BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio São Januário
Referee: R. Claus
Vasco DA Gama
Match Timeline
Atletico Paranaense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
7'
Thiago Mendes
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
7'
Juan Portilla
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
11'
C. Teran ↔ Leo Derik
Atletico Paranaense
37'
Thiago Mendes · Assist: J. Rodriguez
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
63'
Johan Rojas
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
63'
Luiz Gustavo ↔ Felipinho
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
69'
Robert Renan
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
69'
J. Rojas ↔ Tche Tche
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
72'
Bruninho ↔ Chiqueti
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
73'
Renan Peixoto ↔ Isaac
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
73'
Joao Cruz ↔ B. Zapelli
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
77'
Adson ↔ N. Moreira
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
77'
C. Spinelli ↔ Brenner
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
90'
Andrés Gómez
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
90+1'
Andres Gomez ↔ Ramon Rique
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
90+1'
Lucas Piton ↔ Lucas Freitas
Vasco DA Gama

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vasco DA Gama Win 77.3%
Draw 0%
Atletico Paranaense Win 22.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vasco DA Gama1.29
Atletico Paranaense1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
WWDLW
20 GF / 21 GA
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
WLDWL
20 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
12
BTTS Yes
7
9
Over 2.5
7
5.43
Shots on Goal
4.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 14 matches
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 14 matches
Vasco DA Gama Statistic Atletico Paranaense
4 Wins 7
5 Draws 2
5 Losses 5
20 Goals For 20
21 Goals Against 15
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
12 BTTS Yes 7
12 Over 1.5 10
9 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 3
0 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 4
5.43 Shots On Goal 4.86
17.86 Total Shots 11.71
5.64 Corners 4.64
53.4% Ball Possession 48.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Atletico Paranaense's more proactive style and Vasco DA Gama's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vasco DA Gama expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Atletico Paranaense in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Paranaense having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Atletico Paranaense. Atletico Paranaense carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 23 points while Vasco DA Gama sit 13 on 17, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Vasco DA Gama Analysis

From their first 14 matches, Vasco DA Gama have collected 17 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. The record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 20:21 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Cauan Barros (3 goals), Thiago Mendes (3 goals), Andres Gomez (2 goals), with creative support from Cuiabano (4 assists), J. Rodriguez (3 assists), Paulo Henrique (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico Paranaense Analysis

Placed 5 with 23 points from 14 outings, Atletico Paranaense continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, while the 20:15 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Viveros (8 goals), S. Mendoza (4 goals), Julimar (3 goals), with creative support from G. Benavidez (4 assists), L. Esquivel (3 assists), Joao Cruz (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vasco DA Gama won 4 times, Atletico Paranaense won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:21 from Vasco DA Gama's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Vasco DA Gama 4-2-3-1 / Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Vasco DA Gama 5, Atletico Paranaense 5
H2H summary: Vasco DA Gama wins 4, draws 3, Atletico Paranaense wins 8
Stats
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
2
4 Corner Kicks 3
6 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 0
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Goal 3
6 Shots off Goal 4
4 Blocked Shots 2
12 Shots insidebox 4
4 Shots outsidebox 5
3 Goalkeeper Saves 5
480 Total passes 427
426 Passes accurate 356
2.22 expected_goals 0.66
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Vasco DA Gama
Formation
Atletico Paranaense
Leo Jardim
Leo Jardim
J. Rodriguez
🎯
J. Rodriguez
C. Cuesta
C. Cuesta
Robert Renan
Robert Renan
Lucas Piton
Lucas Piton
Hugo Moura
Hugo Moura
Thiago Mendes
Thiago Mendes
Adson
Adson
J. Rojas
J. Rojas
Andres Gomez
Andres Gomez
C. Spinelli
C. Spinelli
Santos
Santos
C. Teran
C. Teran
F. Aguirre
F. Aguirre
Arthur Dias
Arthur Dias
Gilberto Junior
Gilberto Junior
J. Portilla
J. Portilla
Luiz Gustavo
Luiz Gustavo
S. Mendoza
S. Mendoza
Bruninho
Bruninho
Joao Cruz
Joao Cruz
Renan Peixoto
Renan Peixoto
Vasco DA Gama 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Leo Jardim
G
2
J. Rodriguez
🎯 37'
D
46
C. Cuesta
D
30
Robert Renan
🟨 69'
D
6
Lucas Piton
↓ 90+1'
D
25
Hugo Moura
M
23
Thiago Mendes
⚽ 37' 🟨 7'
M
28
Adson
↓ 77'
M
10
J. Rojas
↓ 69' 🟨 63'
M
11
Andres Gomez
↓ 90+1' 🟨 90'
M
77
C. Spinelli
↓ 77'
F
Substitutes
13
Daniel Fuzato
G
9
Matheus Franca
F
83
Ramon Rique
↑ 90+1'
M
43
Lucas Freitas
↑ 90+1'
D
3
Tche Tche
↑ 69'
M
7
David
F
17
N. Moreira
↑ 77'
M
20
Brenner
↑ 77'
F
18
M. Hinestroza
F
4
A. Saldivia
D
98
JP
M
82
Riquelme Avellar
D
Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
23
Santos
G
22
C. Teran
↓ 11'
D
33
F. Aguirre
D
4
Arthur Dias
D
2
Gilberto Junior
27
J. Portilla
🟨 7'
M
14
Luiz Gustavo
↓ 63'
M
7
S. Mendoza
M
48
Bruninho
↓ 72'
F
8
Joao Cruz
↓ 73'
70
Renan Peixoto
↓ 73'
F
Substitutes
1
Mycael
G
16
Jadson
M
6
Leo Derik
↑ 11'
11
Isaac
↑ 73'
47
Chiqueti
↑ 72'
M
5
Felipinho
↑ 63'
D
3
Leo
D
10
B. Zapelli
↑ 73'
M
53
Dudu Kogitzki
M
21
Leozinho
F
26
Claudinho
D
63
Diogo Riquelme
M
Last matches: Vasco DA Gama
31.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
RB Bragantino
0
3
L
16.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Internacional
1
4
L
03.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Flamengo
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Corinthians
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Remo
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Botafogo
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Coritiba
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Gremio
2
1
W
19.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Fluminense
3
2
W
15.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
3
3
D
12.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
2
1
W
26.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Santos
1
2
L
12.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
0
1
L
05.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
29.01.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
1
2
L
Last matches: Atletico Paranaense
30.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Mirassol
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Remo
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria
3
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Palmeiras
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico-MG
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia
0
3
L
29.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Coritiba
2
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
15.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
2
3
L
25.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
19.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Santos
2
1
W
28.01.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Internacional
1
0
W
H2H: Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense
10.05.26
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
12.09.24
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
L
29.08.24
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
27.08.24
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
05.05.24
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
L
25.11.23
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
0
0
D
23.07.23
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
27.12.20
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
3
0
L
06.09.20
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
22.09.19
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1
1
D
28.04.19
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
4
1
L
14.11.18
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1
1
D
29.08.18
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
L
19.11.17
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
3
1
L
31.07.17
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
0
1
L
Last matches: Vasco DA Gama
31.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
RB Bragantino
0
3
L
18.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Botafogo
1
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Gremio
2
1
W
19.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Fluminense
3
2
W
12.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
2
1
W
12.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
0
1
L
05.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
H2H at home: Vasco DA Gama
10.05.26
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
29.08.24
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
27.08.24
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
23.07.23
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
06.09.20
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
22.09.19
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1
1
D
14.11.18
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1
1
D
31.07.17
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
0
1
L
Last matches: Atletico Paranaense
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Remo
2
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Palmeiras
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico-MG
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia
0
3
L
15.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
2
3
L
25.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
28.01.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Internacional
1
0
W
H2H away: Atletico Paranaense
10.05.26
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
L
29.08.24
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
L
27.08.24
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
L
23.07.23
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
W
06.09.20
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
L
22.09.19
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1
1
D
14.11.18
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1
1
D
31.07.17
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
0
1
W

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 5 1 30:13 17 41
?
2 17 10 4 3 31:16 15 34
?
3 18 9 4 5 28:23 5 31
?
4 18 9 3 6 24:18 6 30
?
5 18 9 2 7 25:19 6 29
?
6 17 7 5 5 25:23 2 26
?
7 18 7 5 6 24:24 0 26
?
8 18 7 4 7 23:20 3 25
?
9 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
?
10 18 6 6 6 18:19 -1 24
?
11 18 6 6 6 24:28 -4 24
?
12 17 6 4 7 31:31 0 22
?
13 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
?
14 18 5 6 7 21:22 -1 21
?
15 18 5 6 7 26:29 -3 21
?
16 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
?
17 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
?
18 18 4 6 8 21:29 -8 18
?
19 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
?
20 17 1 6 10 17:33 -16 9
?
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Vasco DA Gama 5 missing
-
Jair
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Mateus Carvalho
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Cuiabano
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
Cauan Barros
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Paulo Henrique
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
Atletico Paranaense 5 missing
-
L. Esquivel
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
K. Viveros
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
G. Benavidez
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Julimar
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
Jadson
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT