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ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
10.10.2026 11:30
County Ground

Swindon Town vs Crewe Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Swindon Town Win 60.1%
Draw 4.3%
Crewe Win 35.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Swindon Town1.18
Crewe1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Swindon Town Swindon Town
WWDLW
21 GF / 24 GA
Crewe Crewe
WLDWL
19 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
1.36
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
8
BTTS Yes
9
10
Over 2.5
5
3.11
Shots on Goal
3.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Swindon Town Swindon Town 15 matches
Crewe Crewe 14 matches
Swindon Town Statistic Crewe
6 Wins 5
2 Draws 8
7 Losses 1
21 Goals For 19
24 Goals Against 12
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
1.6 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
8 BTTS Yes 9
11 Over 1.5 10
10 Over 2.5 5
7 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 2
3.11 Shots On Goal 3.33
9.11 Total Shots 12
4.22 Corners 5.22
44.8% Ball Possession 49.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Crewe's more proactive style and Swindon Town's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Swindon Town expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Crewe in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Crewe having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Crewe. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Swindon Town Analysis

From their first 8 matches, Swindon Town have collected 11 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Their overall return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 9:12 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Drinan (4 goals), O. Clarke (1 goals), J. Hungbo (1 goals), with creative support from S. Negru (1 assists), A. Munda (1 assists), J. Thomson (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Crewe Analysis

Crewe are currently 9 in the standings with 12 points from 8 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 6 draws, and 0 losses, while the 8:6 goal ratio supports the view of poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on L. Offord (1 goals), J. March (1 goals), J. Stephenson (1 goals), with creative support from L. Billington (1 assists), J. Tabiner (1 assists), Calum Agius (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Swindon Town won 4 times, Crewe won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:21 from Swindon Town's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
Predicted formations: Swindon Town 4-3-3 / Crewe 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Swindon Town wins 4, draws 3, Crewe wins 8

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 5 1 3 13:10 3 16
W W W D W
2 7 4 3 0 17:10 7 15
W W D D D
3
Crewe Away
9 3 6 0 11:7 4 15
W D D D D
4 9 4 3 2 16:14 2 15
L W D W D
5 9 5 0 4 14:14 0 15
L W L L W
6 8 4 2 2 16:10 6 14
W L W D L
7 8 3 5 0 11:5 6 14
D W D D D
8 9 4 2 3 15:12 3 14
W L W W D
9 9 3 4 2 13:10 3 13
L L W W D
10 9 3 4 2 11:9 2 13
D L W W W
11 9 4 1 4 10:11 -1 13
W W W D L
12 9 2 5 2 12:12 0 11
L D D L W
13 9 3 2 4 9:13 -4 11
L D L L W
14 9 3 2 4 9:14 -5 11
W D D W L
15 9 2 4 3 12:12 0 10
D W D D L
16 9 2 4 3 13:14 -1 10
W D D L W
17 9 2 4 3 11:12 -1 10
L D W D L
18 9 2 4 3 9:10 -1 10
L L L D W
19 8 2 4 2 10:12 -2 10
D D D L L
20 9 2 3 4 5:6 -1 9
W L D L D
21 8 2 1 5 9:13 -4 7
L L L L D
22 7 1 3 3 3:6 -3 6
L L W D D
23 7 1 2 4 3:9 -6 5
L W L L D
24 7 1 1 5 6:13 -7 4
L L L D L
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League