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SPAIN › LA LIGA
02.05.2026 14:15
Estadio de Mestalla
Referee: J. Munuera
Valencia
Match Timeline
Atletico Madrid
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
29'
Thiago Almada
Atletico Madrid
🟨
52'
Rodrigo Mendoza
Atletico Madrid
🔄
59'
L. Rioja ↔ D. Lopez
Valencia
🔄
59'
F. Ugrinic ↔ H. Duro
Valencia
🟨
61'
Obed Vargas
Atletico Madrid
🔄
63'
R. Belaid ↔ I. Luque
Atletico Madrid
🔄
63'
J. Morcillo ↔ M. Cubo
Atletico Madrid
🟨
67'
César Tárrega
Valencia
🔄
73'
L. Ramazani ↔ A. Danjuma
Valencia
🔄
73'
J. Gaya ↔ J. Vazquez
Valencia
🔄
73'
T. Almada ↔ Koke
Atletico Madrid
🔄
73'
R. Mendoza ↔ A. Griezmann
Atletico Madrid
⚽
74'
I. Luque · Assist: O. Vargas
Atletico Madrid
🔄
82'
Renzo Saravia ↔ D. Raba
Valencia
⚽
82'
M. Cubo · Assist: A. Griezmann
Atletico Madrid
VAR
83'
Miguel Cubo
Atletico Madrid
🔄
90+7'
J. Bonar ↔ A. Puric
Atletico Madrid

Valencia vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 59.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 83.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
59.2%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
83.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Valencia Win 37.3%
Draw 3.5%
Atletico Madrid Win 59.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Valencia1.3
Atletico Madrid1.71
Recent Form (Last 5)
Valencia Valencia
WWDLW
49 GF / 51 GA
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid
WLDWL
106 GF / 71 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1.96
1.34
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
20
BTTS Yes
33
17
Over 2.5
34
3.37
Shots on Goal
5.31

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Valencia Valencia 38 matches
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 54 matches
Valencia Statistic Atletico Madrid
14 Wins 29
9 Draws 10
15 Losses 15
49 Goals For 106
51 Goals Against 71
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.96
1.34 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
20 BTTS Yes 33
31 Over 1.5 45
17 Over 2.5 34
8 Over 3.5 22
11 Clean Sheets 16
8 Failed To Score 6
3.37 Shots On Goal 5.31
11.68 Total Shots 13.37
5.05 Corners 5.89
47.9% Ball Possession 52.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Atletico Madrid's more proactive style and Valencia's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Atletico Madrid carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 60 points while Valencia sit 12 on 39, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Atletico Madrid arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Atletico Madrid. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Valencia Analysis

From their first 33 matches, Valencia have collected 39 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 9 draws, and 14 losses, while the 37:48 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on H. Duro (9 goals), L. Ramazani (6 goals), A. Danjuma (3 goals), with creative support from L. Rioja (5 assists), Javier Guerra (5 assists), F. Ugrinic (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico Madrid Analysis

With 60 points from 33 games and a place of 4, Atletico Madrid still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 18 wins, 6 draws, and 9 defeats with a 56:37 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Sorloth (12 goals), J. Alvarez (8 goals), A. Griezmann (7 goals), with creative support from G. Simeone (6 assists), J. Alvarez (4 assists), Marcos Llorente (4 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Valencia won 1 times, Atletico Madrid won 11 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:32 from Valencia's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.5%)
Predicted formations: Valencia 4-4-2 / Atletico Madrid 4-4-2
H2H summary: Valencia wins 1, draws 3, Atletico Madrid wins 11

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15 38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2