SPAIN › LA LIGA
20.09.2026 19:00
Estadio de Mestalla
Referee: José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
Valencia
Match Timeline
Real Sociedad
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
Justin De Haas
Valencia
🟨
12'
José Luis Gayà
Valencia
⚽
26'
L. Sucic · Assist: J. Ochieng
Real Sociedad
🔄
46'
F. Ugrinic ↔ D. Otorbi
Valencia
🟨
54'
Luka Sučić
Real Sociedad
⚽
57'
A. Mayol · Assist: H. Duro
Valencia
🔄
61'
M. Oyarzabal ↔ O. Oskarsson
Real Sociedad
🔄
61'
J. Ochieng ↔ A. Barrenetxea
Real Sociedad
🔄
69'
G. Rodriguez ↔ H. Elliott
Valencia
🔄
69'
S. Gomez ↔ A. Munoz
Real Sociedad
🔄
69'
J. Gorrotxategi ↔ Y. Herrera
Real Sociedad
⚽
76'
C. Soler
Real Sociedad
🔄
82'
J. Gaya ↔ J. Vazquez
Valencia
🔄
82'
H. Duro ↔ A. Blazquez
Valencia
⚽
84'
L. Beitia
Valencia
🔄
87'
L. Sucic ↔ A. Zakharyan
Real Sociedad
🔄
88'
A. Danjuma ↔ L. Rioja
Valencia
🟨
90+6'
Orri Óskarsson
Real Sociedad
🟨
90+6'
Orri Óskarsson
Real Sociedad
🟥
90+6'
Orri Óskarsson
Real Sociedad
⚽
90'
A. Barrenetxea · Assist: C. Soler
Real Sociedad

Valencia vs Real Sociedad Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 60.3%
Odds 2.63
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.70
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.00
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
60.3%
2.63 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.70 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.00 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Valencia Win 9%
Draw 30.7%
Real Sociedad Win 60.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Valencia1.23
Real Sociedad1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
Valencia Valencia
WWDLW
11 GF / 20 GA
Real Sociedad Real Sociedad
WLDWL
17 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
0.85
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.54
Average Goals Conceded
1.79
6
BTTS Yes
10
7
Over 2.5
10
2.33
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Valencia Valencia 13 matches
Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 14 matches
Valencia Statistic Real Sociedad
3 Wins 4
2 Draws 2
8 Losses 8
11 Goals For 17
20 Goals Against 25
0.85 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.54 Avg Goals Conceded 1.79
6 BTTS Yes 10
8 Over 1.5 11
7 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 4
3 Clean Sheets 1
5 Failed To Score 4
2.33 Shots On Goal 5
8.67 Total Shots 12.71
4 Corners 8
46.5% Ball Possession 50.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Real Sociedad. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Valencia have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Real Sociedad carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 11 with 7 points while Valencia sit 20 on 1, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Valencia expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Real Sociedad in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Real Sociedad having the stronger overall control.

Valencia Analysis

With 1 points from 5 games and a place of 20, Valencia still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats with a 1:10 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Umar Sadiq (1 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Real Sociedad Analysis

So far, Real Sociedad have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 7 points from 5 matches. The record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 6:8 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through L. Sučić (2 goals), J. Ochieng (1 goals), Y. Herrera (1 goals), with creative support from J. Ochieng (2 assists), Mikel Oyarzabal (2 assists), Carlos Soler (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Valencia won 4 times, Real Sociedad won 4 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:16 from Valencia's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.87 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (91%)
Predicted formations: Valencia 5-4-1 / Real Sociedad 4-4-2
Missing players: Valencia 7, Real Sociedad 2
H2H summary: Valencia wins 4, draws 7, Real Sociedad wins 4

Standings

La Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 7 0 0 31:7 24 21
W W W W W
2 7 5 1 1 16:7 9 16
W W W L W
3 7 5 1 1 9:7 2 16
D W W W L
4 7 5 0 2 18:8 10 15
L W W L W
5 7 4 1 2 10:9 1 13
L W W D L
6 7 3 2 2 11:6 5 11
D L L W W
7 7 2 4 1 10:8 2 10
D L D W W
8 7 3 1 3 9:13 -4 10
W L W D W
9 7 2 2 3 13:12 1 8
W W L L L
10 6 2 2 2 7:6 1 8
D D W W L
11 7 2 2 3 4:7 -3 8
W L D D L
12 7 2 2 3 11:16 -5 8
D W L W L
13 7 2 2 3 6:13 -7 8
D L L L W
14 7 1 4 2 8:6 2 7
W D D D L
15 7 2 1 4 10:10 0 7
L L W D L
16 7 2 1 4 11:21 -10 7
L L W L W
17 6 1 2 3 8:12 -4 5
L L D W D
18 7 1 2 4 11:17 -6 5
W L D L L
19 7 1 1 5 4:13 -9 4
L W L L L
20 7 0 3 4 3:12 -9 3
L L D D L
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Relegation