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10.05.2026 15:00
Stadion Hartberg
Referee: A. Sadikovski
TSV Hartberg
Match Timeline
Sturm Graz
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
2'
A. Vallci · Assist: J. Gazibegovic
Sturm Graz
⚽
9'
L. Pazourek · Assist: T. Kainz
TSV Hartberg
⚽
14'
B. Markus
Sturm Graz
⚽
25'
O. Kiteishvili · Assist: E. Karic
Sturm Graz
🟨
26'
Konstantin Schopp
TSV Hartberg
🟨
44'
Jacob Hödl
Sturm Graz
🔄
46'
M. Fillafer ↔ D. Kovacevic
TSV Hartberg
🟨
51'
Jon Gorenc Stanković
Sturm Graz
⚽
56'
L. Fridrikas
TSV Hartberg
🔄
59'
A. Kayombo ↔ L. Weinhandl
Sturm Graz
🔄
59'
J. Gorenc Stankovic ↔ P. Koller
Sturm Graz
🔄
63'
S. Jatta ↔ M. Malone
Sturm Graz
🟨
71'
Luca Weinhandl
Sturm Graz
🔄
71'
T. Kainz ↔ L. Spendlhofer
TSV Hartberg
🔄
71'
K. Schopp ↔ P. Komposch
TSV Hartberg
🔄
71'
M. Hoffmann ↔ D. Korherr
TSV Hartberg
🔄
79'
L. Fridrikas ↔ J. Karner
TSV Hartberg
⚽
80'
L. Weinhandl · Assist: J. Hodl
Sturm Graz
🟨
85'
Paul Komposch
TSV Hartberg
🔄
85'
O. Kiteishvili ↔ G. Mamageishvili
Sturm Graz
🔄
85'
R. Fosso ↔ S. Hierlander
Sturm Graz

TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 89%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
89%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
35%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
TSV Hartberg Win 11%
Draw 0%
Sturm Graz Win 89%
Expected Goals (xG)
TSV Hartberg1.29
Sturm Graz1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
TSV Hartberg TSV Hartberg
WWDLW
44 GF / 38 GA
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz
WLDWL
60 GF / 54 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.36
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
1.23
17
BTTS Yes
23
15
Over 2.5
20
3.23
Shots on Goal
4.3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

TSV Hartberg TSV Hartberg 33 matches
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 44 matches
TSV Hartberg Statistic Sturm Graz
11 Wins 19
13 Draws 10
9 Losses 15
44 Goals For 60
38 Goals Against 54
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1.23
17 BTTS Yes 23
21 Over 1.5 34
15 Over 2.5 20
9 Over 3.5 11
11 Clean Sheets 15
10 Failed To Score 8
3.23 Shots On Goal 4.3
9.03 Total Shots 14
3.13 Corners 4.7
38.6% Ball Possession 51.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sturm Graz. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with TSV Hartberg expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Sturm Graz in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sturm Graz having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

TSV Hartberg Analysis

TSV Hartberg sit 6 with 33 points after 22 league matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 9 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 29:24 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by E. Havel (13 goals), L. Fridrikas (3 goals), M. Hoffmann (3 goals), with creative support from Maximilian Hennig (4 assists), Tobias Kainz (4 assists), E. Havel (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Sturm Graz Analysis

Sturm Graz arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 1 place with 38 points after 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, while the 33:26 goal ratio supports the view of poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on O. Kiteishvili (14 goals), S. Jatta (4 goals), B. Beganovic (3 goals), with creative support from T. Horvat (5 assists), O. Kiteishvili (4 assists), W. Boving (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, TSV Hartberg won 1 times, Sturm Graz won 10 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:26 from TSV Hartberg's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: TSV Hartberg 5-3-2 / Sturm Graz 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: TSV Hartberg wins 1, draws 4, Sturm Graz wins 10

Standings

Bundesliga: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 2 8 33:26 7 38
?
2 22 10 7 5 42:26 16 37
?
3 22 11 4 7 32:30 2 37
?
4 22 11 3 8 34:30 4 36
?
5 22 9 6 7 26:25 1 33
?
6 22 8 9 5 29:24 5 33
?
7 22 8 7 7 31:30 1 31
?
8 22 7 8 7 22:23 -1 29
?
9 22 8 4 10 26:30 -4 28
?
10 22 7 5 10 31:32 -1 26
?
11 22 4 8 10 22:36 -14 20
?
12 22 4 3 15 20:36 -16 15
?
Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group)
Bundesliga (Relegation Group)