ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Parnu Rannastaadion
Referee: J. Jaanovits
Vaprus
Match Timeline
Flora Tallinn
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
20'
J. Poder · Assist: K. Aloe
Vaprus
🟨
28'
J. Poder
Vaprus
34'
V. Kreida
Flora Tallinn
🟨
53'
R. Sappinen
Flora Tallinn
VAR
57'
V. Kreida
Flora Tallinn
🔄
60'
S. Alamaa ↔ R. Alliku
Flora Tallinn
🔄
60'
N. Kalmokov ↔ R. Valdmets
Flora Tallinn
🟨
62'
T. Varjund
Flora Tallinn
🔄
67'
J. Poder ↔ V. Vallik
Vaprus
🔄
67'
S. Viidas ↔ S. Kapper
Vaprus
77'
O. Pihela · Assist: V. Kreida
Flora Tallinn
🔄
78'
M. Villota ↔ R. Orm
Vaprus
🔄
78'
S. Zenjov ↔ A. Kaares
Flora Tallinn
🟨
79'
R. Alliku
Flora Tallinn
🔄
86'
R. Sappinen ↔ T. Usta
Flora Tallinn
🟨
90+4'
I. Antonov
Flora Tallinn
🔄
90'
H. Valja ↔ K. Kauber
Vaprus
🔄
90'
T. Pajo ↔ U. Nomm
Vaprus

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
64.5%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vaprus Win 31.3%
Draw 4.2%
Flora Tallinn Win 64.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vaprus1.51
Flora Tallinn1.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vaprus Vaprus
WWDLW
38 GF / 41 GA
Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn
WLDWL
41 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.81
Average Goals Scored
1.95
1.95
Average Goals Conceded
1.05
12
BTTS Yes
6
14
Over 2.5
14
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vaprus Vaprus 21 matches
Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn 21 matches
Vaprus Statistic Flora Tallinn
8 Wins 13
3 Draws 1
10 Losses 7
38 Goals For 41
41 Goals Against 22
1.81 Avg Goals Scored 1.95
1.95 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
12 BTTS Yes 6
18 Over 1.5 16
14 Over 2.5 14
9 Over 3.5 9
5 Clean Sheets 10
6 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Flora Tallinn's more proactive style and Vaprus's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Flora Tallinn carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 27 points while Vaprus sit 6 on 19, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Flora Tallinn. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Flora Tallinn having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Vaprus Analysis

Vaprus are currently 6 in the standings with 19 points from 14 matches. The record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 19:29 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through H. Valja (8 goals), M. Limberg (3 goals), S. Viidas (3 goals), with creative support from M. Limberg (3 assists), M. Lepik (2 assists), K. Aloe (1 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Flora Tallinn Analysis

Placed 3 with 27 points from 13 outings, Flora Tallinn continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 9 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 29:12 reflects poor form . Their attacking weight is carried by R. Sappinen (8 goals), S. Zenjov (5 goals), S. Alamaa (4 goals), with creative support from S. Alamaa (5 assists), R. Sappinen (4 assists), S. Zenjov (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vaprus won 2 times, Flora Tallinn won 11 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:28 from Vaprus's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.9%)
H2H summary: Vaprus wins 2, draws 2, Flora Tallinn wins 11

Lineups

Vaprus
Formation
Flora Tallinn
O. Nomm
O. Nomm
M. Seppik
M. Seppik
M. Lipp
M. Lipp
K. Aloe
🎯
K. Aloe
J. Sild
J. Sild
M. Villota
M. Villota
H. Valja
H. Valja
S. Viidas
S. Viidas
T. Pajo
T. Pajo
J. Poder
J. Poder
M. Limberg
M. Limberg
E. Grunvald
E. Grunvald
S. Alamaa
S. Alamaa
M. Kolobov
M. Kolobov
O. Pihela
O. Pihela
A. Kollo
A. Kollo
N. Kalmokov
N. Kalmokov
V. Kreida
🎯
V. Kreida
T. Varjund
T. Varjund
I. Antonov
I. Antonov
S. Zenjov
S. Zenjov
R. Sappinen
R. Sappinen
Vaprus 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
16
O. Nomm
43
M. Seppik
28
M. Lipp
15
K. Aloe
🎯 20'
90
J. Sild
24
M. Villota
↓ 78'
20
H. Valja
↓ 90'
10
S. Viidas
↓ 67'
8
T. Pajo
↓ 90'
9
J. Poder
⚽ 20' ↓ 67' 🟨 28'
42
M. Limberg
Substitutes
1
H. Vainu
7
V. Vallik
↑ 67'
11
K. Kauber
↑ 90'
14
R. Orm
↑ 78'
17
S. Kapper
↑ 67'
47
S. Kolvart
64
J. Allas
66
U. Nomm
↑ 90'
Flora Tallinn 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
33
E. Grunvald
29
S. Alamaa
↓ 60'
23
M. Kolobov
24
O. Pihela
⚽ 77'
3
A. Kollo
2
N. Kalmokov
↓ 60'
32
V. Kreida
⚽ 34' 🎯 77'
14
T. Varjund
🟨 62'
67
I. Antonov
🟨 90+4'
20
S. Zenjov
↓ 78'
11
R. Sappinen
↓ 86' 🟨 53'
Substitutes
99
K. Kivila
5
A. Vaher
6
R. Veering
7
D. Kuraksin
8
T. Teevali
9
R. Alliku
↑ 60' 🟨 79'
17
T. Usta
↑ 86'
18
R. Valdmets
↑ 60'
21
A. Kaares
↑ 78'
53
R. Sammul
89
M. Kalimullin
Last matches: Vaprus
26.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
13.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
30.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
W
24.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
6
L
16.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
2
1
W
09.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
W
02.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
3
L
26.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
21.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
18.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
12.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
2
L
08.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
04.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
0
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
2
L
14.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
1
7
L
07.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
3
2
W
15.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Tallinna Kalev
6
0
W
04.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Metta / LU
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
9
2
W
Last matches: Flora Tallinn
28.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
1
W
21.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
29.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
4
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
3
0
W
10.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
30.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
5
0
W
26.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
1
W
22.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
6
0
W
19.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
4
L
12.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
0
W
07.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
2
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
1
3
L
22.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
0
2
L
15.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
07.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
3
0
W
24.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Riga
0
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Paide
3
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Ogre United
1
0
W
H2H: Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn
16.06.26
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
12.04.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
0
L
17.01.26
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
2
2
D
08.11.25
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
13.09.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
3
0
L
02.05.25
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
08.03.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
0
1
W
29.09.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
3
0
L
23.08.24
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
11.05.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
0
1
W
14.04.24
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
3
L
18.02.24
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
25.11.23
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
1
0
L
01.10.23
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
28.07.23
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
1
1
D
Last matches: Vaprus
26.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
30.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
W
24.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
6
L
09.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
W
02.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
3
L
18.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
04.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
0
2
L
07.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
3
2
W
15.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
L
04.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Metta / LU
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
9
2
W
17.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
2
2
D
H2H at home: Vaprus
16.06.26
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
17.01.26
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
2
2
D
08.11.25
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
02.05.25
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
23.08.24
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
14.04.24
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
3
L
18.02.24
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
01.10.23
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
Last matches: Flora Tallinn
28.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
1
W
29.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
4
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
3
0
W
10.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
26.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
1
W
19.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
4
L
03.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
1
3
L
22.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
0
2
L
20.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Paide
3
1
W
25.01.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
AIK Stockholm
0
1
L
17.01.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
2
D
10.07.25
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Valur Reykjavik
0
3
L
H2H away: Flora Tallinn
16.06.26
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
W
17.01.26
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
2
2
D
08.11.25
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
3
W
02.05.25
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
3
W
23.08.24
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
1
W
14.04.24
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
3
W
18.02.24
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
3
W
01.10.23
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
1
W

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 13 4 1 46:15 31 43
L D W W W
2 17 11 0 6 35:19 16 33
W L W L W
3 18 9 4 5 30:15 15 31
D D L D L
4 18 8 5 5 27:22 5 29
D W W D D
5 16 7 2 7 18:20 -2 23
W W D L W
6 17 7 2 8 21:31 -10 23
W L D W L
7 17 6 1 10 33:40 -7 19
W L W L L
8 17 6 1 10 21:30 -9 19
L L L W L
9 17 5 2 10 17:27 -10 17
L D W D W
10 17 3 1 13 11:40 -29 10
L D L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga