ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Narva Kalev-Fama staadion
Referee: K. Koppel
Trans Narva
Match Timeline
Flora Tallinn
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
21'
S. Zenjov · Assist: S. Alamaa
Flora Tallinn
37'
S. Zenjov · Assist: T. Varjund
Flora Tallinn
🔄
46'
N. Baljabkin ↔ H. Rowe
Trans Narva
🔄
46'
V. Kudriashov ↔ D. Poliakov
Trans Narva
52'
S. Alamaa · Assist: R. Sappinen
Flora Tallinn
🟨
56'
H. Rowe
Trans Narva
🔄
59'
S. Zenjov ↔ D. Kuraksin
Flora Tallinn
🔄
59'
N. Kalmokov ↔ O. Pihela
Flora Tallinn
🔄
63'
↔ A. Besigirskis
Trans Narva
🔄
73'
A. Ivanyushin ↔ M. Velijev
Trans Narva
🔄
73'
G. Slein ↔ Elysee
Trans Narva
🔄
73'
T. Varjund ↔ M. Kalimullin
Flora Tallinn
🔄
79'
R. Valdmets ↔ T. Teevali
Flora Tallinn
🔄
79'
S. Alamaa ↔ A. Kaares
Flora Tallinn
🟨
80'
S. Agaptsev
Trans Narva
🟨
90+1'
M. Kalimullin
Flora Tallinn

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 52.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 46.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 12.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
52.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
46.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
12.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Trans Narva Win 33.7%
Draw 14.1%
Flora Tallinn Win 52.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Trans Narva1.09
Flora Tallinn2.05
Recent Form (Last 5)
Trans Narva Trans Narva
WWDLW
21 GF / 45 GA
Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn
WLDWL
33 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.11
Average Goals Scored
1.83
2.37
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
11
BTTS Yes
5
14
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Trans Narva Trans Narva 19 matches
Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn 18 matches
Trans Narva Statistic Flora Tallinn
3 Wins 11
4 Draws 1
12 Losses 6
21 Goals For 33
45 Goals Against 19
1.11 Avg Goals Scored 1.83
2.37 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
11 BTTS Yes 5
17 Over 1.5 13
14 Over 2.5 11
7 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 8
6 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Flora Tallinn's more proactive style and Trans Narva's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Flora Tallinn carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 21 points while Trans Narva sit 10 on 6, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Flora Tallinn having the stronger overall control. Flora Tallinn look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Flora Tallinn.

Trans Narva Analysis

With 6 points from 11 games and a place of 10, Trans Narva still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 0 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 9:31 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Gero (4 goals), S. Agaptsev (2 goals), C. Campagna (1 goals), with creative support from A. Ivanyushin (2 assists), D. Poliakov (2 assists), S. Agaptsev (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Flora Tallinn Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 21 points from 11 games, Flora Tallinn bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 7 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a 22:12 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on R. Sappinen (6 goals), S. Alamaa (3 goals), S. Zenjov (3 goals), with creative support from S. Alamaa (4 assists), R. Sappinen (3 assists), S. Zenjov (3 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Trans Narva won 2 times, Flora Tallinn won 9 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:37 from Trans Narva's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86%)
H2H summary: Trans Narva wins 2, draws 4, Flora Tallinn wins 9

Lineups

Trans Narva
Formation
Flora Tallinn
D. Pareiko
D. Pareiko
S. Burjanadze
S. Burjanadze
C. Campagna
C. Campagna
Eriks Santos
Eriks Santos
A. Ivanyushin
A. Ivanyushin
S. Agaptsev
S. Agaptsev
G. Slein
G. Slein
V. Kudriashov
V. Kudriashov
J. Doke
J. Doke
N. Baljabkin
N. Baljabkin
A. Gero
A. Gero
K. Kivila
K. Kivila
N. Kalmokov
N. Kalmokov
M. Kolobov
M. Kolobov
A. Kollo
A. Kollo
S. Tovstik
S. Tovstik
V. Kreida
V. Kreida
R. Valdmets
R. Valdmets
S. Zenjov
⚽ 2
S. Zenjov
T. Varjund
🎯
T. Varjund
S. Alamaa
🎯
S. Alamaa
R. Sappinen
🎯
R. Sappinen
Trans Narva 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
27
D. Pareiko
25
S. Burjanadze
5
C. Campagna
12
Eriks Santos
4
A. Ivanyushin
↓ 73'
8
S. Agaptsev
🟨 80'
6
G. Slein
↓ 73'
29
V. Kudriashov
↓ 46'
9
J. Doke
47
N. Baljabkin
↓ 46'
10
A. Gero
Substitutes
1
M. Zahharov
2
V. Shantenkov
7
M. Velijev
↑ 73'
16
S. Kondrattsev
17
A. Skinjov
19
Elysee
↑ 73'
26
H. Rowe
↑ 46' 🟨 56'
28
K. Miranda da Silva
30
A. Timoska
39
D. Poliakov
↑ 46'
88
A. Besigirskis
↑ 63'
Flora Tallinn 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
99
K. Kivila
2
N. Kalmokov
↓ 59'
23
M. Kolobov
3
A. Kollo
26
S. Tovstik
32
V. Kreida
18
R. Valdmets
↓ 79'
20
S. Zenjov
⚽ 21' ⚽ 37' ↓ 59'
14
T. Varjund
🎯 37' ↓ 73'
29
S. Alamaa
⚽ 52' 🎯 21' ↓ 79'
11
R. Sappinen
🎯 52'
Substitutes
33
E. Grunvald
5
A. Vaher
6
R. Veering
7
D. Kuraksin
↑ 59'
8
T. Teevali
↑ 79'
17
T. Usta
21
A. Kaares
↑ 79'
24
O. Pihela
↑ 59'
67
I. Antonov
89
M. Kalimullin
↑ 73' 🟨 90+1'
Last matches: Trans Narva
21.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
0
1
L
16.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
0
D
13.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
2
L
30.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
0
3
L
20.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
1
0
W
09.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
2
L
01.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
0
3
L
26.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
7
L
22.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
6
L
18.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
1
2
L
11.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
5
L
07.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
3
0
W
03.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
1
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
1
W
15.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
0
1
L
07.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
1
2
L
25.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Tartu Welco
2
2
D
21.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
2
2
D
15.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
0
W
11.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Super Nova
1
3
L
Last matches: Flora Tallinn
28.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
1
W
21.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
L
16.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
1
W
13.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
29.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
4
0
W
10.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
30.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
5
0
W
26.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
1
W
22.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
6
0
W
19.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
4
L
12.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
0
W
07.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
2
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
1
3
L
22.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
0
2
L
15.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
07.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
3
0
W
24.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Riga
0
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Paide
3
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Ogre United
1
0
W
H2H: Trans Narva vs Flora Tallinn
16.05.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
05.05.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
1
0
L
22.04.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
6
0
L
21.10.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
4
0
L
02.08.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
1
1
D
18.06.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
01.03.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
2
2
D
17.09.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
1
1
D
03.08.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
3
1
L
18.05.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
1
3
L
06.04.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
4
3
L
25.02.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
2
2
D
01.11.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
1
3
L
23.07.23
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
1
4
W
03.06.23
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
1
2
W
Last matches: Trans Narva
13.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
2
L
20.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
1
0
W
01.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
0
3
L
18.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
1
2
L
07.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
3
0
W
21.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
1
W
07.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
1
2
L
25.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Tartu Welco
2
2
D
11.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Super Nova
1
3
L
07.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Paide
1
1
D
24.01.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
3
4
L
17.01.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Tammeka
1
2
L
H2H at home: Trans Narva
16.05.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
02.08.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
1
1
D
18.06.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
17.09.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
1
1
D
18.05.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
1
3
L
01.11.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
1
3
L
Last matches: Flora Tallinn
28.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
1
W
16.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
1
W
29.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
4
0
W
10.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
26.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
1
W
19.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
4
L
03.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
1
3
L
22.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
0
2
L
20.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Paide
3
1
W
25.01.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
AIK Stockholm
0
1
L
17.01.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
2
D
10.07.25
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Valur Reykjavik
0
3
L
H2H away: Flora Tallinn
16.05.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
3
W
02.08.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
1
1
D
18.06.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
1
2
W
17.09.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
1
1
D
18.05.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
1
3
W
01.11.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
1
3
W

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 13 4 1 46:15 31 43
L D W W W
2 17 11 0 6 35:19 16 33
W L W L W
3 18 9 4 5 30:15 15 31
D D L D L
4 18 8 5 5 27:22 5 29
D W W D D
5 16 7 2 7 18:20 -2 23
W W D L W
6 17 7 2 8 21:31 -10 23
W L D W L
7 17 6 1 10 33:40 -7 19
W L W L L
8 17 6 1 10 21:30 -9 19
L L L W L
9 17 5 2 10 17:27 -10 17
L D W D W
10 17 3 1 13 11:40 -29 10
L D L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga