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BRAZIL › SERIE A
19.09.2026 23:30
São Januário
Referee: B. Machado
Vasco DA Gama
Match Timeline
Coritiba
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
24'
F. Colidio
Vasco DA Gama
⚽
44'
Bruno Duarte · Assist: A. Gomez
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
46'
Tissi ↔ F. Bustos
Coritiba
🔄
46'
Thiago Santos ↔ N. Fonseca
Coritiba
🔄
46'
Fabinho ↔ Paulo Roberto
Coritiba
⚽
56'
A. Lescano
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
61'
Paulo Roberto
Coritiba
⚽
63'
A. Gomez · Assist: A. Saldivia
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
64'
Andrés Gómez
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
65'
Pedro Rocha ↔ Rodrigo Gelado
Coritiba
🔄
71'
A. Lescano ↔ Ramon Rique
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
71'
A. Gomez ↔ M. Hinestroza
Vasco DA Gama
⚽
74'
Ramon Rique
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
75'
Nicolas Fonseca
Coritiba
🔄
77'
S. Sosa ↔ J. Rojas
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
78'
Thiago Mendes ↔ Jair
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
78'
F. Colidio ↔ David
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
78'
J. Lavega ↔ Vini Paulista
Coritiba

Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 71.9%
Odds 7.26
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.95
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.85
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
71.9%
7.26 ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.95 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.85 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.14 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
12.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
21.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Vasco DA Gama Win 22.5%
Draw 5.6%
Coritiba Win 71.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vasco DA Gama1.24
Coritiba1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
WWDLW
29 GF / 41 GA
Coritiba Coritiba
WLDWL
37 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.12
Average Goals Scored
1.37
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
1.41
17
BTTS Yes
15
15
Over 2.5
14
5.15
Shots on Goal
3.56

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 26 matches
Coritiba Coritiba 27 matches
Vasco DA Gama Statistic Coritiba
7 Wins 10
7 Draws 8
12 Losses 9
29 Goals For 37
41 Goals Against 38
1.12 Avg Goals Scored 1.37
1.58 Avg Goals Conceded 1.41
17 BTTS Yes 15
19 Over 1.5 20
15 Over 2.5 14
6 Over 3.5 8
2 Clean Sheets 6
8 Failed To Score 7
5.15 Shots On Goal 3.56
17.27 Total Shots 11.48
5.46 Corners 3.7
53.3% Ball Possession 40.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vasco DA Gama expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Coritiba in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Coritiba having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Vasco DA Gama have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Coritiba carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 37 points while Vasco DA Gama sit 17 on 25, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Coritiba.

Vasco DA Gama Analysis

Vasco DA Gama approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 25 points from 25 matches. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 7 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 27:40 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Gómez (4 goals), David (3 goals), Thiago Mendes (3 goals), with creative support from J. Rodríguez (3 assists), David (2 assists), Cuiabano (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Coritiba Analysis

Coritiba sit 7 with 37 points after 26 league matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 34:35 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Breno Lopes (8 goals), Pedro Rocha (6 goals), J. Lavega (5 goals), with creative support from Josué (10 assists), Lucas Ronier (2 assists), Tinga (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vasco DA Gama won 5 times, Coritiba won 3 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:15 from Vasco DA Gama's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
Predicted formations: Vasco DA Gama 4-1-4-1 / Coritiba 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Vasco DA Gama 4, Coritiba 8
H2H summary: Vasco DA Gama wins 5, draws 7, Coritiba wins 3

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 28 12 7 9 37:32 5 43
W D W L W
8 28 11 8 9 43:41 2 41
W W W W W
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L W L W W
11 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L L D L L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B