SPAIN LA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio de Mestalla
Referee: A. Quintero
Valencia
Match Timeline
Rayo Vallecano
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
6'
Renzo Saravia
Valencia
20'
F. Lejeune · Assist: G. Gumbau
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
32'
Renzo Saravia ↔ U. Nunez
Valencia
40'
D. Lopez · Assist: J. Guerra
Valencia
🟨
56'
Randy Nteka
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
60'
R. Nteka ↔ Alemao
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
60'
F. Perez ↔ J. de Frutos
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
60'
O. Valentin ↔ P. Ciss
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
61'
H. Duro ↔ U. Sadiq
Valencia
🔄
61'
Pepelu ↔ F. Ugrinic
Valencia
🔄
61'
J. Guerra ↔ L. Ramazani
Valencia
🔄
63'
J. Gaya ↔ J. Vazquez
Valencia
🔄
67'
G. Gumbau ↔ U. Lopez
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
73'
I. Balliu ↔ A. Ratiu
Rayo Vallecano

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 60%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
60%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Valencia Win 54.7%
Draw 7.8%
Rayo Vallecano Win 37.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Valencia1.19
Rayo Vallecano1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Valencia Valencia
WWDLW
50 GF / 53 GA
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano
WLDWL
74 GF / 59 GA
Key Stats
1.25
Average Goals Scored
1.4
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
20
BTTS Yes
24
17
Over 2.5
25
3.28
Shots on Goal
4.87

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Valencia Valencia 40 matches
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 53 matches
Valencia Statistic Rayo Vallecano
15 Wins 23
9 Draws 14
16 Losses 16
50 Goals For 74
53 Goals Against 59
1.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
20 BTTS Yes 24
32 Over 1.5 38
17 Over 2.5 25
8 Over 3.5 13
12 Clean Sheets 18
9 Failed To Score 14
3.28 Shots On Goal 4.87
11.58 Total Shots 14.58
4.95 Corners 6.13
48% Ball Possession 53.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Rayo Vallecano. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Valencia expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Rayo Vallecano in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rayo Vallecano having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Valencia Analysis

Valencia sit 12 with 42 points after 35 league matches. The record of 11 wins, 9 draws, and 15 defeats, together with a 38:50 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through H. Duro (9 goals), L. Ramazani (6 goals), A. Danjuma (3 goals), with creative support from L. Rioja (6 assists), Javier Guerra (5 assists), F. Ugrinic (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with J. Copete, M. Diakhaby, D. Foulquier unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Rayo Vallecano Analysis

From their first 35 matches, Rayo Vallecano have collected 43 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Their overall return of 10 wins, 13 draws, and 12 losses with goals at 36:42 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. de Frutos (10 goals), A. Garcia (4 goals), Alemao (3 goals), with creative support from A. Garcia (5 assists), Unai López (4 assists), I. Palazon (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without I. Akhomach, D. Mendez, Luiz Felipe, I. Palazon, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Valencia won 2 times, Rayo Vallecano won 3 times, while 10 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:14 from Valencia's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 1.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.3%)
Predicted formations: Valencia 4-4-2 / Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Valencia 4, Rayo Vallecano 4
H2H summary: Valencia wins 2, draws 10, Rayo Vallecano wins 3
Stats
Valencia Valencia
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
2
5 Corner Kicks 1
9 Fouls 20
1 Offsides 2
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Goal 3
4 Shots off Goal 1
5 Blocked Shots 2
6 Shots insidebox 5
6 Shots outsidebox 1
2 Goalkeeper Saves 2
439 Total passes 404
349 Passes accurate 313
0.76 expected_goals 1.16
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Valencia
Formation
Rayo Vallecano
S. Dimitrievski
S. Dimitrievski
Renzo Saravia
Renzo Saravia
C. Tarrega
C. Tarrega
E. Comert
E. Comert
J. Gaya
J. Gaya
D. Lopez
D. Lopez
Pepelu
Pepelu
G. Rodriguez
G. Rodriguez
L. Rioja
L. Rioja
H. Duro
H. Duro
J. Guerra
🎯
J. Guerra
A. Batalla
A. Batalla
I. Balliu
I. Balliu
F. Lejeune
F. Lejeune
N. Mendy
N. Mendy
P. Chavarria
P. Chavarria
O. Valentin
O. Valentin
G. Gumbau
🎯
G. Gumbau
F. Perez
F. Perez
P. Diaz
P. Diaz
Pacha
Pacha
R. Nteka
R. Nteka
Valencia 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
S. Dimitrievski
G
20
Renzo Saravia
↓ 32' 🟨 6'
D
5
C. Tarrega
D
24
E. Comert
D
14
J. Gaya
↓ 63'
D
16
D. Lopez
⚽ 40'
M
18
Pepelu
↓ 61'
M
2
G. Rodriguez
M
11
L. Rioja
M
9
H. Duro
↓ 61'
F
8
J. Guerra
🎯 40' ↓ 61'
F
Substitutes
25
J. Agirrezabala
G
22
B. Santamaria
M
4
U. Nunez
↑ 32'
D
6
U. Sadiq
↑ 61'
F
7
A. Danjuma
F
12
T. Rendall
D
19
D. Raba
F
23
F. Ugrinic
↑ 61'
M
17
L. Ramazani
↑ 61'
F
10
A. Almeida
M
21
J. Vazquez
↑ 63'
D
26
Rubo
D
Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
13
A. Batalla
G
20
I. Balliu
↓ 73'
D
24
F. Lejeune
⚽ 20'
D
32
N. Mendy
D
3
P. Chavarria
D
23
O. Valentin
↓ 60'
M
15
G. Gumbau
🎯 20' ↓ 67'
M
21
F. Perez
↓ 60'
M
4
P. Diaz
M
22
Pacha
M
11
R. Nteka
↓ 60' 🟨 56'
F
Substitutes
1
D. Cardenas
G
30
J. Gil
G
8
O. Trejo
M
17
U. Lopez
↑ 67'
M
9
Alemao
↑ 60'
F
14
C. Martin
F
33
J. Vertrouwd
D
16
A. Mumin
D
19
J. de Frutos
↑ 60'
F
6
P. Ciss
↑ 60'
M
10
S. Camello
F
2
A. Ratiu
↑ 73'
D
Last matches: Valencia
23.05.26
La
Valencia
Barcelona
3
1
W
17.05.26
La
Valencia
Real Sociedad
4
3
W
10.05.26
La
Valencia
Athletic Club
1
0
W
02.05.26
La
Valencia
Atletico Madrid
0
2
L
25.04.26
La
Valencia
Girona
2
1
W
21.04.26
La
Valencia
Mallorca
1
1
D
11.04.26
La
Valencia
Elche
0
1
L
05.04.26
La
Valencia
Celta Vigo
2
3
L
21.03.26
La
Valencia
Sevilla
2
0
W
14.03.26
La
Valencia
Oviedo
0
1
L
08.03.26
La
Valencia
Alaves
3
2
W
01.03.26
La
Valencia
Osasuna
1
0
W
22.02.26
La
Valencia
Villarreal
1
2
L
15.02.26
La
Valencia
Levante
2
0
W
08.02.26
La
Valencia
Real Madrid
0
2
L
04.02.26
Cop
Valencia
Athletic Club
1
2
L
01.02.26
La
Valencia
Real Betis
1
2
L
24.01.26
La
Valencia
Espanyol
3
2
W
18.01.26
La
Valencia
Getafe
1
0
W
15.01.26
Cop
Valencia
Burgos
2
0
W
Last matches: Rayo Vallecano
27.05.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Crystal Palace
0
1
L
23.05.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
2
1
W
17.05.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Villarreal
2
0
W
11.05.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Girona
1
1
D
07.05.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Strasbourg
1
0
W
03.05.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Getafe
2
0
W
30.04.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Strasbourg
1
0
W
26.04.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Real Sociedad
3
3
D
23.04.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Espanyol
1
0
W
16.04.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
AEK Athens FC
1
3
L
12.04.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Mallorca
0
3
L
09.04.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
AEK Athens FC
3
0
W
03.04.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
1
0
W
22.03.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Barcelona
0
1
L
19.03.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Samsunspor
0
1
L
16.03.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Levante
1
1
D
12.03.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Samsunspor
3
1
W
08.03.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Sevilla
1
1
D
04.03.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Oviedo
3
0
W
28.02.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Club
1
1
D
H2H: Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano
14.05.26
H2H
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
1
1
D
01.12.25
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Valencia
1
1
D
19.04.25
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Valencia
1
1
D
07.12.24
H2H
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
0
1
L
12.05.24
H2H
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
0
0
D
19.12.23
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Valencia
0
1
W
03.04.23
H2H
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
1
1
D
10.09.22
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Valencia
2
1
L
11.04.22
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Valencia
1
1
D
27.11.21
H2H
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
1
1
D
06.04.19
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Valencia
2
0
L
24.11.18
H2H
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
3
0
W
17.01.16
H2H
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
2
2
D
22.08.15
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Valencia
0
0
D
30.04.15
H2H
Rayo Vallecano
Valencia
1
1
D
Last matches: Valencia
23.05.26
La
Valencia
Barcelona
3
1
W
02.05.26
La
Valencia
Atletico Madrid
0
2
L
25.04.26
La
Valencia
Girona
2
1
W
05.04.26
La
Valencia
Celta Vigo
2
3
L
08.03.26
La
Valencia
Alaves
3
2
W
01.03.26
La
Valencia
Osasuna
1
0
W
08.02.26
La
Valencia
Real Madrid
0
2
L
04.02.26
Cop
Valencia
Athletic Club
1
2
L
24.01.26
La
Valencia
Espanyol
3
2
W
10.01.26
La
Valencia
Elche
1
1
D
19.12.25
La
Valencia
Mallorca
1
1
D
07.12.25
La
Valencia
Sevilla
1
1
D
21.11.25
La
Valencia
Levante
1
0
W
09.11.25
La
Valencia
Real Betis
1
1
D
25.10.25
La
Valencia
Villarreal
0
2
L
30.09.25
La
Valencia
Oviedo
1
2
L
20.09.25
La
Valencia
Athletic Club
2
0
W
29.08.25
La
Valencia
Getafe
3
0
W
16.08.25
La
Valencia
Real Sociedad
1
1
D
H2H at home: Valencia
14.05.26
H2H
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
1
1
D
07.12.24
H2H
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
0
1
L
12.05.24
H2H
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
0
0
D
03.04.23
H2H
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
1
1
D
27.11.21
H2H
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
1
1
D
24.11.18
H2H
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
3
0
W
17.01.16
H2H
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
2
2
D
Last matches: Rayo Vallecano
27.05.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Crystal Palace
0
1
L
23.05.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
2
1
W
07.05.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Strasbourg
1
0
W
03.05.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Getafe
2
0
W
16.04.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
AEK Athens FC
1
3
L
12.04.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Mallorca
0
3
L
22.03.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Barcelona
0
1
L
12.03.26
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Samsunspor
3
1
W
08.03.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Sevilla
1
1
D
21.02.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Real Betis
1
1
D
01.02.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid
1
2
L
18.01.26
La
Rayo Vallecano
Celta Vigo
0
3
L
14.01.26
Cop
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
0
2
L
06.01.26
Cop
Rayo Vallecano
Granada CF
3
1
W
21.12.25
La
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
0
4
L
11.12.25
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Jagiellonia
2
1
W
07.12.25
La
Rayo Vallecano
Espanyol
0
1
L
04.12.25
Cop
Rayo Vallecano
Real Ávila
2
1
W
27.11.25
UEF
Rayo Vallecano
Slovan Bratislava
1
2
L
23.11.25
La
Rayo Vallecano
Oviedo
0
0
D
H2H away: Rayo Vallecano
14.05.26
H2H
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
1
1
D
07.12.24
H2H
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
0
1
W
12.05.24
H2H
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
0
0
D
03.04.23
H2H
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
1
1
D
27.11.21
H2H
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
1
1
D
24.11.18
H2H
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
3
0
L
17.01.16
H2H
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
2
2
D

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15 38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2

Missing Players

Valencia 4 missing
-
J. Copete
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
M. Diakhaby
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
D. Foulquier
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
L. Beltran
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
Rayo Vallecano 4 missing
-
I. Akhomach
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
D. Mendez
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Luiz Felipe
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
I. Palazon
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT