilson ↔ Chico
Mirassol
🟨
83'
Nuno Moreira
Vasco DA Gama

Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.2%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.2%
- ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
76.2%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 3-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Vasco DA Gama Win 57.2%
Draw 15.1%
Mirassol Win 27.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vasco DA Gama1.18
Mirassol1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
WWDLW
22 GF / 30 GA
Mirassol Mirassol
WLDWL
27 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.16
Average Goals Scored
1.13
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
13
BTTS Yes
12
11
Over 2.5
11
5.37
Shots on Goal
4.29

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 19 matches
Mirassol Mirassol 24 matches
Vasco DA Gama Statistic Mirassol
5 Wins 9
5 Draws 4
9 Losses 11
22 Goals For 27
30 Goals Against 29
1.16 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
1.58 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
13 BTTS Yes 12
14 Over 1.5 15
11 Over 2.5 11
4 Over 3.5 5
1 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 8
5.37 Shots On Goal 4.29
17.47 Total Shots 13.04
5.16 Corners 5.29
54.2% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Vasco DA Gama have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Mirassol.

Vasco DA Gama Analysis

Vasco DA Gama sit 17 with 20 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 9 defeats with a 22:30 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Thiago Mendes (3 goals), Andrés Gómez (3 goals), Puma Rodríguez (2 goals), with creative support from Puma Rodríguez (3 assists), Cuiabano (2 assists), David (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mirassol Analysis

Mirassol sit 19 with 16 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 18:24, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Igor Formiga (3 goals), Negueba (2 goals), Eduardo (2 goals), with creative support from Alesson (4 assists), Igor Formiga (1 assists), Willian Machado (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Vasco DA Gama won 0 times, Mirassol won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:8 from Vasco DA Gama's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85%)
Predicted formations: Vasco DA Gama 4-2-3-1 / Mirassol 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Vasco DA Gama 1, Mirassol 1
H2H summary: Vasco DA Gama wins 0, draws 1, Mirassol wins 3

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 20 7 4 61:25 36 67
W W D W W
2 31 19 9 3 54:22 32 66
W W W D W
3 31 15 8 8 49:37 12 53
L W D W D
4 31 15 6 10 50:46 4 51
W L W W L
5 31 14 9 8 49:39 10 51
L L W W L
6 31 14 8 9 42:35 7 50
W W D W D
7 31 13 10 8 44:39 5 49
L W L L W
8 31 12 9 10 48:46 2 45
W L D W W
9 31 12 6 13 36:35 1 42
W W L L W
10 31 11 8 12 39:36 3 41
D W D L L
11 31 10 9 12 44:48 -4 39
W D L L W
12 31 10 9 12 38:49 -11 39
L D L L D
13 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
14 31 9 9 13 36:44 -8 36
W L D W D
15 30 9 8 13 36:43 -7 35
L D W W W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 31 7 11 13 33:40 -7 32
L D W L W
18 31 7 10 14 34:44 -10 31
L D D D L
19 31 5 11 15 34:49 -15 26
D D D L L
20 30 3 9 18 30:62 -32 18
L L L D L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B