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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
18.04.2026 14:00
Swansea.com Stadium
Referee: O. Langford
Swansea
Match Timeline
Southampton
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
18'
Finn Azaz
Southampton
⚽
20'
M. Stamenic · Assist: Z. Vipotnik
Swansea
🟨
23'
Gonçalo Franco
Swansea
🟨
25'
Melker Widell
Swansea
🟨
25'
Flynn Downes
Southampton
🔄
46'
F. Downes ↔ S. Charles
Southampton
⚽
57'
S. Charles · Assist: L. Scienza
Southampton
🔄
60'
S. Parker ↔ J. Ward
Swansea
🔄
60'
M. Widell ↔ M. Yalcouye
Swansea
🔄
60'
L. Cullen ↔ Gustavo Nunes
Swansea
🔄
68'
Z. Vipotnik ↔ A. Idah
Swansea
🔄
68'
R. Stewart ↔ C. Larin
Southampton
🔄
73'
M. Stamenic ↔ J. Fulton
Swansea
🔄
88'
J. Bree ↔ C. Archer
Southampton
🔄
90+2'
K. Matsuki ↔ J. Stephens
Southampton
🔄
90+1'
L. Scienza ↔ S. Edozie
Southampton
⚽
90'
C. Archer · Assist: C. Jander
Southampton

Swansea vs Southampton Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 72%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 64.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
72%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
64.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.4%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Swansea Win 24%
Draw 4%
Southampton Win 72%
Expected Goals (xG)
Swansea1.18
Southampton1.57
Recent Form (Last 5)
Swansea Swansea
WWDLW
51 GF / 55 GA
Southampton Southampton
WLDWL
81 GF / 54 GA
Key Stats
1.19
Average Goals Scored
1.76
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
22
BTTS Yes
32
20
Over 2.5
28
3.77
Shots on Goal
5.28

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Swansea Swansea 43 matches
Southampton Southampton 46 matches
Swansea Statistic Southampton
16 Wins 24
10 Draws 12
17 Losses 10
51 Goals For 81
55 Goals Against 54
1.19 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
22 BTTS Yes 32
32 Over 1.5 39
20 Over 2.5 28
8 Over 3.5 14
12 Clean Sheets 12
10 Failed To Score 5
3.77 Shots On Goal 5.28
12.42 Total Shots 13.96
4.67 Corners 5.52
54.7% Ball Possession 55.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Southampton's more proactive style and Swansea's more cautious structure. Swansea appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Southampton. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Southampton look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Southampton. Southampton carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 72 points while Swansea sit 14 on 57, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Swansea Analysis

Swansea sit 14 with 57 points after 42 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 16 wins, 9 draws, and 17 losses, together with goals at 50:54, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Z. Vipotnik (21 goals), Liam Cullen (6 goals), A. Idah (4 goals), with creative support from Josh Tymon (9 assists), Ronald (5 assists), Gonçalo Franco (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 10 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Z. Inoussa, J. Key, E. Galbraith unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Southampton Analysis

Southampton approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 72 points after 42 outings. They have recorded 20 wins, 12 draws, and 10 losses, with a 70:50 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on A. Armstrong (11 goals), F. Azaz (11 goals), L. Scienza (7 goals), with creative support from L. Scienza (9 assists), F. Azaz (8 assists), Tom Fellows (5 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, their record of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with M. Roerslev Rasmussen, K. Matsuki unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Swansea won 2 times, Southampton won 11 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:27 from Swansea's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.1%)
Predicted formations: Swansea 4-2-3-1 / Southampton 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Swansea 4, Southampton 2
H2H summary: Swansea wins 2, draws 2, Southampton wins 11

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8 46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
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