CHILE PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Ester Roa
Referee: J. Cabero
Universidad de Concepcion
Match Timeline
D. La Serena
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
10'
A. Oroz ↔ M. Pinto
D. La Serena
25'
A. Henriquez · Assist: M. Pinto
D. La Serena
🟨
27'
Matías Marín
D. La Serena
🟨
31'
Bryan Ogaz
Universidad de Concepcion
VAR
42'
Ian Rasso
D. La Serena
🟨
45+3'
Matías Pinto
D. La Serena
🔄
46'
M. Suazo ↔ I. Gonzalez
Universidad de Concepcion
60'
R. Delgado · Assist: F. Chamorro
D. La Serena
🔄
62'
J. Espejo ↔ C. Mesias
Universidad de Concepcion
🔄
63'
B. Ogaz ↔ H. Salgado
Universidad de Concepcion
🟨
66'
Francis Mac Allister
D. La Serena
🔄
69'
A. Henriquez ↔ D. Rubio
D. La Serena
🔄
73'
J. Fuentealba ↔ P. Parra
Universidad de Concepcion
🔄
77'
F. Mater ↔ M. Gonzalez
Universidad de Concepcion
🔄
78'
↔ J. Gutierrez
D. La Serena

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 71.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
71.7%
-
BTTS Yes
75%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Universidad de Concepcion Win 28.3%
Draw 29.9%
D. La Serena Win 41.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Universidad de Concepcion1.25
D. La Serena1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
Universidad de Concepcion Universidad de Concepcion
WWDLW
21 GF / 40 GA
D. La Serena D. La Serena
WLDWL
35 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
0.91
Average Goals Scored
1.4
1.74
Average Goals Conceded
1.76
11
BTTS Yes
15
12
Over 2.5
14
4
Shots on Goal
4.06

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Universidad de Concepcion Universidad de Concepcion 23 matches
D. La Serena D. La Serena 25 matches
Universidad de Concepcion Statistic D. La Serena
6 Wins 6
5 Draws 9
12 Losses 10
21 Goals For 35
40 Goals Against 44
0.91 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
1.74 Avg Goals Conceded 1.76
11 BTTS Yes 15
15 Over 1.5 17
12 Over 2.5 14
6 Over 3.5 11
6 Clean Sheets 6
7 Failed To Score 6
4 Shots On Goal 4.06
12.88 Total Shots 11
5.06 Corners 4.17
50.3% Ball Possession 47.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Universidad de Concepcion expected to line up in 4-3-3 and D. La Serena in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward D. La Serena having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors D. La Serena. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Universidad de Concepcion Analysis

Universidad de Concepcion approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 19 points from 16 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 13:27, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Cecilio Waterman (3 goals), Jeison Fuentealba (1 goals), Osvaldo González (1 goals), with creative support from Yerco Oyanedel (2 assists), Agustín Urzi (2 assists), Bryan Ogaz (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

D. La Serena Analysis

So far, D. La Serena have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 19 points from 17 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, while the 25:30 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Jeisson Vargas (4 goals), Felipe Chamorro (2 goals), Diego Rubio (2 goals), with creative support from Jeisson Vargas (4 assists), Felipe Chamorro (1 assists), Bruno Gutiérrez (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Universidad de Concepcion won 4 times, D. La Serena won 5 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:12 from Universidad de Concepcion's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (71.7%)
Predicted formations: Universidad de Concepcion 4-3-3 / D. La Serena 5-4-1
H2H summary: Universidad de Concepcion wins 4, draws 1, D. La Serena wins 5
Stats
Universidad de Concepcion Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena D. La Serena
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
2
8 Corner Kicks 2
10 Fouls 16
0 Offsides 4
68% Ball Possession 32%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Goal 4
6 Shots off Goal 5
3 Blocked Shots 2
9 Shots insidebox 8
5 Shots outsidebox 3
2 Goalkeeper Saves 5
502 Total passes 239
391 Passes accurate 134
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Universidad de Concepcion
Formation
D. La Serena
J. Broun
J. Broun
J. Espejo
J. Espejo
O. Gonzalez
O. Gonzalez
B. Ubal
B. Ubal
Y. A. Oyanedel Hernandez
Y. A. Oyanedel Hernandez
B. Ogaz
B. Ogaz
M. Suazo
M. Suazo
F. Mater
F. Mater
J. Fuentealba
J. Fuentealba
L. Rojas
L. Rojas
C. Waterman
C. Waterman
J. Tapia
J. Tapia
B. Gutierrez
B. Gutierrez
I. Rasso
I. Rasso
R. Delgado
R. Delgado
F. Dinamarca
F. Dinamarca
M. Marin
M. Marin
F. Mac Allister
F. Mac Allister
A. Oroz
A. Oroz
F. Chamorro
🎯
F. Chamorro
J. Vargas
J. Vargas
A. Henriquez
A. Henriquez
Universidad de Concepcion 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
1
J. Broun
G
21
J. Espejo
↓ 62'
D
4
O. Gonzalez
D
6
B. Ubal
15
Y. A. Oyanedel Hernandez
D
16
B. Ogaz
↓ 63' 🟨 31'
M
36
M. Suazo
↓ 46'
M
8
F. Mater
↓ 77'
M
10
J. Fuentealba
↓ 73'
M
20
L. Rojas
M
18
C. Waterman
F
Substitutes
13
J. Sanhueza
G
5
D. Retamal
D
3
M. Barbieri
D
11
A. Diaz
F
17
M. Gonzalez
↑ 77'
D
14
P. Parra
↑ 73'
M
19
C. Mesias
↑ 62'
D
7
I. Gonzalez
↑ 46'
F
25
H. Salgado
↑ 63'
D. La Serena 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
31
J. Tapia
21
B. Gutierrez
D
34
I. Rasso
D
33
R. Delgado
⚽ 60'
D
26
F. Dinamarca
D
23
M. Marin
🟨 27'
M
4
F. Mac Allister
🟨 66'
M
7
A. Oroz
↓ 10'
M
14
F. Chamorro
🎯 60'
M
10
J. Vargas
M
9
A. Henriquez
⚽ 25' ↓ 69'
F
Substitutes
38
I. Saez
G
16
J. Gutierrez
↑ 78'
D
29
M. Pinto
🎯 25' ↑ 10' 🟨 45+3'
D
28
J. Orellana
20
M. Velasquez
M
37
A. N. Bitancurt
M
27
C. Sepulveda
11
D. Rubio
↑ 69'
F
Last matches: Universidad de Concepcion
09.08.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Concepción
0
1
L
04.08.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Curico Unido
1
3
L
01.08.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
A. Italiano
0
1
L
05.07.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Rangers de Talca
2
0
W
01.07.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
0
1
L
28.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Curico Unido
2
2
D
25.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
2
4
L
20.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Rangers de Talca
1
2
L
14.06.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
U. Catolica
1
5
L
30.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Union La Calera
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
2
2
D
16.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
O'Higgins
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Colo Colo
1
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Deportes Limache
0
3
L
13.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Cobresal
1
0
W
07.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Huachipato
1
5
L
15.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Palestino
1
0
W
09.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Chile
1
1
D
01.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Everton de Vina
0
3
L
22.02.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
1
1
D
Last matches: D. La Serena
08.08.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Coquimbo Unido
1
1
D
02.08.26
Pri
D. La Serena
O'Higgins
1
2
L
26.07.26
Pri
D. La Serena
U. Catolica
3
3
D
12.07.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobreloa
0
1
L
05.07.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Antofagasta
2
4
L
01.07.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobresal
1
0
W
28.06.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobreloa
2
1
W
24.06.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobresal
0
0
D
21.06.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Antofagasta
2
4
L
13.06.26
Pri
D. La Serena
A. Italiano
1
1
D
30.05.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Colo Colo
2
4
L
24.05.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Deportes Limache
4
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Palestino
1
5
L
26.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Huachipato
0
0
D
19.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Concepción
3
3
D
11.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Everton de Vina
1
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Universidad de Chile
0
4
L
15.03.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Nublense
2
2
D
06.03.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Union La Calera
3
0
W
27.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Cobresal
1
0
W
H2H: Universidad de Concepcion vs D. La Serena
14.08.26
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
0
2
L
22.02.26
H2H
D. La Serena
Universidad de Concepcion
1
1
D
19.08.24
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
0
1
L
06.04.24
H2H
D. La Serena
Universidad de Concepcion
1
0
L
11.08.23
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
2
0
W
27.03.23
H2H
D. La Serena
Universidad de Concepcion
1
0
L
25.06.22
H2H
D. La Serena
Universidad de Concepcion
1
2
W
18.06.22
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
4
3
W
21.12.20
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
0
2
L
15.09.20
H2H
D. La Serena
Universidad de Concepcion
0
1
W
Last matches: Universidad de Concepcion
04.08.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Curico Unido
1
3
L
01.08.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
A. Italiano
0
1
L
05.07.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Rangers de Talca
2
0
W
01.07.26
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
0
1
L
30.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Union La Calera
0
0
D
26.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Colo Colo
1
2
L
13.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Cobresal
1
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Palestino
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Everton de Vina
0
3
L
15.02.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Concepción
2
1
W
31.01.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Coquimbo Unido
1
0
W
11.05.25
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Deportes Santa Cruz
0
0
D
22.03.25
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Curico Unido
1
1
D
31.01.25
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
2
3
L
03.07.24
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Linares Unido
0
0
D
27.09.23
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Magallanes
1
3
L
15.08.23
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Deportes Temuco
1
2
L
18.07.23
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Rangers de Talca
2
0
W
02.07.23
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Fernández Vial
1
0
W
17.08.22
Cop
Universidad de Concepcion
Magallanes
0
2
L
H2H at home: Universidad de Concepcion
14.08.26
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
0
2
L
19.08.24
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
0
1
L
11.08.23
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
2
0
W
18.06.22
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
4
3
W
21.12.20
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
0
2
L
Last matches: D. La Serena
08.08.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Coquimbo Unido
1
1
D
26.07.26
Pri
D. La Serena
U. Catolica
3
3
D
12.07.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobreloa
0
1
L
01.07.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobresal
1
0
W
21.06.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Antofagasta
2
4
L
13.06.26
Pri
D. La Serena
A. Italiano
1
1
D
16.05.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Palestino
1
5
L
19.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Concepción
3
3
D
05.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Universidad de Chile
0
4
L
15.03.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Nublense
2
2
D
27.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Cobresal
1
0
W
07.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
O'Higgins
0
1
L
07.09.25
Cop
D. La Serena
Deportes Limache
0
2
L
16.07.25
Cop
D. La Serena
Santiago Wanderers
5
1
W
06.06.25
Cop
D. La Serena
San Luis
1
3
L
22.03.25
Cop
D. La Serena
San Marcos de Arica
0
1
L
02.02.25
Cop
D. La Serena
Coquimbo Unido
1
1
D
27.01.25
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobresal
2
1
W
16.06.24
Cop
D. La Serena
Trasandino
2
2
D
24.06.23
Cop
D. La Serena
Coquimbo Unido
1
1
D
H2H away: D. La Serena
14.08.26
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
0
2
W
19.08.24
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
0
1
W
11.08.23
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
2
0
L
18.06.22
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
4
3
L
21.12.20
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
0
2
W

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 15 1 3 40:19 21 46
D W W W W
2 19 10 6 3 26:13 13 36
W W W W W
3 19 8 8 3 26:23 3 32
W W D W D
4 19 9 3 7 41:28 13 30
L W L D W
5 19 9 3 7 31:27 4 30
W L W L W
6 19 8 3 8 38:31 7 27
W L W L L
7 19 7 6 6 28:22 6 27
D W L D L
8 19 8 2 9 22:23 -1 26
W W W W W
9 17 7 4 6 24:21 3 25
D L D W D
10 19 7 3 9 24:30 -6 24
D L W L L
11 20 7 3 10 29:39 -10 24
L L L L D
12 19 5 8 6 28:31 -3 23
W D L D D
13 20 5 7 8 23:26 -3 22
D D D W L
14 18 5 4 9 13:30 -17 19
L L L L D
15 19 5 2 12 26:36 -10 17
L L W D L
16 20 3 5 12 17:37 -20 14
D L L L D