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23.04.2026 01:30
Estadio Monumental
Referee: S. Lozano
Universitario
Match Timeline
Deportivo Garcilaso
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
23'
A. Valera · Assist: E. Flores
Universitario
⚽
28'
C. Fara
Universitario
🔄
46'
E. Flores ↔ J. Rivera
Universitario
🔄
46'
A. Ascues ↔ K. Sandoval
Deportivo Garcilaso
⚽
65'
A. Valera
Universitario
🔄
66'
A. Gonzalez ↔ A. Graneros
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
66'
C. Torrejon ↔ C. I. Ramos Rodriguez
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
66'
X. Moreno ↔ O. Nunez
Deportivo Garcilaso
⚽
72'
C. Olivares · Assist: B. Da Silva
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
74'
H. Calcaterra ↔ H. Fertoli
Universitario
🔄
74'
A. Valera ↔ B. Reyna
Universitario
🔄
74'
A. Gomez ↔ J. Sinisterra
Deportivo Garcilaso
🟨
79'
C. I. Ramos Rodriguez
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
80'
J. Castillo ↔ J. Murrugarra
Universitario
⚽
84'
J. Rivera · Assist: J. Concha
Universitario
🔄
90+1'
J. Carabali ↔ C. Inga
Universitario

Universitario vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 91.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 54.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 68.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
91.2%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
54.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
68.9%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Universitario Win 91.2%
Draw 0%
Deportivo Garcilaso Win 8.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Universitario1.24
Deportivo Garcilaso0.97
Recent Form (Last 5)
Universitario Universitario
WWDLW
19 GF / 14 GA
Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso
WLDWL
10 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
1
0.93
Average Goals Conceded
1.2
6
BTTS Yes
6
6
Over 2.5
3
4.17
Shots on Goal
4.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Universitario Universitario 15 matches
Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 10 matches
Universitario Statistic Deportivo Garcilaso
7 Wins 2
4 Draws 4
4 Losses 4
19 Goals For 10
14 Goals Against 12
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 1
0.93 Avg Goals Conceded 1.2
6 BTTS Yes 6
10 Over 1.5 6
6 Over 2.5 3
3 Over 3.5 2
7 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 3
4.17 Shots On Goal 4.5
13.08 Total Shots 13.1
6.08 Corners 3.9
52.9% Ball Possession 49.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Universitario's more proactive style and Deportivo Garcilaso's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Deportivo Garcilaso. Universitario arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 18 points compared to Deportivo Garcilaso in 15 on 10, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Universitario expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Deportivo Garcilaso in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Deportivo Garcilaso having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Universitario Analysis

Universitario arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 18 points after 10 matches. The record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 12:7 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Valera (5 goals), J. Concha (2 goals), L. Alzugaray (2 goals), with creative support from J. Concha (3 assists), J. Carabali (3 assists), A. Valera (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Deportivo Garcilaso Analysis

Deportivo Garcilaso approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 10 points from 10 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 9:10 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on B. Da Silva (3 goals), A. Salazar (2 goals), F. Arancibia (2 goals), with creative support from B. Da Silva (2 assists), Agustín González (1 assists), C. I. Ramos Rodriguez (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Universitario won 3 times, Deportivo Garcilaso won 0 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:5 from Universitario's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.29 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Universitario 5-3-2 / Deportivo Garcilaso 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Universitario wins 3, draws 4, Deportivo Garcilaso wins 0

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 17 8 3 46:19 27 59
W W L D L
2 28 14 8 6 45:33 12 50
D L W D W
3 28 14 6 8 39:25 14 48
L W L W W
4 28 13 8 7 47:31 16 47
D D W W L
5 28 14 3 11 41:40 1 45
L W L W W
6 28 13 5 10 48:40 8 44
W D L W L
7 28 12 7 9 43:36 7 43
W W L W W
8 28 12 7 9 36:45 -9 43
D D L L L
9 28 12 5 11 49:40 9 41
W W W W L
10 28 10 8 10 30:29 1 38
L D W L W
11 28 11 5 12 38:44 -6 38
W W W W W
12 28 9 8 11 43:53 -10 35
D W W D W
13 28 9 6 13 26:31 -5 33
D L W L W
14 28 7 10 11 36:39 -3 31
D L L D L
15 28 7 7 14 41:52 -11 28
D L W L W
16 28 6 8 14 29:42 -13 26
D W L L L
17 28 6 7 15 24:43 -19 25
L L L L L
18 28 4 8 16 32:51 -19 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2