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VENEZUELA › PRIMERA DIVISIóN
19.09.2026 20:00
Estadio Olimpico de la UCV
Referee: R. Cueva
UCV
Match Timeline
Carabobo FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
21'
B. Castillo · Assist: J. Berios
Carabobo FC
🟨
23'
W. Lugo
UCV
🟨
31'
J. Perez
Carabobo FC
🟨
31'
J. Zapata
UCV
🟨
38'
M. Silva
Carabobo FC
🟨
45+4'
A. Gonzalez
UCV
🔄
46'
W. Lugo ↔ M. Ruiz
UCV
🔄
46'
J. Alegria ↔ J. Araujo
UCV
🔄
50'
Y. Cumana ↔ D. Carrillo
UCV
🟨
53'
E. Castillo
Carabobo FC
🔄
60'
B. Castillo ↔ Y. Orozco
Carabobo FC
🔄
71'
D. Machis ↔ D. Meza
Carabobo FC
🔄
71'
E. Castillo ↔ M. Nunez
Carabobo FC
🔄
77'
A. Gonzalez ↔ R. Sarli
UCV
🟨
80'
M. Ruiz
UCV
⚽
82'
J. Zapata · Assist: D. De Sousa
UCV
🟨
85'
F. Sole
UCV
🔄
85'
D. De Sousa ↔ V. Rodriguez
UCV
🟨
88'
V. Rodriguez
UCV
🟨
88'
K. Silva
UCV
🟨
88'
A. Gonzalez
UCV
🔄
89'
J. Berios ↔ S. Mendoza
Carabobo FC
🔄
89'
M. Cova ↔ L. Martinez
Carabobo FC
🟨
90+2'
E. Neira
Carabobo FC

UCV vs Carabobo FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 45.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
45.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
UCV Win 53.2%
Draw 13.7%
Carabobo FC Win 33.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
UCV1.2
Carabobo FC1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
UCV UCV
WWDLW
52 GF / 52 GA
Carabobo FC Carabobo FC
WLDWL
51 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
1.5
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
20
BTTS Yes
16
20
Over 2.5
11
3.5
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

UCV UCV 37 matches
Carabobo FC Carabobo FC 34 matches
UCV Statistic Carabobo FC
15 Wins 16
8 Draws 11
14 Losses 7
52 Goals For 51
52 Goals Against 30
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 0.88
20 BTTS Yes 16
30 Over 1.5 20
20 Over 2.5 11
11 Over 3.5 7
8 Clean Sheets 15
11 Failed To Score 8
3.5 Shots On Goal 4
10.83 Total Shots 13.75
1.5 Corners 5
38.2% Ball Possession 44%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Carabobo FC. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

UCV Analysis

From their first 21 matches, UCV have collected 31 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. The record of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 32:30 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Carabobo FC Analysis

Carabobo FC are currently 8 in the standings with 30 points from 21 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 9 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 31:21 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, UCV won 1 times, Carabobo FC won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:5 from UCV's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.3%)
Predicted formations: UCV 4-2-3-1 / Carabobo FC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: UCV wins 1, draws 3, Carabobo FC wins 1

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 16 5 3 41:19 22 53
W W W W W
2 24 14 5 5 41:26 15 47
W D L W W
3 24 12 7 5 36:22 14 43
L L L W D
4
UCV Home
24 11 5 8 36:31 5 38
D W W D D
5 24 9 10 5 35:22 13 37
D W W W L
6 24 9 10 5 34:24 10 37
L W D D D
7 24 9 9 6 31:23 8 36
W D L D D
8 24 10 6 8 33:30 3 36
D L W L D
9 24 5 11 8 24:31 -7 26
D L L W D
10 24 7 4 13 26:35 -9 25
D W W L W
11 24 6 7 11 24:35 -11 25
L L L D L
12 24 7 4 13 30:46 -16 25
D W D L W
13 24 3 6 15 21:44 -23 15
D L W L L
14 24 3 5 16 21:45 -24 14
D L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga FUTVE 2