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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
14.10.2026 23:30
BMO Field

Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89.2%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Toronto FC Win 53.1%
Draw 9%
Orlando City SC Win 37.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toronto FC1.87
Orlando City SC1.76
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toronto FC Toronto FC
WWDLW
49 GF / 56 GA
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC
WLDWL
55 GF / 74 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.77
1.75
Average Goals Conceded
2.39
24
BTTS Yes
22
21
Over 2.5
24
4.37
Shots on Goal
4.96

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toronto FC Toronto FC 32 matches
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 31 matches
Toronto FC Statistic Orlando City SC
9 Wins 11
12 Draws 5
11 Losses 15
49 Goals For 55
56 Goals Against 74
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.77
1.75 Avg Goals Conceded 2.39
24 BTTS Yes 22
28 Over 1.5 28
21 Over 2.5 24
11 Over 3.5 18
4 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 5
4.37 Shots On Goal 4.96
12.07 Total Shots 12.19
4.89 Corners 4.19
45.1% Ball Possession 49.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Orlando City SC. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Toronto FC expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Orlando City SC in 4-2-2-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Orlando City SC having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Toronto FC have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Toronto FC Analysis

With 29 points from 27 games and a place of 13, Toronto FC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 6 wins, 11 draws, and 10 defeats with a 39:51 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. Sargent (5 goals), D. Sallói (4 goals), Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga (4 goals), with creative support from D. Sallói (4 assists), K. Franklin (2 assists), T. Corbeanu (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 8 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Orlando City SC Analysis

So far, Orlando City SC have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 34 points from 27 matches. The record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 48:64 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Ojeda (11 goals), A. Griezmann (6 goals), I. Angulo (5 goals), with creative support from Justin Ellis (7 assists), A. Griezmann (3 assists), E. Atuesta (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses points toward a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Toronto FC won 4 times, Orlando City SC won 9 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:29 from Toronto FC's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91%)
Predicted formations: Toronto FC 4-4-2 / Orlando City SC 4-2-2-2
H2H summary: Toronto FC wins 4, draws 2, Orlando City SC wins 9

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 18 6 3 55:21 34 60
W W D L D
2 27 14 4 9 45:36 9 46
L W W W L
3 27 12 10 5 64:50 14 46
L D D D D
4 27 13 6 8 49:39 10 45
W W L L D
5 27 12 7 8 47:38 9 43
L W D W D
6 27 11 6 10 54:44 10 39
W W W W W
7 27 10 4 13 48:64 -16 34
L L W W W
8 27 9 6 12 34:51 -17 33
L W W L D
9 27 8 9 10 41:36 5 33
D L W L D
10 26 8 9 9 55:64 -9 33
L D D L L
11 26 6 12 8 34:42 -8 30
D L D W D
12 27 8 5 14 39:43 -4 29
W W L L W
13 27 6 11 10 39:51 -12 29
L L L W D
14 27 7 6 14 32:45 -13 27
D W D L D
15 27 6 6 15 34:54 -20 24
W L L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)