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ECUADOR › LIGA PRO
15.07.2026 22:00
Olimpico Atahualpa
Referee: Alex Fabricio Cajas Torres, Ecuador
Universidad Catolica
Match Timeline
LDU de Quito
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
41'
Darwin Nazareno
Universidad Catolica
🔄
46'
G. F. Allala Menendez ↔ R. Mina
LDU de Quito
⚽
59'
M. Diaz
Universidad Catolica
🔄
66'
J. Carabali ↔ J. W. Cuero Mercado
LDU de Quito
🔄
66'
Deyverson ↔ M. Estrada
LDU de Quito
🟨
67'
Jesús Pretell
LDU de Quito
🟥
73'
Fernando Cornejo
LDU de Quito
🔄
74'
J. Pretell ↔ I. Zambrano
LDU de Quito
🟨
77'
Ivan Zambrano
LDU de Quito
🔄
81'
R. Redes ↔ C. Luna Tobar
LDU de Quito
🟨
84'
Leonel Quiñónez
LDU de Quito
🔄
90+2'
F. Martinez ↔ J. Cacciabue
Universidad Catolica
🔄
90+2'
J. Fajardo ↔ B. Palacios
Universidad Catolica
🔄
90+4'
A. Londono ↔ S. Yanez
Universidad Catolica
🔄
90+2'
M. Alonso ↔ J. Chala
Universidad Catolica

Universidad Catolica vs LDU de Quito Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 51.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 57.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 57.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
51.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
57.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
57.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.4%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Universidad Catolica Win 51.7%
Draw 16%
LDU de Quito Win 32.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Universidad Catolica1.27
LDU de Quito1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica
WWDLW
33 GF / 25 GA
LDU de Quito LDU de Quito
WLDWL
32 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
1.19
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
0.81
11
BTTS Yes
9
10
Over 2.5
7
4.5
Shots on Goal
3.46

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica 21 matches
LDU de Quito LDU de Quito 27 matches
Universidad Catolica Statistic LDU de Quito
8 Wins 13
5 Draws 6
8 Losses 8
33 Goals For 32
25 Goals Against 22
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 1.19
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 0.81
11 BTTS Yes 9
15 Over 1.5 17
10 Over 2.5 7
7 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 11
4 Failed To Score 10
4.5 Shots On Goal 3.46
13.6 Total Shots 13.92
4.8 Corners 5.04
57.9% Ball Possession 49.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward LDU de Quito. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Universidad Catolica have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Universidad Catolica expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and LDU de Quito in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward LDU de Quito having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Universidad Catolica Analysis

Universidad Catolica sit 7 with 26 points after 18 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 28:18 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on B. Palacios (4 goals), Daniel Clavijo (4 goals), E. Mejía (3 goals), with creative support from M. Díaz (5 assists), E. Mejía (2 assists), B. Palacios (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

LDU de Quito Analysis

LDU de Quito arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 28 points after 18 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, while the 19:14 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Deyverson (4 goals), Rodney Redes (2 goals), Janner Corozo (2 goals), with creative support from Deyverson (1 assists), Rodney Redes (1 assists), Jesús Pretell (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Universidad Catolica won 5 times, LDU de Quito won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:27 from Universidad Catolica's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84%)
Predicted formations: Universidad Catolica 4-2-3-1 / LDU de Quito 5-3-2
H2H summary: Universidad Catolica wins 5, draws 3, LDU de Quito wins 7

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
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