ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Parnu Rannastaadion
Referee: M. Pukk
Vaprus
Match Timeline
Tammeka
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
14'
S. Kapper
Vaprus
🟨
21'
J. Poder
Vaprus
🔄
46'
M. Seppik ↔ M. Lipp
Vaprus
🔄
54'
P. Marin ↔ R. Muur
Tammeka
🟨
56'
H. Pedmanson
Tammeka
🔄
63'
S. Kapper ↔ S. Viidas
Vaprus
🔄
63'
J. Poder ↔ M. Limberg
Vaprus
🟨
64'
Kauan Pereira
Tammeka
🟨
87'
P. Veelma
Tammeka
🔄
87'
T. Pajo ↔ K. Kauber
Vaprus
🟨
90+1'
H. Pedmanson
Tammeka
🟥
90+1'
H. Pedmanson
Tammeka

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 91.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.2%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
91.8%
-
Probability Distribution
Vaprus Win 59.2%
Draw 18.3%
Tammeka Win 22.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vaprus2.02
Tammeka2.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vaprus Vaprus
WWDLW
25 GF / 29 GA
Tammeka Tammeka
WLDWL
22 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
2.08
Average Goals Scored
1.83
2.42
Average Goals Conceded
1.92
7
BTTS Yes
7
9
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vaprus Vaprus 12 matches
Tammeka Tammeka 12 matches
Vaprus Statistic Tammeka
3 Wins 5
1 Draws 1
8 Losses 6
25 Goals For 22
29 Goals Against 23
2.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.83
2.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1.92
7 BTTS Yes 7
12 Over 1.5 11
9 Over 2.5 9
6 Over 3.5 6
1 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Tammeka. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Tammeka having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Vaprus Analysis

Vaprus sit 10 with 3 points after 6 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 6:17, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through H. Valja (3 goals), S. Viidas (3 goals), with creative support from M. Lepik (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tammeka Analysis

Tammeka sit 9 with 6 points after 6 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 0 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 9:14 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on T. Koskor (4 goals), P. Marin (3 goals), Pedro Manoel (2 goals), with creative support from C. Ignatius (2 assists), Pedro Manoel (1 assists), G. Uggeri (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vaprus won 8 times, Tammeka won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 30:15 from Vaprus's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.7%)
H2H summary: Vaprus wins 8, draws 5, Tammeka wins 2

Lineups

Vaprus
Formation
Tammeka
O. Nomm
O. Nomm
M. Villota
M. Villota
M. Seppik
M. Seppik
K. Aloe
K. Aloe
M. Villota
M. Villota
J. Sild
J. Sild
H. Valja
H. Valja
S. Kapper
S. Kapper
T. Pajo
T. Pajo
J. Poder
J. Poder
M. Lepik
M. Lepik
K. Lapa
K. Lapa
P. Veelma
P. Veelma
Pedro Manoel
Pedro Manoel
Thomas Lisboa
Thomas Lisboa
O. Kangaslahti
O. Kangaslahti
H. Pedmanson
H. Pedmanson
G. Uggeri
G. Uggeri
T. Lang
T. Lang
P. Marin
P. Marin
Kauan Pereira
Kauan Pereira
T. Koskor
T. Koskor
Vaprus 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
16
O. Nomm
4
M. Villota
43
M. Seppik
↓ 46'
15
K. Aloe
24
M. Villota
90
J. Sild
20
H. Valja
17
S. Kapper
↓ 63' 🟨 14'
8
T. Pajo
↓ 87'
9
J. Poder
↓ 63' 🟨 21'
22
M. Lepik
Substitutes
1
H. Vainu
3
K. Rand
5
S. Aer
7
V. Vallik
10
S. Viidas
↑ 63'
19
A. Korre
28
M. Lipp
↑ 46'
42
M. Limberg
↑ 63'
47
S. Kolvart
81
E. Dolgov
11
K. Kauber
↑ 87'
Tammeka 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
26
K. Lapa
23
P. Veelma
🟨 87'
3
Pedro Manoel
7
Thomas Lisboa
44
O. Kangaslahti
24
H. Pedmanson
🟨 56' 🟨 90+1' 🟥 90+1'
10
G. Uggeri
22
T. Lang
79
P. Marin
↓ 54'
89
Kauan Pereira
🟨 64'
19
T. Koskor
Substitutes
77
C. Kiidjarv
4
M. Vaino
6
M. Karis
8
K. Kiidron
11
R. Muur
↑ 54'
15
D. Epton
25
A. Viinapuu
28
R. Kallas
29
R. Silov
Last matches: Vaprus
26.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
16.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
30.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
W
24.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
6
L
16.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
2
1
W
09.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
W
02.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
3
L
26.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
21.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
12.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
2
L
08.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
04.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
0
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
2
L
14.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
1
7
L
07.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
3
2
W
15.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Tallinna Kalev
6
0
W
04.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Metta / LU
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
9
2
W
Last matches: Tammeka
21.06.26
Mei
Tammeka
Trans Narva
1
0
W
17.06.26
Mei
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
13.06.26
Mei
Tammeka
Vaprus
0
0
D
30.05.26
Mei
Tammeka
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
1
L
15.05.26
Mei
Tammeka
Nõmme United
3
1
W
08.05.26
Mei
Tammeka
Kuressaare
1
0
W
01.05.26
Mei
Tammeka
Paide
1
0
W
25.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
Laagri
0
1
L
22.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
12.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
Paide
1
4
L
07.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
Trans Narva
0
3
L
03.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
Flora Tallinn
3
1
W
21.03.26
Mei
Tammeka
Nõmme United
3
2
W
14.03.26
Mei
Tammeka
Kuressaare
2
3
L
08.03.26
Mei
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
27.02.26
Fri
Tammeka
Riga Mariners
1
1
D
15.02.26
Fri
Tammeka
Viimsi
2
0
W
08.02.26
Fri
Tammeka
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
4
L
31.01.26
Fri
Tammeka
Nõmme United
6
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
Tammeka
Tallinna Kalev
0
3
L
H2H: Vaprus vs Tammeka
13.06.26
H2H
Tammeka
Vaprus
0
0
D
18.04.26
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
16.09.25
H2H
Tammeka
Vaprus
1
4
W
15.08.25
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
8
1
W
17.05.25
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
2
1
W
29.03.25
H2H
Tammeka
Vaprus
0
5
W
16.02.25
H2H
Tammeka
Vaprus
6
1
L
18.09.24
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
2
2
D
02.08.24
H2H
Tammeka
Vaprus
0
1
W
23.05.24
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
1
1
D
09.03.24
H2H
Tammeka
Vaprus
1
0
L
05.11.23
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
2
0
W
26.08.23
H2H
Tammeka
Vaprus
0
0
D
27.06.23
H2H
Tammeka
Vaprus
2
3
W
08.04.23
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
1
0
W
Last matches: Vaprus
26.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
16.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
30.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
W
24.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
6
L
09.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
W
02.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
3
L
04.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
0
2
L
07.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
3
2
W
15.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
L
04.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Metta / LU
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
9
2
W
17.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
2
2
D
H2H at home: Vaprus
18.04.26
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
15.08.25
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
8
1
W
17.05.25
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
2
1
W
18.09.24
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
2
2
D
23.05.24
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
1
1
D
05.11.23
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
2
0
W
08.04.23
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
1
0
W
Last matches: Tammeka
17.06.26
Mei
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
01.05.26
Mei
Tammeka
Paide
1
0
W
25.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
Laagri
0
1
L
07.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
Trans Narva
0
3
L
21.03.26
Mei
Tammeka
Nõmme United
3
2
W
14.03.26
Mei
Tammeka
Kuressaare
2
3
L
27.02.26
Fri
Tammeka
Riga Mariners
1
1
D
08.02.26
Fri
Tammeka
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
4
L
31.01.26
Fri
Tammeka
Nõmme United
6
0
W
17.01.26
Fri
Tammeka
Trans Narva
2
1
W
H2H away: Tammeka
18.04.26
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
15.08.25
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
8
1
L
17.05.25
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
2
1
L
18.09.24
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
2
2
D
23.05.24
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
1
1
D
05.11.23
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
2
0
L
08.04.23
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
1
0
L

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 13 4 1 46:15 31 43
L D W W W
2 17 11 0 6 35:19 16 33
W L W L W
3 18 9 4 5 30:15 15 31
D D L D L
4 18 8 5 5 27:22 5 29
D W W D D
5 16 7 2 7 18:20 -2 23
W W D L W
6 17 7 2 8 21:31 -10 23
W L D W L
7 17 6 1 10 33:40 -7 19
W L W L L
8 17 6 1 10 21:30 -9 19
L L L W L
9 17 5 2 10 17:27 -10 17
L D W D W
10 17 3 1 13 11:40 -29 10
L D L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga