ESTONIA › MEISTRILIIGA
10.10.2026 11:30
Parnu Rannastaadion

Vaprus vs Trans Narva Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 81.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
81.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Vaprus Win 81.7%
Draw 5.6%
Trans Narva Win 12.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vaprus1.85
Trans Narva1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vaprus Vaprus
WWDLW
58 GF / 69 GA
Trans Narva Trans Narva
WLDWL
34 GF / 79 GA
Key Stats
1.66
Average Goals Scored
0.92
1.97
Average Goals Conceded
2.14
22
BTTS Yes
19
24
Over 2.5
24
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vaprus Vaprus 35 matches
Trans Narva Trans Narva 37 matches
Vaprus Statistic Trans Narva
12 Wins 6
5 Draws 8
18 Losses 23
58 Goals For 34
69 Goals Against 79
1.66 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
1.97 Avg Goals Conceded 2.14
22 BTTS Yes 19
30 Over 1.5 32
24 Over 2.5 24
17 Over 3.5 12
7 Clean Sheets 5
8 Failed To Score 15
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Trans Narva. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Trans Narva having the stronger overall control.

Vaprus Analysis

Vaprus sit 7 with 34 points after 29 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 4 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 39:57 goal record continues to suggest mixed form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Trans Narva Analysis

Trans Narva approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 19 points from 29 matches. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 20 defeats, and the 22:65 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 12 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vaprus won 3 times, Trans Narva won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:24 from Vaprus's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
H2H summary: Vaprus wins 3, draws 5, Trans Narva wins 7

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 22 6 1 81:21 60 72
D W W W W
2 29 18 1 10 59:39 20 55
W W D W W
3 29 15 6 8 48:36 12 51
W W L W L
4 29 15 5 9 52:27 25 50
W W L L L
5 29 14 2 13 37:47 -10 44
L L W L W
6 29 11 2 16 40:47 -7 35
D W L L W
7 29 10 4 15 39:57 -18 34
L L L W W
8 29 8 5 16 31:49 -18 29
D L L W D
9 29 9 1 19 47:68 -21 28
L L W L L
10 29 5 4 20 22:65 -43 19
D L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga