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ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
26.09.2026 14:00
County Ground
Swindon Town
Match Timeline
Accrington ST
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
1'
Josh Woods · Assist: Stefan Mols
Accrington ST
⚽
31'
Joseph Hungbo · Assist: Dan Butler
Swindon Town
🔄
45'
Liam Coyle ↔ Alex Henderson
Accrington ST
🟨
51'
Kaelan Majekodunmi
Swindon Town
🟨
66'
Josh Woods
Accrington ST
🔄
67'
Ollie Clarke ↔ Matthew Virtue-Thick
Swindon Town
🔄
67'
Paul Glatzel ↔ antwoine hackford
Swindon Town
🔄
68'
Joseph Hungbo ↔ Daniel Butterworth
Swindon Town
🔄
68'
Tyler Walton ↔ Cole Stockton
Accrington ST
🔄
68'
Stefan Mols ↔ Charlie Warren
Accrington ST
🔄
71'
James Ball ↔ James Debayo
Swindon Town
🔄
80'
Dan Butler ↔ Billy Kirkman
Swindon Town
🔄
83'
Josh Woods ↔ Joel Catesby
Accrington ST

Swindon Town vs Accrington ST Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.9%
Odds 2.22
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds 1.75
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.9%
2.22 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
1.75 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
68.4%
1.16 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.60 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Swindon Town Win 77.9%
Draw 4.7%
Accrington ST Win 17.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Swindon Town1.36
Accrington ST1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
Swindon Town Swindon Town
WWDLW
20 GF / 22 GA
Accrington ST Accrington ST
WLDWL
15 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.54
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.69
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
7
BTTS Yes
5
10
Over 2.5
6
3
Shots on Goal
4.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Swindon Town Swindon Town 13 matches
Accrington ST Accrington ST 12 matches
Swindon Town Statistic Accrington ST
6 Wins 4
1 Draws 5
6 Losses 3
20 Goals For 15
22 Goals Against 13
1.54 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.69 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
7 BTTS Yes 5
10 Over 1.5 7
10 Over 2.5 6
7 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 4
3 Shots On Goal 4.86
8.43 Total Shots 13.71
3.86 Corners 3.57
43.6% Ball Possession 47.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Accrington ST. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Accrington ST arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Swindon Town arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 9 with 10 points compared to Accrington ST in 21 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Swindon Town expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Accrington ST in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Accrington ST having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Swindon Town Analysis

From their first 6 matches, Swindon Town have collected 10 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. The record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 8:10 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Drinan (4 goals), O. Clarke (1 goals), with creative support from S. Negru (1 assists), A. Munda (1 assists), J. Thomson (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Accrington ST Analysis

Accrington ST approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 21 with 5 points from 6 matches. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 10:13 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on C. Caton (3 goals), J. Woods (1 goals), D. Matthews (1 goals), with creative support from J. Woods (1 assists), T. Walton (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Swindon Town won 4 times, Accrington ST won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:22 from Swindon Town's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.23 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.3%)
Predicted formations: Swindon Town 4-3-3 / Accrington ST 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Swindon Town wins 4, draws 4, Accrington ST wins 5

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 5 1 3 13:10 3 16
W W W D W
2 7 4 3 0 17:10 7 15
W W D D D
3 9 3 6 0 11:7 4 15
W D D D D
4 9 4 3 2 16:14 2 15
L W D W D
5 9 5 0 4 14:14 0 15
L W L L W
6 8 4 2 2 16:10 6 14
W L W D L
7 8 3 5 0 11:5 6 14
D W D D D
8 9 4 2 3 15:12 3 14
W L W W D
9 9 3 4 2 13:10 3 13
L L W W D
10 9 3 4 2 11:9 2 13
D L W W W
11 9 4 1 4 10:11 -1 13
W W W D L
12 9 2 5 2 12:12 0 11
L D D L W
13 9 3 2 4 9:13 -4 11
L D L L W
14 9 3 2 4 9:14 -5 11
W D D W L
15 9 2 4 3 12:12 0 10
D W D D L
16 9 2 4 3 13:14 -1 10
W D D L W
17 9 2 4 3 11:12 -1 10
L D W D L
18 9 2 4 3 9:10 -1 10
L L L D W
19 8 2 4 2 10:12 -2 10
D D D L L
20 9 2 3 4 5:6 -1 9
W L D L D
21 8 2 1 5 9:13 -4 7
L L L L D
22 7 1 3 3 3:6 -3 6
L L W D D
23 7 1 2 4 3:9 -6 5
L W L L D
24 7 1 1 5 6:13 -7 4
L L L D L
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League