PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Estadio 25 de Noviembre

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 65.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
65.1%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
75%
-
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
-
Correct Score 1-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
UCV Moquegua Win 34.9%
Draw 25.3%
Alianza Atletico Win 39.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
UCV Moquegua1.07
Alianza Atletico1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua
WWDLW
22 GF / 31 GA
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico
WLDWL
30 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
0.92
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
10
BTTS Yes
14
12
Over 2.5
12
3.35
Shots on Goal
4.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 24 matches
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 24 matches
UCV Moquegua Statistic Alianza Atletico
6 Wins 8
7 Draws 7
11 Losses 9
22 Goals For 30
31 Goals Against 31
0.92 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
10 BTTS Yes 14
16 Over 1.5 17
12 Over 2.5 12
4 Over 3.5 8
7 Clean Sheets 6
11 Failed To Score 6
3.35 Shots On Goal 4.83
10.13 Total Shots 13.26
3.09 Corners 3.3
39% Ball Possession 45%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Alianza Atletico's more proactive style and UCV Moquegua's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Alianza Atletico. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

UCV Moquegua Analysis

UCV Moquegua are currently 13 in the standings with 25 points from 23 matches. The record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 22:29 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Edgar Lastre (6 goals), Jeferson Collazos (3 goals), Cristian Mejia (2 goals), with creative support from Yorman Zapata (4 assists), Edgar Lastre (3 assists), Nicolas Amasifuen (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Alianza Atletico Analysis

Alianza Atletico are currently 8 in the standings with 31 points from 23 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, while the 30:28 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Cristian Penilla (4 goals), Valentín Robaldo (2 goals), Guillermo Larios (2 goals), with creative support from Cristian Penilla (2 assists), Hernan Lupú (2 assists), Valentín Robaldo (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, UCV Moquegua won 0 times, Alianza Atletico won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:3 from UCV Moquegua's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (74.7%)
Predicted formations: UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1 / Alianza Atletico 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: UCV Moquegua wins 0, draws 0, Alianza Atletico wins 1
Last matches: UCV Moquegua
22.08.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Huancayo
2
0
W
16.08.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Boys
1
1
D
09.08.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
2
L
02.08.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
26.07.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
UTC Cajamarca
0
0
D
18.07.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Comerciantes Unidos
2
2
D
29.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
23.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Universitario
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
09.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
ADT
2
2
D
03.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Alianza Lima
1
2
L
25.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
2
1
W
20.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Cienciano
1
2
L
14.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Juan Pablo II College
3
0
W
03.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
21.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Cusco
1
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Alianza Atletico
0
3
L
07.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
01.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Boys
0
0
D
23.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
W
Last matches: Alianza Atletico
21.08.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Sporting Cristal
3
1
W
15.08.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
ADT
1
1
D
06.08.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Cienciano
1
0
W
02.08.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Alianza Lima
1
3
L
24.07.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
3
1
W
18.07.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Cusco
1
4
L
31.05.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
FBC Melgar
1
3
L
24.05.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
FC Cajamarca
1
1
D
16.05.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Juan Pablo II College
2
0
W
11.05.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Sport Huancayo
4
1
W
26.04.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Universitario
2
1
W
22.04.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Comerciantes Unidos
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Sport Boys
0
1
L
03.04.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Atletico Grau
2
2
D
22.03.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
UTC Cajamarca
1
1
D
15.03.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
UCV Moquegua
3
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Sporting Cristal
1
3
L
27.02.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
ADT
0
0
D
22.02.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Cienciano
1
1
D
H2H: UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico
15.03.26
H2H
Alianza Atletico
UCV Moquegua
3
0
L
Last matches: UCV Moquegua
16.08.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Boys
1
1
D
02.08.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
18.07.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Comerciantes Unidos
2
2
D
23.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Universitario
0
0
D
09.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
ADT
2
2
D
25.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
2
1
W
14.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Juan Pablo II College
3
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Cusco
1
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
23.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
W
06.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
UTC Cajamarca
2
3
L
Last matches: Alianza Atletico
15.08.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
ADT
1
1
D
02.08.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Alianza Lima
1
3
L
18.07.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Cusco
1
4
L
31.05.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
FBC Melgar
1
3
L
16.05.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Juan Pablo II College
2
0
W
11.05.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Universitario
2
1
W
22.04.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Comerciantes Unidos
0
1
L
22.03.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
UTC Cajamarca
1
1
D
07.03.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Sporting Cristal
1
3
L
22.02.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Cienciano
1
1
D
08.02.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
24.01.26
Fri
Alianza Atletico
Juan Pablo II College
0
3
L

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 15 6 1 39:13 26 51
W D W D W
2 22 12 5 5 31:30 1 41
L D W L W
3 22 11 6 5 32:22 10 39
W D L W W
4 23 11 6 6 30:21 9 39
W D W W W
5 22 11 5 6 39:26 13 38
W L D W W
6 23 11 4 8 38:33 5 37
L D L W L
7 23 11 3 9 34:35 -1 36
L W L W L
8 23 8 7 8 30:28 2 31
W D W L W
9 23 8 7 8 25:23 2 31
W D D W W
10 23 8 5 10 38:37 1 29
L W D W L
11 23 7 8 8 30:30 0 29
W L W L D
12 23 7 5 11 19:23 -4 26
W W D L L
13 23 6 7 10 22:29 -7 25
W D L D D
14 23 6 6 11 31:47 -16 24
W L D L W
15 23 6 5 12 28:40 -12 23
L L D W W
16 23 5 7 11 26:33 -7 22
L D D L L
17 23 5 6 12 33:42 -9 21
L L W L L
18 23 4 8 11 25:38 -13 15
L L D L D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2