JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
11.10.2026 06:00
Ajinomoto Stadium

Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 84.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
84.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Tokyo Verdy Win 10.8%
Draw 5.1%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win 84.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tokyo Verdy0.6
Sanfrecce Hiroshima2.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy
WWDLW
4 GF / 12 GA
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima
WLDWL
20 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
0.5
Average Goals Scored
2.5
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
0.75
4
BTTS Yes
4
2
Over 2.5
5
2.25
Shots on Goal
8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 8 matches
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 matches
Tokyo Verdy Statistic Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0 Wins 5
4 Draws 2
4 Losses 1
4 Goals For 20
12 Goals Against 6
0.5 Avg Goals Scored 2.5
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 0.75
4 BTTS Yes 4
6 Over 1.5 6
2 Over 2.5 5
2 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 1
2.25 Shots On Goal 8
9.75 Total Shots 21.38
3.88 Corners 7.38
43.9% Ball Possession 59.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Sanfrecce Hiroshima's more proactive style and Tokyo Verdy's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Sanfrecce Hiroshima. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Sanfrecce Hiroshima carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 17 points while Tokyo Verdy sit 19 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Tokyo Verdy have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Tokyo Verdy Analysis

Tokyo Verdy sit 19 with 4 points after 8 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 4:12 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on S. Mizoguchi (1 goals), N. Hayashi (1 goals), Y. Arai (1 goals), with creative support from S. Mizoguchi (1 assists), I. Someno (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Analysis

Sanfrecce Hiroshima approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 17 points after 8 outings. The return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 20:6, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through A. Suzuki (6 goals), S. Haller (3 goals), S. Ayukawa (3 goals), with creative support from A. Suzuki (2 assists), S. Higashi (2 assists), M. Kato (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Tokyo Verdy won 0 times, Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 5 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:13 from Tokyo Verdy's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: Tokyo Verdy 3-4-2-1 / Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Tokyo Verdy wins 0, draws 0, Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins 5

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 1 1 12:5 7 19
W W W W W
2 8 6 0 2 17:12 5 18
W W L L W
3 8 5 2 1 20:6 14 17
W W L W D
4 8 5 2 1 21:10 11 17
L D W W D
5 8 5 2 1 14:8 6 17
W W W D W
6 8 4 2 2 13:9 4 14
W D W D L
7 8 3 4 1 16:12 4 13
D W W L W
8 8 4 1 3 17:16 1 13
D L L L W
9 8 4 1 3 11:10 1 13
L W W W L
10 8 4 0 4 16:18 -2 12
W L W W W
11 8 3 2 3 7:12 -5 11
D L D W L
12 8 3 1 4 6:8 -2 10
W W L D L
13 8 2 3 3 11:11 0 9
L L D W D
14 8 2 2 4 11:15 -4 8
W L L D W
15 8 2 2 4 10:15 -5 8
D W L D L
16 8 1 3 4 8:14 -6 6
L L L D D
17 8 2 0 6 7:14 -7 6
L L L L W
18 8 1 1 6 9:12 -3 4
L L D L L
19 8 0 4 4 4:12 -8 4
L D D L L
20 8 1 1 6 7:18 -11 4
L D W L L
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League