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10.05.2026 16:30
Stade Joseph Marien
Referee: E. Lambrechts
Union St. Gilloise
Match Timeline
KV Mechelen
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
11'
M. Biondic · Assist: A. Khalaili
Union St. Gilloise
🟨
28'
Guilherme Smith
Union St. Gilloise
🔄
33'
K. Rodriguez ↔ B. Zeneli
Union St. Gilloise
🔄
59'
B. Antonio ↔ D. Salifou
KV Mechelen
⚽
61'
A. Ait El Hadj · Assist: M. Biondic
Union St. Gilloise
🔄
65'
Guilherme Smith ↔ L. Patris
Union St. Gilloise
🔄
66'
A. Khalaili ↔ O. Niang
Union St. Gilloise
🔄
68'
K. Mrabti ↔ K. Vanrafelghem
KV Mechelen
🟨
77'
Keano Vanrafelghem
KV Mechelen
🔄
78'
M. Biondic ↔ M. Fuseini
Union St. Gilloise
🔄
78'
K. Van De Perre ↔ I. Pavlic
Union St. Gilloise
🔄
79'
M. van Brederode ↔ B. Raman
KV Mechelen
🔄
79'
B. Boersma ↔ M. Lenaerts
KV Mechelen
⚽
90'
M. Fuseini · Assist: A. Ait El Hadj
Union St. Gilloise

Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 81.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
81.6%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
35%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Union St. Gilloise Win 81.6%
Draw 4%
KV Mechelen Win 14.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Union St. Gilloise1.47
KV Mechelen1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gilloise
WWDLW
66 GF / 38 GA
KV Mechelen KV Mechelen
WLDWL
44 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.22
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
20
BTTS Yes
23
18
Over 2.5
15
5.2
Shots on Goal
3.64

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gilloise 44 matches
KV Mechelen KV Mechelen 36 matches
Union St. Gilloise Statistic KV Mechelen
26 Wins 13
10 Draws 10
8 Losses 13
66 Goals For 44
38 Goals Against 51
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
20 BTTS Yes 23
31 Over 1.5 26
18 Over 2.5 15
11 Over 3.5 11
19 Clean Sheets 9
9 Failed To Score 5
5.2 Shots On Goal 3.64
14.3 Total Shots 9.92
5.32 Corners 4.69
48.8% Ball Possession 49.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring KV Mechelen. Union St. Gilloise arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 66 points compared to KV Mechelen in 5 on 45, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Union St. Gilloise expected to line up in 3-4-3 and KV Mechelen in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward KV Mechelen having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. KV Mechelen arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Union St. Gilloise Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 66 points from 30 games, Union St. Gilloise bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 19 wins, 9 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 50:17, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through K. Rodriguez (9 goals), P. David (9 goals), R. Florucz (7 goals), with creative support from A. Zorgane (4 assists), A. Khalaili (4 assists), A. Ait El Hadj (4 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 14 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

KV Mechelen Analysis

KV Mechelen approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 5 with 45 points from 30 matches. Across the season they have posted 12 wins, 9 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 39:37 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on M. van Brederode (7 goals), L. Lauberbach (6 goals), K. Mrabti (5 goals), with creative support from P. Pflucke (8 assists), Rob Schoofs (5 assists), M. van Brederode (4 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Union St. Gilloise won 7 times, KV Mechelen won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:18 from Union St. Gilloise's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: Union St. Gilloise 3-4-3 / KV Mechelen 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Union St. Gilloise wins 7, draws 2, KV Mechelen wins 6

Standings

Pro League , Championship Round
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 40 28 4 8 91:45 46 57
W D W W W
2 40 25 11 4 66:27 39 53
W D L W L
3 40 22 5 13 61:46 15 43
W L D L W
4 40 15 10 15 59:62 -3 33
L W D D L
5 40 13 12 15 53:57 -4 29
W L D D D
6 40 13 12 15 48:61 -13 29
L D D L W
Champions League
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League Qualification
Qualification Playoffs