Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
71.9%
|
7.26 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
75.1%
|
1.95 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
77.2%
|
1.85 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
1.14 | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
12.00 | |
| Correct Score | 1-2 |
-
|
21.00 |
Vasco DA Gama
Coritiba
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Vasco DA Gama
26 matches
Coritiba
27 matches
| Vasco DA Gama | Statistic | Coritiba |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Wins | 10 |
| 7 | Draws | 8 |
| 12 | Losses | 9 |
| 29 | Goals For | 37 |
| 41 | Goals Against | 38 |
| 1.12 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.37 |
| 1.58 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.41 |
| 17 | BTTS Yes | 15 |
| 19 | Over 1.5 | 20 |
| 15 | Over 2.5 | 14 |
| 6 | Over 3.5 | 8 |
| 2 | Clean Sheets | 6 |
| 8 | Failed To Score | 7 |
| 5.15 | Shots On Goal | 3.56 |
| 17.27 | Total Shots | 11.48 |
| 5.46 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 53.3% | Ball Possession | 40.6% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vasco DA Gama expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Coritiba in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Coritiba having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Vasco DA Gama have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Coritiba carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 37 points while Vasco DA Gama sit 17 on 25, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Coritiba.
Vasco DA Gama approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 25 points from 25 matches. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 7 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 27:40 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Gómez (4 goals), David (3 goals), Thiago Mendes (3 goals), with creative support from J. Rodríguez (3 assists), David (2 assists), Cuiabano (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
Coritiba sit 7 with 37 points after 26 league matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 34:35 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Breno Lopes (8 goals), Pedro Rocha (6 goals), J. Lavega (5 goals), with creative support from Josué (10 assists), Lucas Ronier (2 assists), Tinga (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vasco DA Gama won 5 times, Coritiba won 3 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:15 from Vasco DA Gama's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 55:23 | 32 | 60 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47:21 | 26 | 57 |
D
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 3 | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 43:32 | 11 | 49 |
W
D
L
D
W
|
|
| 4 | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 44:36 | 8 | 48 |
W
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 5 | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43:35 | 8 | 46 |
L
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 6 | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 42:40 | 2 | 45 |
W
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 7 | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 37:32 | 5 | 43 |
W
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 43:41 | 2 | 41 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 9 |
Coritiba
Away
|
28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37:43 | -6 | 38 |
L
D
L
W
W
|
| 10 | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 33:32 | 1 | 36 |
L
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 11 | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 33:32 | 1 | 36 |
L
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 12 | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 41:45 | -4 | 35 |
L
W
D
D
L
|
|
| 13 | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 28:42 | -14 | 33 |
L
D
W
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 29:32 | -3 | 32 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 15 | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 33:42 | -9 | 32 |
W
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 16 |
Vasco DA Gama
Home
|
27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 34:41 | -7 | 31 |
W
W
L
W
L
|
| 17 | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30:38 | -8 | 29 |
D
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 18 | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 30:36 | -6 | 28 |
L
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 19 | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 32:47 | -15 | 23 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 29:53 | -24 | 18 |
D
L
W
L
W
|