ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Narva Kalev-Fama staadion
Referee: K. Laane
Trans Narva
Match Timeline
Nõmme United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
44'
Z. Beglarishvili · Assist: K. Matas
Nõmme United
🔄
46'
N. Vassiljev ↔ Y. Morishige
Nõmme United
47'
B. Chisala · Assist: K. Matas
Nõmme United
🔄
70'
B. Chisala ↔ E. Ounapuu
Nõmme United
🔄
70'
S. Merilai ↔ K. Laanelaid
Nõmme United
🟨
71'
K. Oostenbrink
Nõmme United
🔄
72'
S. Burjanadze ↔ A. Ivanyushin
Trans Narva
77'
A. Gero · Assist: G. Slein
Trans Narva
🔄
80'
D. Poliakov ↔ N. Baljabkin
Trans Narva
🔄
81'
K. Matas ↔ A. Truuvaart
Nõmme United
🟨
82'
C. Campagna
Trans Narva
🟨
90'
A. Frolov
Nõmme United
🔄
90+2'
Z. Beglarishvili ↔ I. Krasnov
Nõmme United

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.6%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Trans Narva Win 52.6%
Draw 8.6%
Nõmme United Win 38.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Trans Narva1.65
Nõmme United2.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Trans Narva Trans Narva
WWDLW
22 GF / 51 GA
Nõmme United Nõmme United
WLDWL
47 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
2.24
2.32
Average Goals Conceded
2.62
11
BTTS Yes
17
16
Over 2.5
20
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Trans Narva Trans Narva 22 matches
Nõmme United Nõmme United 21 matches
Trans Narva Statistic Nõmme United
4 Wins 8
4 Draws 2
14 Losses 11
22 Goals For 47
51 Goals Against 55
1 Avg Goals Scored 2.24
2.32 Avg Goals Conceded 2.62
11 BTTS Yes 17
19 Over 1.5 21
16 Over 2.5 20
7 Over 3.5 15
4 Clean Sheets 1
8 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Nõmme United. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Nõmme United having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Trans Narva Analysis

Trans Narva sit 10 with 9 points after 14 league matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 10:37 reflects poor form . Their attacking weight is carried by A. Gero (4 goals), S. Agaptsev (2 goals), C. Campagna (1 goals), with creative support from D. Poliakov (3 assists), A. Ivanyushin (2 assists), S. Agaptsev (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nõmme United Analysis

Nõmme United are currently 8 in the standings with 13 points from 14 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 1 draws, and 9 losses, while the 27:36 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on A. Frolov (4 goals), O. Dacosta (4 goals), Z. Beglarishvili (4 goals), with creative support from Z. Beglarishvili (4 assists), H. Jarvelaid (4 assists), A. Frolov (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Trans Narva won 4 times, Nõmme United won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:13 from Trans Narva's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 4.14 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.4%)
H2H summary: Trans Narva wins 4, draws 0, Nõmme United wins 3

Lineups

Trans Narva
Formation
Nõmme United
D. Pareiko
D. Pareiko
S. Burjanadze
S. Burjanadze
C. Campagna
C. Campagna
Eriks Santos
Eriks Santos
A. Filatov
A. Filatov
G. Slein
🎯
G. Slein
S. Agaptsev
S. Agaptsev
M. Velijev
M. Velijev
D. Poliakov
D. Poliakov
J. Doke
J. Doke
A. Gero
A. Gero
G. Lagus
G. Lagus
R. Chanda
R. Chanda
K. Oostenbrink
K. Oostenbrink
M. Palts
M. Palts
S. Merilai
S. Merilai
N. Vassiljev
N. Vassiljev
A. Frolov
A. Frolov
H. Jarvelaid
H. Jarvelaid
K. Matas
🎯
K. Matas
Z. Beglarishvili
Z. Beglarishvili
B. Chisala
B. Chisala
Trans Narva 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
27
D. Pareiko
25
S. Burjanadze
↓ 72'
5
C. Campagna
🟨 82'
12
Eriks Santos
14
A. Filatov
6
G. Slein
🎯 77'
8
S. Agaptsev
7
M. Velijev
39
D. Poliakov
↓ 80'
9
J. Doke
10
A. Gero
⚽ 77'
Substitutes
1
M. Zahharov
4
A. Ivanyushin
↑ 72'
16
S. Kondrattsev
17
A. Skinjov
22
E. Zuravljov
23
A. Jegorov
29
V. Kudriashov
47
N. Baljabkin
↑ 80'
66
E. Petkus
70
J. Imeh
88
A. Besigirskis
Nõmme United 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
G. Lagus
55
R. Chanda
26
K. Oostenbrink
🟨 71'
6
M. Palts
3
S. Merilai
↓ 70'
14
N. Vassiljev
↓ 46'
10
A. Frolov
🟨 90'
45
H. Jarvelaid
20
K. Matas
🎯 44' 🎯 47' ↓ 81'
49
Z. Beglarishvili
⚽ 44' ↓ 90+2'
11
B. Chisala
⚽ 47' ↓ 70'
Substitutes
91
R. Ortega
71
G. Purg
2
Y. Morishige
↑ 46'
9
E. Ounapuu
↑ 70'
13
A. Truuvaart
↑ 81'
19
I. Krasnov
↑ 90+2'
22
A. Radomskiy
23
K. Laanelaid
↑ 70'
Last matches: Trans Narva
21.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
0
1
L
16.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
0
D
30.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
0
3
L
20.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
1
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
09.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
2
L
01.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
0
3
L
26.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
7
L
22.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
6
L
18.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
1
2
L
11.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
5
L
07.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
3
0
W
03.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
1
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
1
W
15.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
0
1
L
07.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
1
2
L
25.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Tartu Welco
2
2
D
21.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
2
2
D
15.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
0
W
11.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Super Nova
1
3
L
Last matches: Nõmme United
20.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
3
1
W
17.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
29.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
4
L
20.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
1
2
L
15.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
1
3
L
10.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
2
3
L
02.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
3
2
W
25.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
1
W
22.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
1
7
L
18.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
1
2
L
11.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
5
1
W
08.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
1
3
L
04.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
21.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
2
3
L
14.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
7
1
W
07.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Viimsi
5
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FC Tallinn
3
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
3
3
D
01.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FS Jelgava
1
4
L
H2H: Trans Narva vs Nõmme United
13.06.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
2
L
11.04.26
H2H
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
5
1
L
24.01.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
3
4
L
21.09.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
0
4
W
26.07.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
2
1
W
23.05.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
1
3
W
30.03.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
2
0
W
Last matches: Trans Narva
20.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
1
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
01.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
0
3
L
18.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
1
2
L
07.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
3
0
W
21.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
1
W
07.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
1
2
L
25.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Tartu Welco
2
2
D
11.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Super Nova
1
3
L
07.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Paide
1
1
D
24.01.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
3
4
L
17.01.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Tammeka
1
2
L
H2H at home: Trans Narva
13.06.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
2
L
24.01.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
3
4
L
26.07.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
2
1
W
30.03.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
2
0
W
Last matches: Nõmme United
20.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
3
1
W
20.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
1
2
L
15.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
1
3
L
02.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
3
2
W
22.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
1
7
L
08.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
1
3
L
04.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
07.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Viimsi
5
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
3
3
D
24.01.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
4
3
W
18.01.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
4
2
W
H2H away: Nõmme United
13.06.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
2
W
24.01.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
3
4
W
26.07.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
2
1
L
30.03.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
2
0
L

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 13 4 1 46:15 31 43
L D W W W
2 17 11 0 6 35:19 16 33
W L W L W
3 18 9 4 5 30:15 15 31
D D L D L
4 18 8 5 5 27:22 5 29
D W W D D
5 16 7 2 7 18:20 -2 23
W W D L W
6 17 7 2 8 21:31 -10 23
W L D W L
7 17 6 1 10 33:40 -7 19
W L W L L
8 17 6 1 10 21:30 -9 19
L L L W L
9 17 5 2 10 17:27 -10 17
L D W D W
10 17 3 1 13 11:40 -29 10
L D L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga